We Do Not Need Any More Receivers

[PatsFanInVa]

Well, I will say the first rule of Pats-watching is, be prepared to be surprised. The second rule is, you're never right. The third rule is, every year you'll think (one way or another,) "Now they've gone too far."

Anyway, I think the Pats' initial offer showed they would pay, for the value they believed Branch represented, 6M a year for 3 years, a little less per year for 5 years (but not a little more per year for 6 years, which is what Seattle ended up doing.)

I don't see the guys available this year representing that kind of value, even after you scale up for cap inflation. Of course, then there is the art of trading in upside... but again, that's incurring risk. That means the guy you're dealing with has to be willing to pony up on his end, and take some incentives in his deal... we're not dealing with Steve Smiths and Chad Johnsons here, proven talent-wise.

I do like that Bennet's had a breakout year, and then been underutilized. It's tantalizing.

PFnV

 

[upstater1]

Good for you. So what you are telling me is that when the Pats ran multi-receiver sets, Brady missed his open receivers because the Colts had 9 men in the box. So, it wasn't really McDaniels fault. It was Brady's because he couldn't find the open man when the Colts put 9 in the box.

ANd, I didn't say there were NONE. But thanks for putting words in my mouth, yet again. It seems to be the only way that you can prove your point.

Maybe next time you should consider reading your own posts before accusing people of lying.

Here ya go:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=49819&page=13

DaBruinz: They weren't playing 9 in the box. 8 maybe, but not 9. And that is generally beaten with short passes that get behind the drawn up defenders. And its also beaten by going to a 3 WR set and hitting the man that is open, generally on a slant pattern.

 

[DaBruinz]

Maybe next time you should consider reading your own posts before accusing people of lying.

Again, you put words in my mouth. I didn't accuse you of lying. But god forbid you know the difference.

Here ya go:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=49819&page=13

[/quote]

BTW, since you missed it. I didn't believe you for a second. It went right over your head. A Safety covering a TE isn't putting 9 in the box. But, you believe what you want. You've already shown you're good at that.

 

[Rob0729]

Poor execution is indicative of poor coaching. Think Pete Carroll on the '97-99 Pats. It is possible to put up great stats but have poor coaching.

Another example of coaching vs. execution is the LA Lakers. Under Del Harris, the players put up huge points but had "execution"-type mistakes in crunch time. Under Phil Jackson, with the exact same team, Kobe and Shaq won the championship and the next 2.

That is a bad example. First, the talent under Parcells that got us to the Super Bowl were getting old or worn out. Armstrong, Coates, Slade, and others were falling apart. Bobby Grier did a horrible job on personnel. He got an excellent dancer in Chris Canty, but Canty's dancing abilities were far better than the actually football abilities of most of Grier's draft picks. Remember Belichick went 5-11 with the team Grier and Carroll built. He stripped that team away by the 2001 season.

Also, Carroll was the head coach not the coordinator. He was too laxidasical and the team got too loosy-goosy and out of control. It had little to do with gameplans and calling except Carroll and his staff were too slow to call plays a lot of the time.

You can't compare the impact of a head coach to the impact of a coordinator. Belichick still runs the show. Players aren't going "up the back stairs" to Pioli's office to complain about Belichick like they did to Grier about Carroll. Carroll failed as a head coach for the same reason he is a great college coach. He is a "Rah! Rah!" guy, not a disciplinarian. The team got sloppy and players underachieved under Carroll. That isn't the case with McDaniels.

 

[Rob0729]

First, Drew Bennett will probably want more money than David Givens and the Patriots will not shell out that kind of money for an unrestricted free agent wide receiver this year. Tell me why would Dante Stallworth want to leave the Eagles in the first place. Kevin Curtis looks good when the other outside receivers on the Rams are Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt.

Actually Curtis exploded when he stepped into the starting role for an injured Isaac Bruce in 2005. So you can't say it was because of Holt and Bruce. In the four games he started for Bruce in 2005, he averaged 97 yards a game and had three receiving TDs and a rushing TD.

