Tom Brady: The Game Following a Bad Performance

[Ochmed Jones]

This thread is a great research pice. Thanks for sharing it with us.

In my mind, this SB is all about the play of Brady and our O Line. Anything we get from the defense and ST is gravy.

 

[Ric_Flair]

One has to wonder how his injured non-throwing shoulder affects his performance.

It has been reported that he requested his QB trainer to help him out and analyze his throwing mechanics.

This has nothing to do with his non-throwing shoulder. What you're speaking about pertained to his throwing arm elbow from earlier in the season.

His non-throwing shoulder will NOT affect his arm slot.

 

[strngplyr]

This is BB and Brady playing with the minds of the Giants.

Yup, we knew we'd be facing the Giants. We also "played with their minds" by allowing Joe Flacco to complete a pass to Lee Evans, with Sterling Moore faking being beat, of course, only to plan on knocking it out of his hands for the drama.

We did all of this elaborate planning because we knew that the ref would grab the football with the counterweight inserted to ensure it would fly wide left.

We did all this with a trip to the SB on the line.

Yup.

Enough with the troll conspiracy theories.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Disagree... The Ravens are just as good as the Giants in my opinion.

Yeah, where is coming that the Giants are so much better than the Ravens?

Also, what's up with this week 9, Giants stunk theory?

That win had them at 6-2. They went down after that game and pulled it out in the end.

The reality is the Ravens/ Giants needed a +2 in turnovers to produce a last second game result. That makes them about equal.

 

[neuronet]

My bet: p value >>> .05 for the hypothesis that the two distributions of performance are the same after a bad performance versus overall. Run a Kolmogovor Smirnov test or something.

 

[seven]

ivanvamp how do you come up with/generate these numbers?
It would take me days to come up with this data.
Thanks.

 

[PatsDeb]

I'm not analyzing anymore or responding to any threads about last week or negative Nancys about the upcoming game. We are in the Superbowl! I am excited for the game and I am hoping that Brady plays lights out. I hate the Giants and I hope he goes to town on them. He is a great QB and he deserves another ring and I hope he gets it. He'll either play great or he won't. Can't wait for the game to get here!

 

[Dessalines]

This thread is a great research pice. Thanks for sharing it with us.

In my mind, this SB is all about the play of Brady and our O Line. Anything we get from the defense and ST is gravy.

Yeah, agree with this and in addition, the PATS need to get something from the running game.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Say WHAT?

The bomb to Slater was a terrible risk to take. You have the ball at mid-field, mid 4th Q, the other team has no quick strike offense, so you methodically take the ball down the field instead of madly bombing into double coverage at a guy with one catch on the year.

Horrible risk to take, one of the worst play calls ever, and you are the first person I know of that things it was the right play call.

I'd suggest saving yourself the keystrokes. Some think that because the net of the two ints increased the Pats win probability it wasn't a bad play. I think the probability went something like 52%->83%->63%.

 

[ivanvamp]

ivanvamp how do you come up with/generate these numbers?
It would take me days to come up with this data.
Thanks.

espn.com's football stats, looking at game box scores, looking here (NFL Football on TeamRankings.com), etc. It is some work but it's fun for me anyway. Hope you guys are finding it interesting.

 

[Fencer]

I would like to see what Brady's performance is coming off a bad performance followed by a week off to prepare for the next game?

Surely there aren't a lot of data points.

 

[seven]

espn.com's football stats, looking at game box scores, looking here (NFL Football on TeamRankings.com), etc. It is some work but it's fun for me anyway. Hope you guys are finding it interesting.

I was hoping you had an easy way, an addressable database or something.
Thanks for the hard work. You come up with good stuff.

 

[Gronkandez]

He, like most QB's I would assume, also plays much better indoors.

Indoors Outdoors
QB Rating 103.1 95.18
Yards/Att 8.4 7.4


Tom Brady - New England Patriots - Split Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

 

[patsfan13]

Brady has only had two "terrible" games which were followed by a bye week before his next game. Here they were:

2001 - week 16, he went 17-29 (58.6%), 198 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 62.1 rating against the Panthers. They earned a bye for the playoffs as the #2 seed, then hosted the Raiders in the Snow Bowl game. For that game, Brady had this line: 32-52 (61.5%), 312 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 70.4 rating.

2002 - week 6, he put up this line in a 28-10 loss to the Packers: 24-44 (54.5%), 183 yds, 1 td, 3 int, 44.0 rating. They had a bye for week 7, then they lost to Denver in week 8, 24-16, with Brady putting up this line: 15-29 (51.7%), 130 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 75.4 rating.

In 2007 he had a "bad" game in the AFCCG against SD in a 21-12 win: 22-33 (66.7%), 209 yds, 2 td, 3 int, 66.4 rating. They had the bye then played the Giants in the SB, where Brady put up this line: 29-48 (60.4%), 266 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 82.5 rating.

