Tom Brady to Brandon Lloyd: A Concern..... or Not?

[Ring 6]

Not really. Any defense that's smart will dedicate a CB and a Safety to him. The Pats don't have anyone else (right now) that's going to beat them downfield.

First of all, we will face a lot of zone coverage, so no one is dedicated to anyone.
Secondly, if you are doubling Lloyd with a safety, who is covering Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez.
I hope they double Lloyd every play this season. We will shatter the 2007 scoring record.

 

[Kontradiction]

For that to work you really need a line that can cause pressure without blitzing. This is where the OL concerns rear their ugly head, because until they gel, more teams will be able to do just that. If the OL gels, teams are going to have to get more aggressive, which means each of those zones is going to be a little bit bigger.

I never made mention of how well it will work. Obviously, that gameplan will work more efficiently with better defenses, such as the Ravens/Texans/49ers. But teams such as the Titans are going to have to blitz more to throw pressure in Brady's face. But back to the main point, defensive coordinators would still be crazy not to dedicate two guys to the only downfield threat the Patriots have. Bigger chunks of yardage = faster scores = more points.

 

[Ring 6]

I think it's fair to be concerned about this situation. What's interesting about this is what Brady said weeks ago, and how it appLlies to the Patriots system. That system is about "The primary receiver is the open man", aLlbeit modified in the sense of having numbered reads. With Lloyd, though, the system can't work that way. He doesn't get the kind of separation that Llends itself to such an approach. Brady has to aLlter the approach he's taken for most of his career in order for this to work.

In essence, Brady to Lloyd is going to be similar to Brady to Moss, circa 2010, where Brady is going to have to force the football to an unopen receiver and hope that the receiver wins the fight for the baLlLl. If Brady doesn't Llearn to successful read when Lloyd is in the win position in terms of the throw, we couLld see his interception rate go up.

I expect that the two of them wiLlLl eventuaLlLly work it out, but we may see some growing pains for the first few weeks of the season.

Really what you are saying (if we accept your assumption that Lloyd doesnt get 'open') is that Brady needs to use a different definition of 'open' with Lloyd. I seriously doubt Brady will throw Ints in order to force the ball to Lloyd.
The misconception that he forced it to Moss (based on him throwing a lot to Moss when he was man on man vs Cromartie leading to failure when Moss quit on the plays) is overwhelmed by evidence that Brady is less apt to force the ball than any NFL QB.

 

[Rob0729]

Not if the defense is flooding the middle of the field and the flats in the zone. Any defense playing Lloyd would be suicidal to not dedicate a corner and a safety to him. You take your chances with the Gronks, Welkers, and Herandez's, as good as they are, and a slower death. If Lloyd can consistently get open vs. one on one coverage downfield, the Patriots are suddenly breaking off chunks of yardage and scoring at a quicker rate (thus shortening the field for those TE's and Welker). Any defensive coordinator would be right to dedicate two guys to Lloyd, cut off the downfield threat, and force the Pats to sustain longer drives so that their offense has a chance of keeping up on the other side of the ball.

EDIT: Pretty dumb and dorky example, but think about it in terms of "Return of the Jedi". Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez are the Star Destroyers, Lloyd is the Death Star. Going head on at the Star Destroyers, you won't last long. But you'll last longer than you will against that Death Star.

I agree with Andy. The Pats will be facing a lot of zone. They have too many weapons to play man on them. The difference this year from last is that teams will have to play two safeties deep to account for the deep threat of Lloyd unlike last year where they could play one safety deep to be the safety value if one of the TEs or Welker broke through the first and/or second line of defense.

I think any team playing the Pats man would be silly to consistently double Lloyd. I think Hernandez led the league in yards after the first hit and Gronk and Welker weren't far behind them. By leaving mismatches on the field in that area will make what was a potent offense last year even more potent.

Besides, how can they flood the field with doubling Lloyd. You assume teams will rush four defenders and still leave the other safety deep to avoid giving up the TD. That will leave 4 defenders to flood the field to stop three of the Pats best offensive weapons.

 

[Deus Irae]

Really what you are saying (if we accept your assumption that Lloyd doesnt get 'open') is that Brady needs to use a different definition of 'open' with Lloyd. I seriously doubt Brady will throw Ints in order to force the ball to Lloyd.
The misconception that he forced it to Moss (based on him throwing a lot to Moss when he was man on man vs Cromartie leading to failure when Moss quit on the plays) is overwhelmed by evidence that Brady is less apt to force the ball than any NFL QB.

