Trade up to 16?

[drew4008]

If White/Williams falls to 16, should we trade up to get him?

The Dolphins have that pick, and I'm sure Belichick and Saban wouldn't have a problem making a deal for the right price. Minnesota is there at 17, and they'll definitely take a RB if he falls. Sooo... is it possible?

 

[spacecrime]

If White/Williams falls to 16, should we trade up to get him?

The Dolphins have that pick, and I'm sure Belichick and Saban wouldn't have a problem making a deal for the right price. Minnesota is there at 17, and they'll definitely take a RB if he falls. Sooo... is it possible?

Someone (Rookboston?) posted an excellent analysis of B's general trade-up history a few years ago, which basically was that he targets a group of several players, one of whom he wants to get. If, say, thaere are four players, one of whom he wants, and the third is taken at 17, he will immediately try to trade up to get the last one. However, if two or three are still available at 21, he will trade down, figuring he can trade back up later on. This ensures never grabbing a guy sooner than you have to, does a better job a getting a guy you need, and results in extra late round picks.

Also, an article a couple years ago said there BB and SP list the "impact" players in a draft, of which there are usually 15 to 20. They say that palyers do not form a continuum, but have plateaus of "impact." The idea is to get an impact player with the first round pick, and whenever possible pick at the bottom of each plateau group, rather than at the top. That way you pay less for comparable players, allowing you to spend the money on the lower third of the roster.

 

[stevedogc]

Someone (Rookboston?) posted an excellent analysis of B's general trade-up history a few years ago, which basically was that he targets a group of several players, one of whom he wants to get. If, say, thaere are four players, one of whom he wants, and the third is taken at 17, he will immediately try to trade up to get the last one. However, if two or three are still available at 21, he will trade down, figuring he can trade back up later on. This ensures never grabbing a guy sooner than you have to, does a better job a getting a guy you need, and results in extra late round picks.

Also, an article a couple years ago said there BB and SP list the "impact" players in a draft, of which there are usually 15 to 20. They say that palyers do not form a continuum, but have plateaus of "impact." The idea is to get an impact player with the first round pick, and whenever possible pick at the bottom of each plateau group, rather than at the top. That way you pay less for comparable players, allowing you to spend the money on the lower third of the roster.

How would you define an "impact" player? What I mean is would BB pick up a player in the 1st round that is an impact player, but still might Be a year or two away from starting full time. Limiting his contrabutions to the team the follwing year. Does and impact player have to be that the year after he was drafted?

A scenario that comes to mind is a guy like Manny Lawson. From everything I have read, he was a monster in the Senior Bowl and during the practices. It looks like he will turn out to be a very solid, if not excellent pro player. But, in a BB type defense, he would more likely play OLB, which may require some time to learn all aspects of that position. Not to mention, I can't see him starting over Willie or Colvin. So he may not be a full time players until Willie retires.

That is the reason I feel the Pats won't take him, despite his obvious talent. I think they have other holes to fill in which they need to find a player who could start next year.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Drew,

Since I don't see RB as a "need" in this draft, no. Frankly, as good as they might be, I don't consider either a first round value for the Patriots' system.

Stevedogc,

"Impact" may not be the most accurate term, "contributor" would be a better choice. For example: Vince Wilfork, given the level of competition he played against, his size and athleticism, plus whatever intangibles were identified in the interview process, it was safe to say Vince could/would contribute in his first year. Note he shared a rotation with a stop-gap veteran before taking over the position as his own.

Your example of Lawson could work as a situational pass rusher and special teams player. This would be an example of drafting in round one for the athletic talent needed for the Patriot "system". Risk/reward has to be measured in each round, why draft a 'starter' who hasn't won the job in Training Camp? Based on my research to date, Lawson would be a good value at 21 with his game performance against good competition. The personnel people have to determine if he can be turned into a weight room junkie who takes his breaks and meals in the tape room; can he absorb BB's scheme and execute it correctly? Scout's homework, fun!

 

[mgteich]

I think that we are much better off looking for 2007 starters or 2007 major contibuters in the draft than looking for 2006 starters.

Also, please list all the positions where we NEED a starter from the draft. To NEED a starter from the draft is to be a rebuilding team. We need to re-sign or replace Vinatieri and Givens. We need to decide on a free safety for the first half of the year. I don't think any of these three starters will come from the draft.

There is one position that we MIGHT get a starter: RT/RG. This layer would not be counted on to start. The HOPE would be that the player might start.

How would you define an "impact" player? What I mean is would BB pick up a player in the 1st round that is an impact player, but still might Be a year or two away from starting full time. Limiting his contrabutions to the team the follwing year. Does and impact player have to be that the year after he was drafted?

A scenario that comes to mind is a guy like Manny Lawson. From everything I have read, he was a monster in the Senior Bowl and during the practices. It looks like he will turn out to be a very solid, if not excellent pro player. But, in a BB type defense, he would more likely play OLB, which may require some time to learn all aspects of that position. Not to mention, I can't see him starting over Willie or Colvin. So he may not be a full time players until Willie retires.

That is the reason I feel the Pats won't take him, despite his obvious talent. I think they have other holes to fill in which they need to find a player who could start next year.

 

[p8ryts]

Yes trade up for them

There are three players I can see trading up for:

White
Williams
Greenway

BB doesn't usually for small backs so I don't know if he would go for Williams or not, but he looked pretty good to me.

 

[ayjackson]

There are three players I can see trading up for:

White
Williams
Greenway

BB doesn't usually for small backs so I don't know if he would go for Williams or not, but he looked pretty good to me.

agreed, but not huff?