Vegas at predicting the Super Bowl

[Bobsyouruncle]

Since It's kind of slow around here I thought I would share some info I used for a statistics class a while back. I was running the numbers on whether you could predict the Super Bowl winner based solely off choosing the better defense (1970-2014), which was interesting but not the point of this post. At the end I compared my results to Vegas' success at picking winners.

Below is a graph of the biggest to the smallest point spreads. In orange is when Vegas was wrong about the winner (for instance, STL was favored 14 points vs NE but lost. Some interesting observations:

Vegas is right a lot. 32 ouy of 45 times (71%). But only in who is the winner, the point spreads are all over the place.

If you had simply picked the better defense to win every game you would be right 29 of 45 times (64%)

The greatest upset in SB history was 2001 NE.

Last year is the first game with no spread.

 

[lurker1965]

Thanks

 

[goheels22002]

The Pats are 4/1 to win the AFC in 2015, tied with the effin' Colts. I wonder where the friggin' Colts would be if their starting quarterback was suspended for four games because the Patriots had made up some lame story about them defelating their footballs (which were also under the allowable limit in the AFCCG.)

The Pats over/under for wins is 10-1/2. Hmm. The over's a lock if Garoppolo goes .500 as a reliever. Brady's going to incinerate the NFL when he gets back.

The Pats are 4th in line to win the 2016 Super Bowl at 10-1. Grab a piece of that action while you can.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

 

[JJC]

Don't forget that when they say Vegas, what they really mean is the collective wisdom of gamblers. The bookies set a line, which moves according to how the gamblers place their bets. More money on the underdog and the line gets tighter. More money on the favorite and the spread widens. This is done to try and balance the amount of money on either side, so it balances out in the end. The market makers then shave crumbs off that to pocket. So, the final spread at game time is a function of how the betting public has moved the line by voting with their dollars. There are no geniuses sitting in a lounge smoking cigars and drinking bourbon who can see the future.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Don't forget that when they say Vegas, what they really mean is the collective wisdom of gamblers. The bookies set a line, which moves according to how the gamblers place their bets. More money on the underdog and the line gets tighter. More money on the favorite and the spread widens. This is done to try and balance the amount of money on either side, so it balances out in the end. The market makers then shave crumbs off that to pocket. So, the final spread at game time is a function of how the betting public has moved the line by voting with their dollars. There are no geniuses sitting in a lounge smoking cigars and drinking bourbon who can see the future.

Yeah, absolutely. This is the collective wisdom of bettors, which isn't bad.

 

[XLIX]

The Pats are 4/1 to win the AFC in 2015, tied with the effin' Colts. I wonder where the friggin' Colts would be if their starting quarterback was suspended for four games because the Patriots had made up some lame story about them defelating their footballs (which were also under the allowable limit in the AFCCG.)

The Pats over/under for wins is 10-1/2. Hmm. The over's a lock if Garoppolo goes .500 as a reliever. Brady's going to incinerate the NFL when he gets back.

I was at the Westgate this past weekend and they had the Patriots O/U at 10 (-150).

 

[Ross12]

How the f*** are the damn COLTS the 3rd highest favorite to win the SB?! Ahead of the Patriots?!?? How freakin' stupid is that... I would think the Patriots with GENO SMITH at QB for 4 games and Brady for 12 would still outpace the Colts, let alone Jimmy G!!!

Good lord is that dumb. Framegate has really erased everyone's memory of how badly the Colts were squashed, hasn't it? Newsflash Vegas: Brady is supended for the first four games, not the last four.

I would take the damn Cardinals to win the SB before I took the Colts!

 

[tuckeverlasting]

I was at the Westgate this past weekend and they had the Patriots O/U at 10 (-150).

please don't say gate.

 

[ausbacker]

How the f*** are the damn COLTS the 3rd highest favorite to win the SB?! Ahead of the Patriots?!?? How freakin' stupid is that... I would think the Patriots with GENO SMITH at QB for 4 games and Brady for 12 would still outpace the Colts, let alone Jimmy G!!!

Good lord is that dumb. Framegate has really erased everyone's memory of how badly the Colts were squashed, hasn't it? Newsflash Vegas: Brady is supended for the first four games, not the last four.

I would take the damn Cardinals to win the SB before I took the Colts!

The Colts are high because they drafted a WR in round 1 to play as their 8th receiving option. Andrew Luck is their new DT and will be stopping the Patriots run game all by himself.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Vegas tends to underrate the win totals for elite QBs but overrate their Super Bowl odds. At least that has been the story in recent years. Would I put money on it? No, not stupid enough to try and outthink those pros.

 

[XLIX]

Vegas tends to underrate the win totals for elite QBs but overrate their Super Bowl odds. At least that has been the story in recent years. Would I put money on it? No, not stupid enough to try and outthink those pros.

I'm probably heading to Vegas again for the 4th and I have to say I am tempted to place a big bet on the Patriots Over 10. If you think about it, the only way it loses is if they go 9-7 or worse, something we haven't seen since 2002.

The line may go up between now and then though, especially if Brady's suspension is lifted.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

Wasn't Vilma's suspension stayed while his case was pending in court? If Brady won't accept anything less than a complete vacate of his suspension and the suspension is stayed while Brady seeks relief in a legal action, I'd definitely take the over if it's 10 games.