First, it's not a misconception that Brady forced it to Moss. It's a reality that Brady forced it to Moss.

Second, I don't think we have to use a different definition of "open" for Lloyd. Open is open and covered is covered. Brady will have to figure out what situations allow for him to throw to a covered Lloyd, just as he had to figure out what situations allowed for him to throw to a covered Moss.

Third, it's not my assumption that Lloyd doesn't get open, and that wasn't what I claimed. What I stated was "He doesn't get the kind of separation that Llends itself to such an approach", and it's Brady's words that I base that on:

"It's just sometimes a matter of, it doesn't really look like he's open then -- boom -- he springs open on you," Brady explained. "Sometimes you think he's covered and you get off him and then you watch the film and you're like, 'How did he get open?' He knows what he's doing to set the guy up and he makes the move and you gotta trust that he's gonna beat the guy and he does. It's just a matter of, 'Don't let your eyes take away from what he's doing in his route' because you know he's gonna get open at some point."...

... Brady, who dismissed the idea that Lloyd and Randy Moss were similar players, it will take time to "understand where he likes the ball placed and where he gets open."

http://www.csnne.com/football-new-england-patriots/patriots-talk/Brady-adjusting-to-Lloyds-unique-skills?blockID=724260

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I have not been so assured or impressed thus far in preseason to think that Lloyd will not be another Ocho or some of the other guys that have come and left NE.

I really don't see any reason or proof to think he is going to be the best WR since Welker and the early Pats version of Moss.

Just because he is familiar with Josh and his program means diddly when the games mean something.

I am expecting about 35 catches with 450-550 yards and 4 TDs from Lloyd...hopefully not less and hopefully more.

I think the main man catching the ball this season will not be Gronk or Welker......This is going to be Hernandez's time to shine....Gronk and Welker will put up numbers,but Hernandez will be THE MAN.

 

[Kontradiction]

I agree with Andy. The Pats will be facing a lot of zone. They have too many weapons to play man on them. The difference this year from last is that teams will have to play two safeties deep to account for the deep threat of Lloyd unlike last year where they could play one safety deep to be the safety value if one of the TEs or Welker broke through the first and/or second line of defense.

I think any team playing the Pats man would be silly to consistently double Lloyd. I think Hernandez led the league in yards after the first hit and Gronk and Welker weren't far behind them. By leaving mismatches on the field in that area will make what was a potent offense last year even more potent.

Besides, how can they flood the field with doubling Lloyd. You assume teams will rush four defenders and still leave the other safety deep to avoid giving up the TD. That will leave 4 defenders to flood the field to stop three of the Pats best offensive weapons.

Not really, they can still give us Cover-1 looks with one safety rolling over to Lloyd to prevent the deep strike while the other safety shadows either one of Hernandez or Welker. If I'm a defensive coordinator, I realize that even two guys can't cover a healthy Gronk most so I take my chances with roaming with one guy in the middle or in the flats. I let the second safety shadow either Welker or Hernandez.

You sound like you're making the mistake of thinking that I'm stating that our offense isn't really good. It is. But we only have one true blue "deep" or outside the numbers threat right now with the rest being possession receivers. Defensive coordinators would be downright dumb not to cut off the only outside the numbers threat with a safety. You should be agreeing that this is what would most likely happen because, as you say, it opens up the field even more for our other guys.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Aside from LLoyld replacing Branch, who is only a phone call away, there is another dimension not available last season.

The Pats running game was not something to be truly feared with tough, but not game breaking Lawfirm. It could be this season, with more explosive Ridley and Vereen, if the young interior linemen can move their man inside, and get outside as pulling guards.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Aside from LLoyld replacing Branch, who is only a phone call away, there is another dimension not available last season.

The Pats running game was not something to be truly feared with tough, but not game breaking Lawfirm. It could be this season, with more explosive Ridley and Vereen, if the young interior linemen can move their man inside, and get outside as pulling guards.

Vereen may not see the field much this year if this injury thing persists

Except a lot of Woodhead and Bolden behind Ridley.

