Trading 28 To The Chargers

[mgteich]

One preseumes that the Chargers have a couple of players in mind. If one is there, what would we get?

OPTION 1
#50 plus #61
perhaps we'd have to also give our 5th to make it even.

OPTION 2
#50 plus a 2012 2nd plus another pick in this draft (a 3rd or 4th)
===============================================

It seems possible that the chargers might want to make this deal before the draft starts or certainly before the first half ends. Otherwise, they might get in a bidding war if there is a run on quarterbacks or OT's.

Also the patriots might be willing, since there may be no interest in 28 from others if the quarterback run is in the beginning of the second round (where the patriots could also benefit).
================================================

BOTTOM LINE
Keeping 28 is extremely risky if Belichick isn't satisfied with those likely to be there for the patriots. There may be many trading partners, or they may be hard to find.

STRATEGY FOR ROUND ONE
1) Do whatever we need to in order to get our stud DE with our 17, adding whatever pick we need to (hopefully not having to use 33), perhaps addiong nothing and drafting at 17.
2) Trade 28 for a 2nd rounder and other considerations.
3) Move on to Round 2.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

I doubt we'd make the deal now, I imagine our "interest" was in finding trade partners for once the draft has started. My guess is it would be for trading up from #17 to #12 or so by using 2b or one of the acquired picks to move up but maintain a strong presence in the second round.

I would assume that Julio Jones, JJ Watt and Cameron Jordan would be the targets of interest.

 

[stinkypete]

I keep reading about this. Who exactly do the Chargers want at that position?

 

[Sciz]

I keep reading about this. Who exactly do the Chargers want at that position?

Wilkerson makes tons of sense if they go elsewhere at 18

 

[MaineMan]

I keep reading about this. Who exactly do the Chargers want at that position?

Y'know, the first question I ask when I hear, "We could trade our #28 (or #33) to Team X for the #nn and #nnn" is, "And what specifically does Team X get out of the deal?"

 

[Water Boy]

I doubt we'd make the deal now, I imagine our "interest" was in finding trade partners for once the draft has started.

I agree. I don't see the advantage of consumating a the deal prior to the draft.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I agree. I don't see the advantage of consumating a the deal prior to the draft.

Yup. BB will only want to trade if someone he wants is still available and there is a threat that some team ahead of him wants that player. The trade for Gronk is a good example; when BB saw that he was still available at 42 and the the Ravens wanted him then BB made the deal.

 

[scout]

Yup. BB will only want to trade if someone he wants is still available and there is a threat that some team ahead of him wants that player. The trade for Gronk is a good example; when BB saw that he was still available at 42 and the the Ravens wanted him then BB made the deal.

Makes me wonder how much the grapevine effect plays into trading up or nabbing a player. If team Y gets a call from team X, about trading places, and declines. Would team Y, who is tight with BB, give him a heads up? Might for future considerations? At least in some round about way, with all the phone conversations taking place, a puzzle is being formed which calculates what another team might be doing.

 

[IllegalContact]

there's no risk for the pats to keep #28. they take who they want to take, and then deal away #33 if the value is not there.......

the pats won't get good value for 28 in a trade now......they would likely get more the day of the draft if the right player is there for a particular team.

worse comes to worse, they wind up with watkins and someone like phil taylor.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

If the Patriots want Aldon Smith (certainly fills a need) then they would have to trade up to 9 or thereabouts. If that is the case then they will see how far he falls and see if he ends up in range. If he is in range then they will look to see who is ahead of them and whether they will pick Smith. If so then they will make the deal.

 

[VJCPatriot]

If the Patriots want Aldon Smith (certainly fills a need) then they would have to trade up to 9 or thereabouts. If that is the case then they will see how far he falls and see if he ends up in range. If he is in range then they will look to see who is ahead of them and whether they will pick Smith. If so then they will make the deal.

The Patriots will NOT move up for Aldon Smith. It just does not fit BB's draft value philosophy. He does not gamble with early 1st round picks or give up value to do so. If anything we've seen that BB favors trading down if he feels he can still get his guy. See Mayo, McCourty, etc.

 

[mgteich]

Would you rather have #50 plus #61 or have #28?

In the end, unless we want Houston or Reed, I suspect that we will find a trading partner, even if we only ending up moving down just a few spots. Locker, Ponder, Mallett, and the five tackles may ALL be picked for by 33. Maybe one or two will be left, but I could see the pats not making their second pick until they are all gone.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

One preseumes that the Chargers have a couple of players in mind. If one is there, what would we get?

