Gaffney particularly came out of nowhere. I for one can not wait to see whether he's got it long term, or whether he played over his head.
Correction to my Drew Bennet rambling:
1) The Branch "bad blood" point is stipulated to, though not accepted. After all, it did drag out all pre-season, so the sides must have been moderately close. "It was widely reported" doesn't do it for me, but why belabor it. Let's accept that they were close, and that therefore they were in the 6M APY neighborhood.
2) I'll also drag in the fact that expectations within the Value system need to be adjusted upward, and will be, reflecting the cap's upward movement.
3) This one's not really a correction, so much as an expectation. The market is determined every year by who is on the market. Every year some middling starter gets paid like a pro-bowler, and the rush is on. The Pats tend to lag the market, looking for diamonds in the rough, cast-offs, etc. So I would not be surprised if he signs elsewhere for a nice chunk of change, based on hopes of a repeat of his one standout season. If this is the lay of the land, we can not compete for him.
One other point, regarding Branch: Assuming he'd established his value in the neighborhood of $5-6M APY by the Pats' reckoning, I think we have to look at part of that as an "in this system" bonus. In other words, as another poster pointed out, he's trained to be a Pats receiver, and proven he can excel in the system. This would increase his value relative to the Pats, moving him into the "upper middle class" of receivers. That's still in the range of "first among equals", not superstar. You can still consider the return on your investment good, if you are factoring in that you do not lose a year of "getting on the same page," and if you are factoring in that he really was a "Patriots type player." You pay something for those certainties -- a player might perceive it as loyalty, though I firmly believe that the Pats seldom make an altruistic personnel move.
And I am still gonna try to find out what was "widely reported," and what the source was. So there.
PFnV