If Ridley doesn't produce this offense will be heavily one dimensional

 

[Rob0729]

Not really, they can still give us Cover-1 looks with one safety rolling over to Lloyd to prevent the deep strike while the other safety shadows either one of Hernandez or Welker. If I'm a defensive coordinator, I realize that even two guys can't cover a healthy Gronk most so I take my chances with roaming with one guy in the middle or in the flats. I let the second safety shadow either Welker or Hernandez.

You sound like you're making the mistake of thinking that I'm stating that our offense isn't really good. It is. But we only have one true blue "deep" or outside the numbers threat right now with the rest being possession receivers. Defensive coordinators would be downright dumb not to cut off the only outside the numbers threat with a safety. You should be agreeing that this is what would most likely happen because, as you say, it opens up the field even more for our other guys.

I don't think you can do a Cover-1 against the Pats if Lloyd is a true deep threat. Teams did a lot of Cover-1 last year and needed that safety deep to pick up Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez after they broke the first tackle . If you do a Cover-1 and roll the safety to cover Lloyd, you risk a TD off a 5 yard pass on virtually every play considering all the Pats other main targets have shown repeatedly that they are adept of shedding tackles and gaining extra yards. They need a safety deep whose only job is to stop Gronk, Hernadez, or Welker from turning a short pass into a TD. That safety needs to be the last line of defense. You will rarely see a Cover-1 with the safety proving over the top help to Lloyd or Gronk, Lloyd, and/or Welker will have a lot of 30 plus yard TDs.

 

[robbomango]

While that is true, I remember hearing reports from training camp where Brady-to-Moss, deep, was killing everyone, from the first snap on the first day. There was obvious good chemistry.

I wanted to hear something like that coming from Brady-Lloyd this year, but I never did. I hope I will soon, though!

IIRC there were very good reports about Brady-to-Lloyd from the practices during TC, it just didn't show up in the preseason games as expected. As pointed out the O-line wasn't helping. I was encouraged to see TB keep going at Lloyd in those games as if he knew the connection was there and it just needed to start clicking in the game.

 

[robbomango]

Also BB felt comfortable enough to start the opener with Lloyd as our #2 without Branch and Gaff. I don't like it from a depth standpoint but the confidence it shows in Lloyd is encouraging IMO.

 

[Kontradiction]

I don't think you can do a Cover-1 against the Pats if Lloyd is a true deep threat. Teams did a lot of Cover-1 last year and needed that safety deep to pick up Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez after they broke the first tackle . If you do a Cover-1 and roll the safety to cover Lloyd, you risk a TD off a 5 yard pass on virtually every play considering all the Pats other main targets have shown repeatedly that they are adept of shedding tackles and gaining extra yards. They need a safety deep whose only job is to stop Gronk, Hernadez, or Welker from turning a short pass into a TD. That safety needs to be the last line of defense. You will rarely see a Cover-1 with the safety proving over the top help to Lloyd or Gronk, Lloyd, and/or Welker will have a lot of 30 plus yard TDs.

In your first sentence, you describe that defenses can't do a Cover-1 look against the Pats, then immediately contadict yourself in sentence two when you admit that defenses did that last year with no deep threat. Defenses will show us a variety of looks to be able to dedicate more coverage over the middle, and the Cover-1 shell will be one of them. They did it last year and they did it when Moss was here. As for breaking a five yard catch into a TD... that will happen no matter what alignment or look the defense is giving us. That's how good Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez are. But it still doesn't change the fact that defensive coordinators will be looking at cutting off the only deep threat we have first and foremost.

 

[Rob0729]

In your first sentence, you describe that defenses can't do a Cover-1 look against the Pats, then immediately contadict yourself in sentence two when you admit that defenses did that last year with no deep threat. Defenses will show us a variety of looks to be able to dedicate more coverage over the middle, and the Cover-1 shell will be one of them. They did it last year and they did it when Moss was here. As for breaking a five yard catch into a TD... that will happen no matter what alignment or look the defense is giving us. That's how good Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez are. But it still doesn't change the fact that defensive coordinators will be looking at cutting off the only deep threat we have first and foremost.

How did I contradict myself? Who was the deep threat last year? I said they did a lot of Cover-1 last year because the Pats had no legitimate deep threat and that they can't do it this year all that often if the Pats have a deep threat in Lloyd. There is no contradiction.

As for how they did it when Moss was here, that is irrelevant. Moss was never really here with Gronk and Hernandez (other than 4 games). The dynamics have changed since then. The Pats are far more dangerous over the center of the field than they ever were when Moss was here.