 

[upstater1]

Again, you put words in my mouth. I didn't accuse you of lying. But god forbid you know the difference.

BTW, since you missed it. I didn't believe you for a second. It went right over your head. A Safety covering a TE isn't putting 9 in the box. But, you believe what you want. You've already shown you're good at that.[/QUOTE]

Figures you'd try to worm out of it. Man, 9 in the box is 9 in the box. I don't care if they were sent on a mission from God. All I care about is the fact that our running game sucks.

I apologize for saying you called me a liar, ok? What the heck is the deal with you? Chill out!

 

[ATippett56]

Actually Curtis exploded when he stepped into the starting role for an injured Isaac Bruce in 2005. So you can't say it was because of Holt and Bruce. In the four games he started for Bruce in 2005, he averaged 97 yards a game and had three receiving TDs and a rushing TD.

Curtis was the beneficiary of playing second fiddle to Torry Holt, who incidentally is one the best wide receivers in the NFL.

 

[mb6592]

Again, you put words in my mouth. I didn't accuse you of lying. But god forbid you know the difference.

Jesus DaBruinz. Do you really want to come off the way you are? Do you really believe telling someone they are putting words in your mouth to prove their point and telling them they are lying is different? When you accuse someone of putting words in your mouth to prove their point you are accusing them of being less than truthful (i.e. lying)? No?

 

[Rob0729]

Curtis was the beneficiary of playing second fiddle to Torry Holt, who incidentally is one the best wide receivers in the NFL.

Curtis is exactly what the Patriots need. He is a protypical Patriots WR. He is small, fast, smart, runs great routes, has incredible leaping ability, and is freakishly strong. And I don't think he was just a product of playing next to Holt.

People always say that playing next a stud WR pads their numbers, but you look at the top WRs in the league this year and most of them didn't really help their other starting WR's stats unless they had a Reggie Wayne or TJ Whosyoumamma as their #2 WR. Many times the #2 WR gets horrible stats playing next to a stud WR. Donald Driver had 1300 yards this year and can you even name another Green Bay WR? Lee Evans had about 1300 yards too and no other WR on their team had over 410 yards. Steve Smith has been a stud WR for years and this is the first time that his #2 WR got over 500 yards and it took Keyshawn as a #2 to do it. Santana Moss has been a stud WR (other than this past year) and no other WR stepped up to even be an average #2.

Most #2 WRs who have good stats playing next to a great WR are usually good WRs in their own right.

 

[BradyManny]

Curtis is exactly what the Patriots need. He is a protypical Patriots WR. He is small, fast, smart, runs great routes, has incredible leaping ability, and is freakishly strong. And I don't think he was just a product of playing next to Holt.

Anyone have an idea of what kind of contract he'd get? I'd imagine it'd be quite reasonable, his production isn't off the charts, but I think he'd really succeed here. And like I said in another thread, he's not a guy that you worry about taking snaps from Jackson & stunting CJ's ability to grow and develop into our #1 receiver.

 

[dhamz]

Donald Driver had 1300 yards this year and can you even name another Green Bay WR?

Greg Jennings. I'd take him on the Pats tomorrow.

 

[maverick4]

For some reason lots of fans and national experts are expecting the Pats to take Dwayne Bowe (which I think would be a waste)
By the way, Deion Branch's career ypc is 13.0, so the argument about stretching the field doesn't fly with me.

 

[JoeSixPat]

For some reason lots of fans and national experts are expecting the Pats to take Dwayne Bowe (which I think would be a waste)

By the way, Deion Branch's career ypc is 13.0, so the argument about stretching the field doesn't fly with me.

You can't cite Branch's career numbers as a reason not to have a deep threat. That makes no sense.

I'd be pretty happy with the equivilent of what we had in Andre Davis and Tim Dwight in 2005 - 30 catches combined for @ 19 yards per catch. Opposing D's play us a whole lot differently if we don't have that mix in the lineup that year.

