Vegas is keeping the line -3 for Pats despite..

[aluminum seats]

Vegas book don't "know" anything regarding the game outcome. There is no consortium of people running the Vegas books all gathered around some table in a smoke filled room saying "ok, boys, let's sucker the public in!!"

It's really nothing more complicated than the fact that they don't want to get middled. They know that if they raise the line to 3 1/2, people will jump on Atlanta and then they would be totally screwed if the Patriots won by exactly 3 because they would have to pay out all those Atlanta bets BUT not be able to keep all the money they collected from everyone betting NE -3.

Yes. Moving off of the 3 would be a big deal.

 

[Patjew]

PJ, it is clear that you know very well that you don't know what you are talking about. In the current world we are living in, that's absolute certainty.

It's true. I know all about not knowing stuff.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Vegas book don't "know" anything regarding the game outcome. There is no consortium of people running the Vegas books all gathered around some table in a smoke filled room saying "ok, boys, let's sucker the public in!!"

It's really nothing more complicated than the fact that they don't want to get middled. They know that if they raise the line to 3 1/2, people will jump on Atlanta and then they would be totally screwed if the Patriots won by exactly 3 because they would have to pay out all those Atlanta bets BUT not be able to keep all the money they collected from everyone betting NE -3.

I really didn't make myself clear.

I'm speaking to the fact that they know a lot more about the game, match ups, players personal lives etc. than the general public.

At times they have no problem going heavy against a crowd.

Nowadays their biggest threat are teasers imho.

They clean up pretty good w/ most of those props in this game big time.

 

[Tuck]

He is right that they will shift the juice to the side where heavy money is coming if they do not want to shift the spread. However, I disagree with his claim that this is actually happening right now.

According to vegasinsider.com, as of 10:00 PM tonight (eastern time), the Westgate, MGM Mirage, Wynn Sportsbook and all the William Hill affiliates all have NE as a 3 point favorite with the standard -110 line in play.

I think the point being made is that more money is on the pats than Atlanta right now and Vegas is Okay with it presumably because the bookmakers are gambling that Atlanta can cover.

I recall something similar happening last year leading up to the Denver game. A sizable inflow of Pats money came in late and threw the balance of wagers on to the Pats side. Vegas did not shift the line.

 

[supafly]

He is right that they will shift the juice to the side where heavy money is coming if they do not want to shift the spread. However, I disagree with his claim that this is actually happening right now.

According to vegasinsider.com, as of 10:00 PM tonight (eastern time), the Westgate, MGM Mirage, Wynn Sportsbook and all the William Hill affiliates all have NE as a 3 point favorite with the standard -110 line in play.

Mine is at -125, for what it's worth to anyone. I use sportsbook.com (now sportsbook.ag).

 

[XLIX]

Mine is at -125, for what it's worth to anyone. I use sportsbook.com (now sportsbook.ag).

Offshore books tend to be a little off from Vegas (and each other). I have the Patriots at -105 right now at my book, bookmaker.eu.

Considering what I wagered, that's about an extra $200 I could potentially win.

 

[Tuck]

Bovada has the pats at -120 and Atlanta is even. Based on what's been said here I assume this means they want more money to come in on Atlanta without having to move the spread to 3 1/2.

 

[supafly]

Sup, forgive me, I'm vegas betting line ignoramus outside of the basic point spread. So you're saying the "juice" is, in effect, a shadow spread that applies only to 'pay off factor/amount'. So (at least right now) if I bet 100$ on the -3 Patriots, I'm looking at a lesser payout with the current juice level?

If my paragraph above is correct(???) we should be seeing some money shifting to the Falcons. And why do you think the basic point spread isn't moving but they appear to be using the juice to try and effect how the money is coming in?

Yes, sir. You'd be looking at a bit less if you gave the -3 vs. if you took ATL and got the +3. That is of course, under the assumption that there are other sports books who don't have the juice as -110 apiece.

On my book (largest online book), you can give the -3 and take the Pats, but it will cost you somewhere around -120 or -125 (has been varying a bit today).

