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I figured I'd take a look at the tiebreakers given that no one has clinched a playoff spot in the AFC.
First, I'm not going to discuss the teams with less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs (Texans, Jaguars, or JEST). That said, it turns out to be a lot simpler than I thought.
Let's start with the divisional teams:
Finally there are the teams they haven't played:
Fortunately for NE, the Patriots currently own the conference record tiebreaker, as they have a 7–1 conference record, and no other team has a record better than 6–3. So:
First, I'm not going to discuss the teams with less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs (Texans, Jaguars, or JEST). That said, it turns out to be a lot simpler than I thought.
Let's start with the divisional teams:
- Bills: Patriots, on head-to-head [H2H], though the Bills will own this one on divisional record if they beat NE and the JEST.
- Dolphins: Dolphins, on H2H. The Patriots will own this one on divisional record if they beat Miami.
- Colts: TBD.
- Titans: Patriots, on H2H
- Chargers: Patriots, on H2H
- Browns: Patriots, on H2H
Finally there are the teams they haven't played:
- Bengals
- Broncos
- Chiefs
- Raiders
- Ravens
- Steelers
Fortunately for NE, the Patriots currently own the conference record tiebreaker, as they have a 7–1 conference record, and no other team has a record better than 6–3. So:
- Win all 4 games and they clinch the #1 seed.
- Win any 3 games and they clinch conference record over all of these teams.
- Win any 2 games and they clinch conference record over the Broncos, Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. The Bengals and Raiders can tie if they win out, but I believe the Patriots would still hold the common games tiebreaker over them.