Dave Patten's 44 catches for 18 yards a catch in 2004 also had a positive impact in stretching the field. I can't help but wonder about the outcome of that season without his contribution, with D's stacking the line to stop the short to mid range pass and running game.

You would prefer to do without that contribution?

2003 does show that spreading the field can have a similar positive effect in preventing safeties from creeping up on the line in a year when Givens, Patten and Branch were all around 15 yards per catch. That's why the team did better this season towards the end of the season when the OC was using more spread formations.

2002 is the lowest yards per catch of all in recent Patriots history. How'd that work out for us?

2001 again had Patten as a deep threat - but of course Troy had a monster year with 101 catches... that was a bit of unique situation because they weren't asking Brady to make long passes in his first year, and Defenses didn't know how to defend him either, making the short, low risk passes as his bread and butter....that worked fine then, but one can't stay one dimensional and have continued success.

So its really not a question of "being convinced" that a Deep Threat is important. It is. When teams suffer injuries there are ways to adapt and being without a deep threat need not be a prescription for disaster. We came extremely close this year.

But not having depth at WR was not part of our plan going into this season, and not having depth at WR, or with a deep threat, should not be a plan heading into next season.

No team would say no to a legitimate deep threat - I can't imagine we'd be the excpetion to that rule.

 

[dhamz]

For some reason lots of fans and national experts are expecting the Pats to take Dwayne Bowe (which I think would be a waste)
By the way, Deion Branch's career ypc is 13.0, so the argument about stretching the field doesn't fly with me.

The numbers say it flies.

Brady's Yards per attempt fell a full yard from 7.8 in 2005 to 6.8 in 2006. That was 15th in the NFL in 2006, down from 6th in 2005. The 6.8 was the second lowest total of his career. 7.8 was also his YPA in 2004.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

The numbers say it flies.

Brady's Yards per attempt fell a full yard from 7.8 in 2005 to 6.8 in 2006. That was 15th in the NFL in 2006, down from 6th in 2005. The 6.8 was the second lowest total of his career. 7.8 was also his YPA in 2004.

guys arguing the yards per average as opposed to '05 is a bit misleading because in '05, we had no running game and had a lot of 3rd and longs. That does and will affect the average.

Sure we need a deep threat, hopefully CJ provides that. As far as FA, it is slim pickings.

 

[JoeSixPat]

The numbers say it flies.

Brady's Yards per attempt fell a full yard from 7.8 in 2005 to 6.8 in 2006. That was 15th in the NFL in 2006, down from 6th in 2005. The 6.8 was the second lowest total of his career. 7.8 was also his YPA in 2004.

I'm with you on it flying, but mass stats like that don't really illustrate the deep threat element all that well.

When a deep receiver is averaging 17-21 yards a catch a D is going to keep receivers back to help CBs to prevent a touchdown.

When a deep receiver is averaging 13 yards per catch, that allows Ds to take at least one, if not both Safeties and move them up towards the line.

Even if the pass is under 10 yards 9 out of 10 times its that deep threat that has such a big impact 30 times a season that keeps the D's honest and the Safeties off the backs of TEs, slot WRs, RBs and the QB.

Why would any Defensive coordinator NOT bring his safeties up towards the line of scrimmage if there's no deep threat? Why would any OC WANT the safeties to pressure his offense?

Saying "no" to having a legitmate deep threat WR makes NO SENSE.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

The numbers say it flies.

Brady's Yards per attempt fell a full yard from 7.8 in 2005 to 6.8 in 2006. That was 15th in the NFL in 2006, down from 6th in 2005. The 6.8 was the second lowest total of his career. 7.8 was also his YPA in 2004.