In comparison, taking ATL+3 still allows you to bet with the usual juice, so technically you'd make a few more dollars than if you bet NE.

I'm not quite as sure that we'll be seeing more money on ATL, however. NE is historically a popular bet with the public, and the FG spread and big game setting may favor them with bettors, particularly the average ones. That still remains to be seen. As jmt57 points out, the line may shift a bit as Gametime approaches, versus a slow and steady movement throughout the week due to the juice forcing it to move. There's no way to predict it, so we really don't know yet.

 

[supafly]

Offshore books tend to be a little off from Vegas (and each other). I have the Patriots at -105 right now at my book, bookmaker.eu.

Considering what I wagered, that's about an extra $200 I could potentially win.

Damn, dude. Here's hoping that you're right for all involved (sans Arthur Blank and the Falcons fan base, of course!)

The only reason I've stayed with my book is because I've used them since the late '90s without any issues or hiccups. You're certainly right that there are many other books who may offer slightly better odds.

 

[mosey threetupu]

I'm getting Pats -3 at - 105. They have ATL at +3 -115 Don't think I'm waiting much longer. Much chance any significant injury news pops up this week?

 

[XLIX]

Yes, sir. You'd be looking at a bit less if you gave the -3 vs. if you took ATL and got the +3. That is of course, under the assumption that there are other sports books who don't have the juice as -110 apiece.

On my book (largest online book), you can give the -3 and take the Pats, but it will cost you somewhere around -120 or -125 (has been varying a bit today).

In comparison, taking ATL+3 still allows you to bet with the usual juice, so technically you'd make a few more dollars than if you bet NE.

Wait a second... they move the Patriots to -125 but keep the Falcons at the usual -110? That's can't be right. If the Pats are -120, the Falcons should be +100.... and if the Patriots are -125, the Falcons should shift to +105....

If they shift the Pats so much without a corresponding shift to the Falcons then man, ya gotta get outta there.

EDIT: OK I just checked sportsbook.ag.... they have NE -3 (-120) and Atl +3 (even or +100). So at least they're not ripping off both sides.

 

[supafly]

Wait a second... they move the Patriots to -125 but keep the Falcons at the usual -110? That's can't be right. If the Pats are -120, the Falcons should be +100.... and if the Patriots are -125, the Falcons should shift to +105....

If they shift the Pats so much without a corresponding shift to the Falcons then man, ya gotta get outta there.

Yes, you're right that as NE goes up (currently at -120), ATL will fall a bit (currently even money).

I will admit that isn't always the case though, specifically with some of the college games. I've certainly seen instances where one team was -120 or -125, and the other was at -105.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

65% of tickets, not 65% of total money, the money will not be that lop sided.

 

[supafly]

Much chance any significant injury news pops up this week?

That's certainly a wildcard, especially if your last name happens to be "Fryar."

 

[jmt57]

Can you explain the part about sharps jumping and pros middling? I want to understand hat your saying but I have no idea what these terms mean.

Good questions. A 'sharp' is a professional gambler. Let's take a hypothetical that does not involve this game. I'll get to 'middling in a bit.

Let's say the previous week Notre Dame won big and South Florida got hammered and lost badly. Everything the professional handicappers know about the two teams shows that this game should be even odds, perhaps Notre Dame favored by one. But there are two other factors: Notre Dame has a large following that bets heavily and USF does not; and the public remembers the most recent game and bases too much wagering on that one result.

So instead of Notre Dame being favored by no more than one they are listed as, for example, three point favorites. The money still comes in heavily on Notre Dame. The sharps like USF plus the points but sit and wait. With all that $ coming in on ND the line edges up, finally settling at, let's say six points. The sharps 'jump in' on that number on game day, knowing that the proper number is much lower and that they now have a good value at six points.

Now let's say that final score of the game is a point differential of four or five points. If I bet Notre Dame -3 points early in the week, and then USF +6 points late in the week I would win both bets. The final score was in the middle of the two point spreads; I would have 'middled' and won both wagers, even though one bet was on one side and the second bet on the opposition.

Hope that helps.