As for a 5 yard pass turning into a TD, you are missing my point. Of course with the guys the Pats have it is always a problem. That is why teams last year always put a safety deep with no coverage responsibility other than to make sure if Gronk, Hernandez, or Welker breaks tackles that the safety prevents the TD. And that happened fairly often where they needed that safety as last line of the defense. With a deep threat, concede the TD on those instances if you use that safety in the Cover-1 for over the top help. That means that some of those 30 yard plays that Gronk and Hernadez had last year will be 70 yard TD passes if opposing defenses do what you suggest more than sparingly.

The Pats brought in Lloyd specifically to force the opposing defenses to go into a Cover 2 formation to open up the center of the field for Hernandez, Gronk, and Welker. It wasn't the only reason, but it was a big reason. With no deep threat, opposing defenses had no reason to do a Cover 2 very often because they didn't need over the top help that often.

 

[PatsFan2]

One think we will love about Lloyd is that he will be among the best hands WR. Lloyd is going to make alot what the hmmm mmm catches.

 

[PatsFan2]

Not if the defense is flooding the middle of the field and the flats in the zone. Any defense playing Lloyd would be suicidal to not dedicate a corner and a safety to him. You take your chances with the Gronks, Welkers, and Herandez's, as good as they are, and a slower death. If Lloyd can consistently get open vs. one on one coverage downfield, the Patriots are suddenly breaking off chunks of yardage and scoring at a quicker rate (thus shortening the field for those TE's and Welker). Any defensive coordinator would be right to dedicate two guys to Lloyd, cut off the downfield threat, and force the Pats to sustain longer drives so that their offense has a chance of keeping up on the other side of the ball.

EDIT: Pretty dumb and dorky example, but think about it in terms of "Return of the Jedi". Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez are the Star Destroyers, Lloyd is the Death Star. Going head on at the Star Destroyers, you won't last long. But you'll last longer than you will against that Death Star.

That great analysis was was tasty KontradictioN...might i have another.:eat3:

 

[Kontradiction]

How did I contradict myself? Who was the deep threat last year? I said they did a lot of Cover-1 last year because the Pats had no legitimate deep threat and that they can't do it this year all that often if the Pats have a deep threat in Lloyd. There is no contradiction. As for how they did it when Moss was here, that is irrelevant. Moss was never really here with Gronk and Hernandez (other than 4 games). The dynamics have changed since then. The Pats are far more dangerous over the center of the field than they ever were when Moss was here.

How is that irrelevant? The Cover-1 shell is specifically for teams that have a deep threat. The main way it can be exploited is by teams that have MULTIPLE deep threats, but the Pats do not. Listing what Hernandez, Gronk, and Welker can do after five yards is irrelevant to that fact. The Pats only have one deep threat, Lloyd. Teams can attack that by placing one safety deep in a Cover-1 look while doing a number of things with the other safety. DC's would be fools to dedicate single coverage to a guy that can break off literal chunks of yardage vs. to guys that can maybe take a five yard gain and rack up YAC after the catch. You focus on limiting chunks first then attacking the other guys and living with your results.

As for a 5 yard pass turning into a TD, you are missing my point. Of course with the guys the Pats have it is always a problem. That is why teams last year always put a safety deep with no coverage responsibility other than to make sure if Gronk, Hernandez, or Welker breaks tackles that the safety prevents the TD. And that happened fairly often where they needed that safety as last line of the defense. With a deep threat, concede the TD on those instances if you use that safety in the Cover-1 for over the top help. That means that some of those 30 yard plays that Gronk and Hernadez had last year will be 70 yard TD passes if opposing defenses do what you suggest more than sparingly.

Teams didn't always put a safety deep with us. If anything, it was the opposite. More often than not, good defenses cheated their safeties up to the LoS, sometimes even going into Cover 0 looks. We also saw Cover-1's and Cover-2's, but the safeties weren't nearly deep as much as they were close. The one time I can think of it happening in a game more than the instances that I mentioned was the Colts game. And I remember wondering whether or not the Colts were TRYING to lose the game because of that.

The Pats brought in Lloyd specifically to force the opposing defenses to go into a Cover 2 formation to open up the center of the field for Hernandez, Gronk, and Welker. It wasn't the only reason, but it was a big reason. With no deep threat, opposing defenses had no reason to do a Cover 2 very often because they didn't need over the top help that often.

The Pats brought Lloyd it to force opposing defenses to respect the deep threat and stop flooding the middle. They brought in guys like Gaffney and Stallworth with him to force the Cover-2. The Cover-2 is specifically the defensive set to stop a team with multiple deep threats. That's why half the board was scratching their heads when Gaffney was let go, because there are a lot of personnel packages where you could have put him out there with Lloyd, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez and almost completely cleared the middle of the field out. With just Lloyd, it's not necessary to go into a Cover-2. Gronk, Welker, and AHern can take any five yard catch deep, yes. But it wasn't something that happened every other play last year. With Lloyd, you want to stop the one guy that can break off a chunk of yardage. Lloyd should be able to do that in this offense, being an outside the numbers threat, more often than the other three can. Any DC that isn't insane will dedicate looks like the Cover-1 to Lloyd and worry about everyone else afterward.

 

[Kontradiction]

That great analysis was was tasty KontradictioN...might i have another.:eat3:

I'm limited to one good analysis per day. Everything else is garbled mumbo jumbo.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: A Concern..... or Not?

How is that irrelevant? The Cover-1 shell is specifically for teams that have a deep threat. The main way it can be exploited is by teams that have MULTIPLE deep threats, but the Pats do not. Listing what Hernandez, Gronk, and Welker can do after five yards is irrelevant to that fact. The Pats only have one deep threat, Lloyd. Teams can attack that by placing one safety deep in a Cover-1 look while doing a number of things with the other safety. DC's would be fools to dedicate single coverage to a guy that can break off literal chunks of yardage vs. to guys that can maybe take a five yard gain and rack up YAC after the catch. You focus on limiting chunks first then attacking the other guys and living with your results.

2007 is irrelevant because this a different team with different strengths and focuses.

Also, I never ever said that teams were going to leave Lloyd alone on the island. I just don't think they are going to cover him with a Cover-1.

Teams didn't always put a safety deep with us. If anything, it was the opposite. More often than not, good defenses cheated their safeties up to the LoS, sometimes even going into Cover 0 looks. We also saw Cover-1's and Cover-2's, but the safeties weren't nearly deep as much as they were close. The one time I can think of it happening in a game more than the instances that I mentioned was the Colts game. And I remember wondering whether or not the Colts were TRYING to lose the game because of that.

I agree with you that the Pats did see a lot of shallower Cover 1 or Cover 2 that because Gronk and Hernandez had deep threat potential, but on the ground. Their yards after the catch makes them deep threats, but not in the traditional way. But that doesn't change my overall point that teams put safeties in over the top positions to stop Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk from taking a short pass to the house.

The Pats brought Lloyd it to force opposing defenses to respect the deep threat and stop flooding the middle. They brought in guys like Gaffney and Stallworth with him to force the Cover-2. The Cover-2 is specifically the defensive set to stop a team with multiple deep threats. That's why half the board was scratching their heads when Gaffney was let go, because there are a lot of personnel packages where you could have put him out there with Lloyd, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez and almost completely cleared the middle of the field out. With just Lloyd, it's not necessary to go into a Cover-2. Gronk, Welker, and AHern can take any five yard catch deep, yes. But it wasn't something that happened every other play last year. With Lloyd, you want to stop the one guy that can break off a chunk of yardage. Lloyd should be able to do that in this offense, being an outside the numbers threat, more often than the other three can. Any DC that isn't insane will dedicate looks like the Cover-1 to Lloyd and worry about everyone else afterward.

First, Cover-2 is TRADITIONALLY for teams with multiple deep threats which maybe Stallworth, but not Gaffney would have added. The Pats are not a traditional offense and which forces teams to used tranditional defenses in other ways. As I said, both Gronk and Hernandez are actually deep threats with after the catch plays because they are impossible to bring down. Which requires over the top help. Either guy can easily pick up 30-50 yards on individual plays in a game which has required over the top help.

Personally, I don't know what will work if Lloyd becomes a legitimate deep threat. I think a Cover-1 will allow Gronk and Hernandez to get a lot of long TDs that would have been 30-40 yard plays last year. I think a Cover-2 will allow them and Welker to eat up the center of the field, but not get as many homeruns. I think teams will have to get more creative vs. the Pats if Lloyd becomes what we think or hope he can be.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

No concern....he's the deep threat when we need it as well as catching everything that is thrown his way..may take a few weeks but by 4th week there should be no issues