Jabar Gaffney came on strong toward the end of the season. Based on Brady's game logs, his YPA got noticeably better since 11/12/2006...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/5228/gamelog

You do raise a good point. YPA is a great stat and Brady's YPA did suffer in the playoffs, but he did play two of the better pass Ds in the playoffs vs SD and Indy and held his own in both games.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Plus, I might add that another reason Brady's YPA was down is because '06 was the first year of Brady's career that the majority of his completions were not going to WR. 52% of his passes went to RB/TE. In '03, 48% of his passes went to RB/TE. I think in '04, it was 44% that went to RB/TE. '05 was abnormal, Brady threw to his TE/RB only 41% of the time, the WR caught 59% of his passes.

If Brady throws 59% of his completions to his WRs in '05, and only 48% in '06, the YPA will go down. A major portion of that decline was the revolving door at WR, until we got Gaffney and Caldwell solidified into their spots at the end of the year.

 

[VJCPatriot]

The Pats defense was bad in the 2nd half true. But a major stat that you're overlooking is time of possession... Please check out the Pats drive charts in the second half.
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/drivechart?gameId=270121011

Time of Drive/Time of Possession/Where Drive Began
08:13 1:23 NE 18 3 8 Punt
04:00 2:35 IND 21 5 21 Touchdown
13:24 2:18 NE 27 3 8 Punt
10:26 2:44 IND 43 6 33 Field Goal
05:31 1:42 NE 46 5 29 Field Goal
03:22 1:05 NE 40 3 6 Punt
01:00 0:44 NE 21 4 34 Interception

Total Pats offense time of possession: 11 minutes 47 seconds. 13 points.
In CONTRAST the Colts time of possession 18 minutes 13 seconds. 32 points.

The Colts enjoyed nearly a 2:1 time of possession advantage and scored nearly 3:1 to the Pats in the second half. Our defense wasn't stopping the Colts but the Pats offense certainly was NOT helping the defense out by sustaining drives and keeping the Colts offense OFF the field.

Also note that 2 of New Englands 3 scores they began the drive in Indiana territory. It's pretty bad when you need to be starting in the opponent's territory to even manage to score.

Fact: The Colts offense was running the Patriots defense ragged in the second half.
Fact: The Patriots offense could not stay on the field, affording their defense no time to rest.
Fact: The Patriots offense was 5-14 on 3rd down conversions (36%) for the game. That is not ACCEPTABLE.
Fact: Caldwell dropped an easy touchdown pass that would have netted the Pats 7 points instead of 3 against a hot Colts offense that was making a comeback.

Opinion: Those of you who think Caldwell and Gaffney is the sum of answers at wide receiver for the 2007-2008 season are mistaken. The Patriots offensive performance in the 2nd half was inadequate. Their time of possession was woefully inadequate and did not allow their defense to rest.

The Patriots do need to UPGRADE their receiver corps. I'm not talking about adding a Randy Moss level talent. I neither would want to pay the price nor put up with his headaches/issues.

However the Pats DO need to add a GOOD wide receiver that can consistently get open for Tom Brady and allow him to make more of those crucial 3rd down conversions. A veteran free agent is probably the best option but failing that, and our front office has been notably unagressive on the free agent front lately, we'll need to hit on one in the draft. Pats usually try to hit on a receiver in the 2nd round. Until Chad Jackson comes into his own I don't see any reason for them to buck that trend.

The fact that the Colts were moving fairly easy down the field in the second half may have lost us the game.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

However the Pats DO need to add a GOOD wide receiver that can consistently get open for Tom Brady and allow him to make more of those crucial 3rd down conversions. A veteran free agent is probably the best option but failing that, and our front office has been notably unagressive on the free agent front lately, we'll need to hit on one in the draft. Pats usually try to hit on a receiver in the 2nd round. Until Chad Jackson comes into his own I don't see any reason for them to buck that trend.

Assuming Troy Brown comes back, and CJ doesn't get hurt, there is 1 or 2 spots (if we go with 6 WR).
Kevin Curtis would be nice, but we might have a chance at Jason Hill in the 2nd round or Aundrae Allison.