Here are all of Brady's stat lines the week after a bye. I'll designate which games followed anything less than a "good" performance, according to my rubric (marked with an *):

2001 - Divisional Round - 32-52 (61.5%), 312 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 70.4 rating - beat Oak 16-13*

2001 - Super Bowl - 16-27 (59.3%), 145 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 86.2 rating - beat StL 20-17

2002 - Week 8 - 15-29 (51.7%), 130 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 75.4 rating - lost to Den 24-16*

2003 - Week 10 - 15-34 (44.1%), 212 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 64.8 rating - beat Dal 12-0

2003 - Divisional Round - 21-41 (51.2%), 201 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 73.3 rating - beat Ten 17-14

2003 - Super Bowl - 32-48 (66.7%), 354 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 100.5 rating - beat Car 32-29*

2004 - Week 3 - 17-30 (56.7%), 298 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 112.9 rating - beat Buf 31-17*

2004 - Super Bowl - 23-33 (69.7%), 236 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 110.2 rating - beat Phi 24-21

2005 - Week 7 - 14-21 (66.7%), 199 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 113.0 rating - beat Buf 21-16*

2006 - Week 6 - 18-27 (66.7%), 195 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 112.4 rating - beat Buf 28-6

2007 - Week 10 - 31-39 (79.5%), 373 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 146.1 rating - beat Buf 56-10

2007 - Divisional Round - 26-28 (92.9%), 262 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 141.4 rating - beat Jax 31-20

2007 - Super Bowl - 29-48 (60.4%), 266 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 82.5 rating - lost to NYG 17-14*

2008 - N/A

2009 - Week 8 - 25-37 (67.6%), 332 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 93.5 rating - beat Mia 27-17

2010 - Week 5 - 27-44 (61.4%), 292 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 69.5 rating - beat Bal 23-20

2010 - Divisional Round - 29-45 (64.4%), 299 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 89.0 rating - lost to NYJ 28-21

2011 - Week 7 - 24-35 (68.6%), 198 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 101.8 rating - lost to Pit 25-17

2011 - Divisional Round - 26-34 (76.5%), 363 yds, 6 td, 1 int, 137.6 rating - beat Den 45-10

That's 18 games following a bye. Of these 18, here's where they would fit in my rubric:

excellent: 3 (16.7%)
very good: 6 (33.3%)
good: 3 (16.7%)
average: 2 (11.1%)
poor: 3 (16.7%)
terrible: 1 (5.6%)

So 12 of the 18 (66.7%) were "good" or better.

Of these 18, just 6 of them followed a performance that was "average" or worse. Here were the QB ratings in those 6 instances: 70.4, 75.4, 100.5, 112.9, 113.0, and 82.5.

So again, a bit of a mixed bag. He's never been hideous in that situation, but he's never been insanely brilliant either. He's either been below average or very good. 50-50 proposition, really.

Wish I had better news to share!

The numbers are skewed down a bit by the data during the 2001-2003 results if you just considered the period from 2004 to the present the data would be very different.

 

[ivanvamp]

The numbers are skewed down a bit by the data during the 2001-2003 results if you just considered the period from 2004 to the present the data would be very different.

No question about it.

 

[ivanvamp]

He, like most QB's I would assume, also plays much better indoors.

Indoors Outdoors
QB Rating 103.1 95.18
Yards/Att 8.4 7.4


Tom Brady - New England Patriots - Split Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

Unfortunately, Eli also is much better indoors over his career:

Outdoors: 57.6%, 80.9 rating, 7.0 ypa
Indoors: 64.9%, 91.6 rating, 7.3 ypa

 

[Boston Boxer]

I would like to see what Brady's performance is coming off a bad performance followed by a week off to prepare for the next game?

A HOF QB given some extra time to prepare has to be a decent improvement 2 weeks later.

...and, when was the last time he (and BB) lost to a team that had beat them the same year? I cant remember the last time we were wept by an opponent. I am not stating fact, i truely just cant remember

 

[ivanvamp]

...and, when was the last time he (and BB) lost to a team that had beat them the same year? I cant remember the last time we were wept by an opponent. I am not stating fact, i truely just cant remember

Last year they lost to the Jets once during the regular season and again in the playoffs. In 2006 they were swept by the Colts (once in the regular season and then again in the AFCCG).

But no, it doesn't happen very often.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Agreed. While the Giants O may be better, you can make a strong case their D is not as good as the Ravens.

I would argue not just a strong case can be made, an airtight case can be made that the Raven D is better than the Giants D. Of course the flip side is also airtight too. The Giant O is better than the Raven O.

 

[redsx8827]

Has anyone else thought of Brady's legacy being cemented by this game?

if he loses and goes 3-2 in SB's, losing to the same QB twice, he will go down as a top 5 QB. But Eli will 'have his number', which will taint his legacy relevant to a top 5 player of all time. IF he wins this game, gets redemption for the 2007 loss, goes 4-1 in SB's, then he will have the best resume of all time. He will have tied Montana for SB wins, but will have the 2 MVPs, the 50tds, the 36td-4int season. This year with the 2nd worst yardage defense of all time, meaning he will be largely remembered (rightfully so) as the reason this team won it all.

I can't think of a game that will define someone's career more so than this game for Brady. Does anyone agree that this is the difference between arguable being ranked anywhere from 1st to 5th all time to hands-down the best player of all time when looking at it from an objective viewpoint (most SBs all time, most playoff wins, all the numbers)?

Legendary people step up to the moment and i fully expect brady to do just that. If he doesn't play well, then he would have had 6 below par performances in his last 8 playoff games (nyg 2x, nyj, balt 2x, sd 07), which drops him to Peyton's level as of late IMO. Definitely would be frustrating as a fan seeing the regular season dominance but nothing to show for it...(wow do I have high expectations haha)