OPTION 1
#50 plus #61
perhaps we'd have to also give our 5th to make it even.

OPTION 2
#50 plus a 2012 2nd plus another pick in this draft (a 3rd or 4th)
===============================================

It seems possible that the chargers might want to make this deal before the draft starts or certainly before the first half ends. Otherwise, they might get in a bidding war if there is a run on quarterbacks or OT's.

Also the patriots might be willing, since there may be no interest in 28 from others if the quarterback run is in the beginning of the second round (where the patriots could also benefit).
================================================

BOTTOM LINE
Keeping 28 is extremely risky if Belichick isn't satisfied with those likely to be there for the patriots. There may be many trading partners, or they may be hard to find.

STRATEGY FOR ROUND ONE
1) Do whatever we need to in order to get our stud DE with our 17, adding whatever pick we need to (hopefully not having to use 33), perhaps addiong nothing and drafting at 17.
2) Trade 28 for a 2nd rounder and other considerations.
3) Move on to Round 2.

At this point in the draft process, I am thinking that unless someone does something stupid, BB has a great idea of where he is going with pick #17 and reasonably sure that player will be there at #17.

For the past two months I have thought that player to be DE Wilkerson from Temple or maybe OT Costanza from BC. Depending on which of these two deep first round positions, BB decides to tap into.

So that leaves #28 as a pure throw away pick for BB. I think he hangs onto #33 because it is an extreme value pick. ie: second round money if no CBA extension reached by draft day.

The problem with trading #28 is that if no CBA deal is reached, trading for players is out and trading for 2012 picks is very risky.

So in my mind BB will try once again this year to get as many second round picks as possible since they usually represent great value to him. (Chad Jackson aside that is)

So in summary Denver and San Diego represent great trading partners for BB if either one has the hots for a player available at #28.

 

[patchick]

I agree. I don't see the advantage of consumating a the deal prior to the draft.

The only scenarios I can imagine that could possibly make it advantageous are:

- BB is convinced that's going to be a lousy spot in the draft and wants to make sure he's not stuck there when the time comes.

- BB expects to trade up from 17 and possibly 33, and wants all the pieces in place to do so. E.g. turning 17, 28, 33 & 60 into 11, 19 & 51.

:confused2:

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The only scenarios I can imagine that could possibly make it advantageous are:

- BB is convinced that's going to be a lousy spot in the draft and wants to make sure he's not stuck there when the time comes.

- BB expects to trade up from 17 and possibly 33, and wants all the pieces in place to do so. E.g. turning 17, 28, 33 & 60 into 11, 19 & 51.

:confused2:

Given all the labor unrest, I think BB would be foolish to finalize a deal before the draft under any circumstance, but I think he will have about 15 teams on speed dial with pre-draft potential deals outlined and ready to pull the trigger at the appropriate time on draft day.

 

[patchick]

I think he hangs onto #33 because it is an extreme value pick. ie: second round money if no CBA extension reached by draft day.

Ochmed, I don't see that dramatic value. Last year pick #32 signed for 5 years at an average of $1.8 million/year, while pick #33 signed for 4 years @ $1.575 million/year. Given the longer duration, those are pretty comparable.

 

[patman52]

I think 28 and 33 are great places to be in this draft. Buffalo, Arizona, Cinci, Minn, Miami, SF, Washington, Tenn are all teams that need a qb. There is a good chance the the #3 qb will be there at 28 resulting in a lot of moving jockeyng around.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

The Patriots will NOT move up for Aldon Smith. It just does not fit BB's draft value philosophy. He does not gamble with early 1st round picks or give up value to do so. If anything we've seen that BB favors trading down if he feels he can still get his guy. See Mayo, McCourty, etc.

I am not so sure of that; he has traded up plenty of times in the past (with mixed results: e.g. Chad Jackson at one extreme and Gronk at the other).

As far as draft philosophy you are talking about BB's old draft philosophy; the rules are different this year if there is a rookie wage scale and there will almost certainly be some for of wage scale. Early picks are a lot more desirable than they used to be.

As far as Aldon Smith it all depends how far down he gets. If he is available at 12 or 14 then I could see a move (although he would have to get by a number of teams looking for pass-rush help). Moving up to 9 does seem far-fetched now that I think of it.