Tiebreaker status at the bye

[ctpatsfan77]

I figured I'd take a look at the tiebreakers given that no one has clinched a playoff spot in the AFC.

First, I'm not going to discuss the teams with less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs (Texans, Jaguars, or JEST). That said, it turns out to be a lot simpler than I thought.

Let's start with the divisional teams:

• Bills: Patriots, on head-to-head [H2H], though the Bills will own this one on divisional record if they beat NE and the JEST.
• Dolphins: Dolphins, on H2H. The Patriots will own this one on divisional record if they beat Miami.

Now let's look at the AFC South:

• Colts: TBD.
• Titans: Patriots, on H2H

And the other teams they've played:

• Chargers: Patriots, on H2H
• Browns: Patriots, on H2H

Finally there are the teams they haven't played:

• Bengals
• Broncos
• Chiefs
• Raiders
• Ravens
• Steelers

The first two tiebreakers, besides head-to-head, are conference record and common games.

Fortunately for NE, the Patriots currently own the conference record tiebreaker, as they have a 7–1 conference record, and no other team has a record better than 6–3. So:

• Win all 4 games and they clinch the #1 seed.
• Win any 3 games and they clinch conference record over all of these teams.
• Win any 2 games and they clinch conference record over the Broncos, Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. The Bengals and Raiders can tie if they win out, but I believe the Patriots would still hold the common games tiebreaker over them.

 

[Gumby]

Amazing all losses in away games and 2/3 to nfc foes, hmmmmmm……




Just wondering…..

is the SB in an nfc or afc stadium this year?

 

[festy1986]

Just wondering…..

is the SB in an nfc or afc stadium this year?

Both.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Amazing all losses in away games and 2/3 to nfc foes, hmmmmmm……




Just wondering…..

is the SB in an nfc or afc stadium this year?

Both (SoFi, home to the Chargers and Rams).

But the AFC team is the designated home team.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I figured I'd take a look at the tiebreakers given that no one has clinched a playoff spot in the AFC.

First, I'm not going to discuss the teams with less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs (Texans, Jaguars, or JEST). That said, it turns out to be a lot simpler than I thought.

Let's start with the divisional teams:

• Bills: Patriots, on head-to-head [H2H], though the Bills will own this one on divisional record if they beat NE and the JEST.
• Dolphins: Dolphins, on H2H. The Patriots will own this one on divisional record if they beat Miami.

Now let's look at the AFC South:

• Colts: TBD.
• Titans: Patriots, on H2H

And the other teams they've played:

• Chargers: Patriots, on H2H
• Browns: Patriots, on H2H

Finally there are the teams they haven't played:

• Bengals
• Broncos
• Chiefs
• Raiders
• Ravens
• Steelers

The first two tiebreakers, besides head-to-head, are conference record and common games.

Fortunately for NE, the Patriots currently own the conference record tiebreaker, as they have a 7–1 conference record, and no other team has a record better than 6–3. So:

• Win all 4 games and they clinch the #1 seed.
• Win any 3 games and they clinch conference record over all of these teams.
• Win any 2 games and they clinch conference record over the Broncos, Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. The Bengals and Raiders can tie if they win out, but I believe the Patriots would still hold the common games tiebreaker over them.

Very helpful

 

[slam]

This is a useful site:

AFC Playoff Picture

The AFC Playoff Picture table presents the probabilities that a team will win each NFL playoff spot.

www.playoffstatus.com

Current calculations of playoff odds for all teams. The Pats reached 99% chance of reaching the playoffs last night. I think it was around 70% before that. Pats 48% of #1 seed.

It has the Bills around 19% of winning the division, Pats around 81%

 

[sb1]

I figured I'd take a look at the tiebreakers given that no one has clinched a playoff spot in the AFC.

First, I'm not going to discuss the teams with less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs (Texans, Jaguars, or JEST). That said, it turns out to be a lot simpler than I thought.

Let's start with the divisional teams:

• Bills: Patriots, on head-to-head [H2H], though the Bills will own this one on divisional record if they beat NE and the JEST.
• Dolphins: Dolphins, on H2H. The Patriots will own this one on divisional record if they beat Miami.

Now let's look at the AFC South:

• Colts: TBD.
• Titans: Patriots, on H2H

And the other teams they've played:

• Chargers: Patriots, on H2H
• Browns: Patriots, on H2H

Finally there are the teams they haven't played:

• Bengals
• Broncos
• Chiefs
• Raiders
• Ravens
• Steelers

The first two tiebreakers, besides head-to-head, are conference record and common games.

Fortunately for NE, the Patriots currently own the conference record tiebreaker, as they have a 7–1 conference record, and no other team has a record better than 6–3. So:

• Win all 4 games and they clinch the #1 seed.
• Win any 3 games and they clinch conference record over all of these teams.
• Win any 2 games and they clinch conference record over the Broncos, Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. The Bengals and Raiders can tie if they win out, but I believe the Patriots would still hold the common games tiebreaker over them.

Common games tiebreaker with the Bills if needed should also be in our favor. Especially after a likely Bucs win this weekend.

 

[pazrul72]

Common games tiebreaker with the Bills if needed should also be in our favor. Especially after a likely Bucs win this weekend.

With the bills that doesnt matter as the first tie breaker with a division rival is division record and assuming they take both the jets game and the foxboro rematch they would be 5-1 pats would be 4-2.

 

[Sicilian]

Common games tiebreaker with the Bills if needed should also be in our favor. Especially after a likely Bucs win this weekend.

That's good, but I doubt it would ever get to that point, unless somehow the Jets beat the Bills. Otherwise either the Patriots have the head to head sweep, or the Bills beat us and they have the division record tie breaker.