Thoughts on Kiper's "Grade A" Patriots Draft for New England

[Deus Irae]

No, it isn't impossible for a draftee to produce. However, we've needed receivers for over 10 years and haven't drafted one yet that has succeeded as rookie (or even after that).

Of course, Belichick has used draft choice to secure Welker and Moss, and tried to secure Sanders. But these examples simply underline the lack of success of the patriots in drafting wide receivers.

Perhaps this will be Edelman's breakout year as a wideout. Perhaps Belichick will strike it rich with 2 WR contributors (as he did at TE and RB). Or NOT.

The media is still speculating on what WR the patriots might be able to trade for. Obviously, many draft a WR in their mocks. Others bow to reality and expect us to draft a corner.

I'd be more worried about your post if the Patriots had actually put a lot of draft resources into those WRs.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

That is NOT true for WR. As has been noted all week in the media analyses, the patriot offense is extremely complex and getting Brady's confidence is difficult. A WR (other than a top 10 receiver) is extremely unlikely to have a major 2013 impact.

Its almost impossible to draft a WR that will make a significant impact in his first year, especially in this offense. That doesn't mean you just ignore the position, because if you take a look at the 2014 FA/RFA Wide Receivers, there are SLIM pickings. WR is a problem and we need to address it, because its going to remain a problem next year since there are only a handful of WRs that would be worth going after (Emannuel Sanders, Anquan Boldin, Jacoby Jones, James Jones, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Mario Manningham, Brand Lafell). A few of those guys are just too old to sign to a big FA contract, so we need to address WR in this draft, even if its a redshirt year because there isn't going to be much help next year and we'll be stuck needing to draft a WR who will then possibly have to be a red shirt..

Get it out of the way, get a WR now so at least Brady can develop some chemistry with him before he retires.

 

[mgteich]

There is no reason to worry about my post. Well, we are zero for three in the three top WR draftees over the past 10 years ( 2 three's and a two).

Are you suggesting that using an occasional 2 or 3 isn't enough to judge?

In any case, I agree that we should draft TWO wide receivers in the first 3 rounds, presuming that we don't sign or trade for one. AND we should allow Josh to make those choices. After all, he will have to live with the results.

I'd be more worried about your post if the Patriots had actually put a lot of draft resources into those WRs.

 

[Deus Irae]

There is no reason to worry about my post. Well, we are zero for three in the three top WR draftees over the past 10 years ( 2 three's and a two).

Are you suggesting that using an occasional 2 or 3 isn't enough to judge?

I'm suggesting that a flier on an injured 3rd round WR, a 2nd round WR who was taken over the wishes of the scouts and assistants, and a 3rd round guy from a small school over the course of ten years is not enough of a sample, yes. I'm also pointing out that deliberately using a cutoff date which eliminates the successful Branch selection is obviously going to color the results.

In any case, I agree that we should draft TWO wide receivers in the first 3 rounds, presuming that we don't sign or trade for one. AND we should allow Josh to make those choices. After all, he will have to live with the results.

How is the team supposed to make these picks with acceptable likelihoods of success if the team is also drafting CBs or DEs with that first round pick? It seems as if people are asking for 3 low picks to do the work of 5 top of the round selections.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think that we disagree that much. We both see the need for two top receivers.
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1) It is not at all clear that there is a huge amount of difference between the WR we get at 29 with the one we might get at 61. 61 is NOT a low quality pick for wide receivers in this draft. I think that we would draft Austin, Patterson or Allen if they were there at 29. The rest seem to be 2nd rounders.

2) I agree that we should draft 2 wide receivers in the top 75 or so picks.

3) I expect us to try to trade out of the first.

How is the team supposed to make these picks with acceptable likelihoods of success if the team is also drafting CBs or DEs with that first round pick? It seems as if people are asking for 3 low picks to do the work of 5 top of the round selections.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't think that we disagree that much. We both see the need for two top receivers.
===========================

1) It is not at all clear that there is a huge amount of difference between the WR we get at 29 with the one we might get at 61. 61 is NOT a low quality pick for wide receivers in this draft. I think that we would draft Austin, Patterson or Allen if they were there at 29. The rest seem to be 2nd rounders.

2) I agree that we should draft 2 wide receivers in the top 75 or so picks.

3) I expect us to try to trade out of the first.

The bolded part is where we disagree. You're willing to have the Patriots wait on the scraps, while I'm not content to do so.


That still doesn't resolve the CB disagreement in the first two rounds, either, unless you think the Patriots are getting a pair of 2013 seconds for trading down a handful of picks from #29.

 

[mgteich]

1) What receivers do you think are worth taking in the top 61 picks?

2) Are you satisfied with the safeties that will be available in the 3rd? Others would have to be satisfied with the corners that we might get in the 3rd.

3) For me, a 3rd round corner or safety would be a bencher for this year; but, perhaps, that's OK.

4) I trust that you're OK with a strategy that has us picking a WR first, with Belichick deciding whether it is at 29 or a bit later. Belichick would have the same decision with regard to WR2, picking at 61 or a bit lower.

BOTTOM LINE

A) Belichick has PURPOSELY chosen to go with Amendola, Jones, Jenkins and Edelman. He was not forced to do so. He still isn't forced to do so (he could re-sign Lloyd). Belichick likely does NOT believe that the offense has suffered a major setback or has a major weakness at WR.

B) On the other hand, Belichick has knowingly chosen to patch the secondary by signing one-year patches Talib, Wilson and Cole. Having a long-term plan of Dennard, Dowling and Arrington doesn't seem sufficient to me. Neither does a future of McCourty and T. Wilson, although Belichick may be willing to take a wait and see attitude at safety with vets A. Wilson and Gregory able to play opposite McCourty if Wilson isn't up to the task.

C) A strong argument can be made that Belichick is planning to focus more on the defense in the draft than WR. Folks have been arguing for an additional pass-rusher plus secondary help for months.

I'm suggesting that a flier on an injured 3rd round WR, a 2nd round WR who was taken over the wishes of the scouts and assistants, and a 3rd round guy from a small school over the course of ten years is not enough of a sample, yes. I'm also pointing out that deliberately using a cutoff date which eliminates the successful Branch selection is obviously going to color the results.



How is the team supposed to make these picks with acceptable likelihoods of success if the team is also drafting CBs or DEs with that first round pick? It seems as if people are asking for 3 low picks to do the work of 5 top of the round selections.

 

[Deus Irae]

1) What receivers do you think are worth taking in the top 61 picks?

It's not about the number they are taken on the board, because the team's allowed WR to become a position of need. It's the number of WRs taken before them, and who they are. Just for example, if you're enamored with the Austin, you've got to trade up in round one, because he's likely to go as the first WR off the board. I'm not there, but I'm seeing a handful (+/-) after him and Patterson that would seem to best fit the team needs, and they'll likely be among the earliest WRs taken.

2) Are you satisfied with the safeties that will be available in the 3rd? Others would have to be satisfied with the corners that we might get in the 3rd.

They drafted a 3rd-4th round safety last year, in Tavon Wilson, and he couldn't get off the bench much of the time. It was time to spend serious draft capital to finish off the starting 5 of the secondary.

3) For me, a 3rd round corner or safety would be a bencher for this year; but, perhaps, that's OK.

If Matthieu is what he was in college, and the time off hasn't set him way back, he should be ready to function as a dime, or even a nickel, this season.

4) I trust that you're OK with a strategy that has us picking a WR first, with Belichick deciding whether it is at 29 or a bit later. Belichick would have the same decision with regard to WR2, picking at 61 or a bit lower.

I don't want the team waiting until 61 for the second WR.

BOTTOM LINE

A) Belichick has PURPOSELY chosen to go with Amendola, Jones, Jenkins and Edelman. He was not forced to do so. He still isn't forced to do so (he could re-sign Lloyd). Belichick likely does NOT believe that the offense has suffered a major setback or has a major weakness at WR.

The first three sentences are certainly true. The last two are guesses on your part, and the last one is a guess that I don't think he's fool enough to actually believe. He's a very smart football man, so I assume that, looking back with the smoke cleared, he realizes his screw up with Welker.

B) On the other hand, Belichick has knowingly chosen to patch the secondary by signing one-year patches Talib, Wilson and Cole. Having a long-term plan of Dennard, Dowling and Arrington doesn't seem sufficient to me. Neither does a future of McCourty and T. Wilson, although Belichick may be willing to take a wait and see attitude at safety with vets A. Wilson and Gregory able to play opposite McCourty if Wilson isn't up to the task.

I expect Gregory will be gone after this season. There's a fair amount of dead money on him for this year, but it's cut in half next year. It's another reason I thought going safety early was the way to go.

However, I also think that the Patriots expect 2014 to be "Walmart, part 2", so I wouldn't be surprised if they're thinking they'll have a very legit shot at Talib again next year.

C) A strong argument can be made that Belichick is planning to focus more on the defense in the draft than WR. Folks have been arguing for an additional pass-rusher plus secondary help for months.

I remember many of those same folks talking about how good Chung was going to be and how Gregory was a starting caliber safety. Focusing on defense would be a mistake, IMO, unless a demigod of a pass rusher slips down, and there aren't any of those thought to be in this draft.

 

[EwanSellars]

perfect patriots draft would more likely be

1. carradine
2. Wheaton
3. Mcfadden/greene (doubt we get greene here)

imo

 

[mgteich]

My preference would be to trade out of the 1st for a mid-second and a mid-third and then trade our two 3rds for a second. THEN, draft three good men in the 2nd at WR, DB and WR in whatever order.

The bolded part is where we disagree. You're willing to have the Patriots wait on the scraps, while I'm not content to do so.


That still doesn't resolve the CB disagreement in the first two rounds, either, unless you think the Patriots are getting a pair of 2013 seconds for trading down a handful of picks from #29.

 

[mgteich]

Perhaps you are correct. I certainly hope so. However, if this were so, wouldn't we have an additional WR free agent or two in house by now (Lloyd anyone)? There was plenty of time to act to make minor signings after the Welker debacle. Belichick chose to go with Jones, Jenkins and Edelman. Surely Belichick would have done more if he agreed that the situation at WR was a train wreck.

The first three sentences are certainly true. The last two are guesses on your part, and the last one is a guess that I don't think he's fool enough to actually believe. He's a very smart football man, so I assume that, looking back with the smoke cleared, he realizes his screw up with Welker.

 

[Deus Irae]

My preference would be to trade out of the 1st for a mid-second and a mid-third and then trade our two 3rds for a second. THEN, draft three good men in the 2nd at WR, DB and WR in whatever order.

If they can get the Eagles to overpay for a trade up to 29, because they want a QB, I'm all for it. Going below that exposes the top WRs to the Lions, Bengals, Cardinals, Jets, Titans and Bills just in the next 6 picks, and that's a lot of teams that could use WRs, if they haven't already taken one in round one. That's what I want to avoid.

 

[Deus Irae]

Perhaps you are correct. I certainly hope so. However, if this were so, wouldn't we have an additional WR free agent or two in house by now (Lloyd anyone)? There was plenty of time to act to make minor signings after the Welker debacle. Belichick chose to go with Jones, Jenkins and Edelman. Surely Belichick would have done more if he agreed that the situation at WR was a train wreck.

I think, at this point, there's nothing really out there beyond Lloyd, so there's no need to hurry at this point.

WalterFootball.com: 2013 NFL Free Agents - Wide Receivers

Post-draft cuts will probably free up some mid-level (WR3) types.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Belichick chose to go with Jones, Jenkins and Edelman. Surely Belichick would have done more if he agreed that the situation at WR was a train wreck.

It's also possible that the Patriots went after other players who decided to go elsewhere.

About the only thing we can say with absolute certainty is that every decision he makes is what he believes is in the best interest of the team. Obviously some of them are not (e.g., the complete mess he made of the TE position in 2009), though, of course many of them are (e.g., not cutting Cassel as many on this board were pleading for in 2008).

 

[manxman2601]

perfect patriots draft would more likely be

1. carradine
2. Wheaton
3. Mcfadden/greene (doubt we get greene here)

imo

 

[manxman2601]

Re: the discussion about rookie WRs and whether we can expect much production, I offer this stat:

Stat of the night: 171 receivers taken in the first 2 rounds since 1991. Only 31 had 50+ catches as rookies.

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/326548819426832386


and...

Since 1991, NFL teams have used 83 first-round draft picks on receivers. Only 21 of them (25.3%) caught at least 50 passes as rookies. Another 27 of those receivers (32.5%) finished their rookie seasons with even 32 catches -- two a game, which isn't exactly impactful.

The numbers are even lower in the second round, where 88 receivers have been taken since '91. Only 10 of those receivers (11.4%) caught at least 50 passes as rookies and 21 more (23.9%) caught at least 32.

Pelissero: Finding an impact rookie at receiver is a coin flip at best - Minnesota Vikings news | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Vikings


So it's not likely. Having said that, I've never been an advocate of taking WRs because of their immediate help, I've been high on this crop of WRs because the depth of th class is so good and because our roster can carry them, this is a great opportunity to re-boot the WR position on this team.

 

[Salva135]

If the Pats go into the season without anyone who can actually threaten the defense beyond 20 yards, we are yet again putting tremendous pressure on Tom Brady to be absolutely perfect in order to move the ball. I mean, jfc, Brady needs somewhere to look downfield when all of his underneath options are covered.

Where is he going? Jenkins or Jones are running down the sidelines?

Peyton is only entering his second year on a team with a gigantic contract and he has an incredible arsenal of weapons ready for him. If Gronk or Hernandez miss any time during the season our HoFer is throwing to absolute ****.

 

[Salva135]

I love this satisfaction that the Patriots offense is so complex, and Brady is so picky, that it requires a select few who can succeed in it. Congrats, the Pats have created an NFL offense so complex and picky that no WR can succeed. It's complete bull**** and an excuse for the Pats failing with a few bad WR picks. Remember when Brady's favorite WR was the open one? Now it takes a special, special, super special kismet connection with Tom to be a good receiver in the NFL, otherwise, you are not Brady material.

 

[tonyto3690]

If the Pats go into the season without anyone who can actually threaten the defense beyond 20 yards, we are yet again putting tremendous pressure on Tom Brady to be absolutely perfect in order to move the ball. I mean, jfc, Brady needs somewhere to look downfield when all of his underneath options are covered.

Where is he going? