Watt, Jordan and (Quinn) - All Gone At 17

[NewFeep]

I love all these threads in the draft forum and enjoy reading all your thoughts and opinions. In a little less than 3 weeys we will all be glued to the draft sitting on pins and needles. I will be totally shocked, and happily so I might add, if I hear this from the annoucers, "with the 17th pick the NE Patriots select" AND, "with the 28th pick the NE Patriots select".

I'd be willing to place a wager on not hearing that announced.......

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

1) If Heyward is as good a prospect as Warren, we might very well snap him up at 17. I tend to agree with you, and would certainly be happy with the choice of Heyward at 17.

My line of thinking is messed up now after getting the PFW book and reading some less than inspiring comments on Heyward's athleticism.

The good news is we won't be stuck at 17. There's teams wanting to trade down and we obviously have the firepower to trade up. And Bill always finds a way to trade down as needed.

I'll be changing daily on all this. But as of this moment I would probably look at Castonzo. Light's been excellent but this would give us our two tackles and Light's re-signing money could go elsewhere. Barring a trade, I expect BPA at 17, we have no need to reach for a need when we pick again in eleven picks then pick again five picks later.

Something like :

1a - Castonzo
1b - Heyward or Wilkerson
2a - Watkins
2b - Sheard
3a - Ryan Williams
3b - Boling

Would fix the OL for the foreseeable future, strengthen the front seven and get a nice RB to go with Benny.

 

[Off The Grid]

I love all these threads in the draft forum and enjoy reading all your thoughts and opinions. In a little less than 3 weeys we will all be glued to the draft sitting on pins and needles. I will be totally shocked, and happily so I might add, if I hear this from the annoucers, "with the 17th pick the NE Patriots select" AND, "with the 28th pick the NE Patriots select".

I'd be willing to place a wager on not hearing that announced.......

I'll be happy to take the other side of that Bet.

...Provided of course that you flatten the playing field by giving me 100 to 1 Odds.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Belichick may not even be tempted to draft at 17, favoring to trade down. Is Heyward worth 17? Is Heyward worth 17? A trade down (to say 24) with compendation including a 2012 pick seems most likely. Most have one or both available at 28, or certainly at 24.

I think that Belichick would prefer 24, 28, 33 and 2012 pick instead of the present picks. This allows plently of flexibility later in the round.

Yes, we could trade up. If Belichick sees the value, of course he'll trade up. I just am preparing for the strong possiblity that Watt, Jordan and Quinn will be unreachable for reasonable value. BTW, I'm not sure that we'd even trade up to 12 or 13 for Quinn. Trade opportunities (up and down) should be available. Lots of teams may be wanting to draft a QB at 17.

The bottom line in this draft is that Belichick literally can take whoever he wants - assuming he's fully sold on particular guys at different points in the draft.

He has the ammunition to trade up - multiple times if need be, and will not be put off by any media talking heads saying he over-reached if its a player he truly wants.

And if he knows he can get "his" guys further back, he'll trade down with many happy to trade up with 33 being almost as big a commodity as 17 as the first pick on Day 2.

I'll also be interested to see what the market is for trading picks to teams in exchange for future draft picks. With no guarantee there will BE a next draft, if BB wants to take a gamble he can probably also trade some picks for great value in the "next" draft.

 

[Off The Grid]

I'll also be interested to see what the market is for trading picks to teams in exchange for future draft picks. With no guarantee there will BE a next draft, if BB wants to take a gamble he can probably also trade some picks for great value in the "next" draft.

That's an interesting point. Been chewing on that one, myself.

For my money, the chances of there being no Draft next year are negligible.

But that doesn't mean that it's impossible. If I understand the legal landscape correctly, we're heading into truly uncharted seas...And a complete overthrow of our current system is not entirely out of the question.

 

[mgteich]

And there could be no nfl in 2012 and it could snow in Boston in July.

Yes, there may be one GM so stupid as to draft based on the possibility that there will be no draft in 2012. Belichick will find him and make several trades with that deluded soul.

That's an interesting point. Been chewing on that one, myself.

For my money, the chances of there being no Draft next year are negligible.

But that doesn't mean that it's impossible. If I understand the legal landscape correctly, we're heading into truly uncharted seas...And a complete overthrow of our current system is not entirely out of the question.

 

[JoeSixPat]

And there could be no nfl in 2012 and it could snow in Boston in July.

Yes, there may be one GM so stupid as to draft based on the possibility that there will be no draft in 2012. Belichick will find him and make several trades with that deluded soul.

I don't think anyone thinks its likely you'd see the rookies as free agent scenarios mentioned as a possibility - but it is a possibility.

And while no one's assuming that's going to happen, it does make a draft pick more valuable in this draft than in what may or may not be the "next" draft

That's only going to increase the value of this year's draft picks that much more.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I think that Belichick would prefer 24, 28, 33 and 2012 pick instead of the present picks. This allows plently of flexibility later in the round.
.

I would use the past tense for that statement. Because of the wage scale the rules have changed and I expect to see a different draft strategy this year...maybe. I can still see trading for picks next year but I could also see trading up this year. The Patriots may very well feel that the blue chip pass rushers will be gone by 17 and decide to make a move before then. I suspect that they will evaluate which pass rushers are still around at 10 or 12 and make a decision then.

 

[mgteich]

Please post the new rookie wage scale as agreed to as part of the new CBA. Or even, please post why you think that there will be a 2011 wage scale imposed after the draft.

I would use the past tense for that statement. Because of the wage scale the rules have changed and I expect to see a different draft strategy this year...maybe. I can still see trading for picks next year but I could also see trading up this year. The Patriots may very well feel that the blue chip pass rushers will be gone by 17 and decide to make a move before then. I suspect that they will evaluate which pass rushers are still around at 10 or 12 and make a decision then.

 

[Blizzzard]

Call me crazy... But I would be very happy if we traded up to Dallas' #9 spot if CB Peterson dropped to that spot. Then take or DE at 28 (or with a small trade up) then our OL at 33 or later. I might even consider A.J. Green or J. jones instead of peterson.
Something about the idea of mccourty and peterson starting opposite each other for this team makes me feel all warm and fuzzy

 

[Off The Grid]

That's an interesting point. Been chewing on that one, myself.

For my money, the chances of there being no Draft next year are negligible.

But that doesn't mean that it's impossible. If I understand the legal landscape correctly, we're heading into truly uncharted seas...And a complete overthrow of our current system is not entirely out of the question.

And there could be no nfl in 2012 and it could snow in Boston in July.

Yes, there may be one GM so stupid as to draft based on the possibility that there will be no draft in 2012. Belichick will find him and make several trades with that deluded soul.

Like I said: "negligible."

But, yeah: Here's hoping you're right about that one idiot GM!! One is all it takes!!

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I am not as big a fan of Watt as the rest of you. He looks like Lurch out there stumbling around in the backfield. Nice first step but he is slow and clumsy after that.

I say just get some enormous moose (es) to man the DE and play 2 gap but get some speed guys at OLB to rush the passer. They already have 4 mooses in Warren Vince Brace and Stroud with other guys in reserve; the need speed from the outside.

Aldon Smith is a speed guy who can rush from the inside or outside but he is raw...

 

[bagwell368]

I don't see anyone we must have (or is a good take) at #17, I think trade down a few picks and get Wilkerson plus a pick. Unless BB must have a certain LT or OLB at 28 or 33 one or both may be dealt down as well.

I'd imagine we'd see 3-4 of the following getting drafted.

DE: Wilkerson, Jenkins,
OT: Solder, Pinkston, Gilbert, Carpenter, Barksdale
OLB: Reed
CB: House
OG: Ijalana, Moffitt, Rackley, Love
WR: Baldwin, Cobb, Toliver
RB: Murray, Helu, Green, UDFA's
S: Quinton Carter
TE: Andre Smith (blocking specialist)

 

[bucky]

I wouldn't be surprised if at least 2 of Watt, Heyward, and Wilkerson are very closely rated on the Pats' board, if not all 3. And that being the case, BB will take whichever one is at the top of the list at 17.

Jordan is the one guy who I think has the highest floor given his 4 years of experience in the 34 defense, and thus would be ranked a little higher.

Fairley is boom or bust who would be very tempting at 17, but almost certainly won't be there.

Dareus is a very safe choice for both 34 and 43 teams, but I don't think he would be a 3 down player for the Pats. Either way he'll be long gone.

That pretty much wraps up the RDE prospects in this draft and the reason I absolutely do not expect BB to trade down from 17. There is not much value in the 20s. The opportunities to trade down will come at 28 and/or 33.

If, on the other hand, BB trades up for Quinn, I will be in a state of shock and will be dragging my open jaw on the ground for about a month.

 

[Spiral]

If these three are all gone, there's a decent chance that Bowers would be there at 17.

The problem with a trade-down is the assumption that a team would be trading up to take a QB. But no team picking between 18-24 needs a QB. If you're a team looking to draft the #3 or #4 QB on your board, you probably won't need to go up to 17. If you're not thinking QB, then you're probably making the same judgment as BB--namely that there isn't anyone on the board who's worth the 17th pick.

 

[NFLroughdraft]

Belichick may not even be tempted to draft at 17, favoring to trade down. Is Heyward worth 17? Is Heyward worth 17? A trade down (to say 24) with compendation including a 2012 pick seems most likely. Most have one or both available at 28, or certainly at 24.

I think that Belichick would prefer 24, 28, 33 and 2012 pick instead of the present picks. This allows plently of flexibility later in the round.

Yes, we could trade up. If Belichick sees the value, of course he'll trade up. I just am preparing for the strong possiblity that Watt, Jordan and Quinn will be unreachable for reasonable value. BTW, I'm not sure that we'd even trade up to 12 or 13 for Quinn. Trade opportunities (up and down) should be available. Lots of teams may be wanting to draft a QB at 17.

I don't think there is any way all 3 of those guys (plus Bowers and Aldon Smith) are gone by #17.

 

[Spiral]

I don't think there is any way all 3 of those guys (plus Bowers and Aldon Smith) are gone by #17.

We can do the math. Here are the consensus top 12:

Newton
Dareus
Miller
Gabbard
Bowers
Peterson
Fairley
Tyron Smith
Robert Quinn
Amukamara
Julio Jones
AJ Green

If these guys go in the top 12, then you have these possibilities at 13-16:

Pouncey
Liuget
Castonzo
Watt
Cameron Jordan
Aldon Smith
Mark Ingram
Kerrigan

For Watt, Smith or Jordan to be available at 17, then two other guys (from this list or not) need to go before 17. If three "other" guys are picked from 13-16, then two of the three would be available. Bowers is the wildcard.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Belichick may not even be tempted to draft at 17, favoring to trade down. Is Heyward worth 17? Is Heyward worth 17? A trade down (to say 24) with compendation including a 2012 pick seems most likely. Most have one or both available at 28, or certainly at 24.

I think that Belichick would prefer 24, 28, 33 and 2012 pick instead of the present picks. This allows plently of flexibility later in the round.

Yes, we could trade up. If Belichick sees the value, of course he'll trade up. I just am preparing for the strong possiblity that Watt, Jordan and Quinn will be unreachable for reasonable value. BTW, I'm not sure that we'd even trade up to 12 or 13 for Quinn. Trade opportunities (up and down) should be available. Lots of teams may be wanting to draft a QB at 17.

I think this is very sound thinking. Along a similar vein, in my mock I have BB trading down with Seattle so Seattle can get Locker. We take DE Wilkerson of Temple in Seattle's spot.

#28 is the throw away pick. If no one is on speed dial wanting to come up for a QB, the BB goes up into New Orleans spot and takes NT Taylor of Baylor.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Dareus is a very safe choice for both 34 and 43 teams, but I don't think he would be a 3 down player for the Pats. Either way he'll be long gone.

I think Dareus projects not only as a three down player in our defense, but as a multi year pro bowler in our defense.

Also remember he comes with three years experience playing in our defense.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think this is very sound thinking. Along a similar vein, in my mock I have BB trading down with Seattle so Seattle can get Locker. We take DE Wilkerson of Temple in Seattle's spot.

#28 is the throw away pick. If no one is on speed dial wanting to come up for a QB, the BB goes up into New Orleans spot and takes NT Taylor of Baylor.

I think BB needs to take his premier DE at 17 or earlier. I can easily see scenarios where neither Wilkerson or Taylor last to 28 no less all the way into round 2. I'm not sold on Taylor as a 3-4 DE btw and I'm not considering Liuget because he's too short to play DE in our system.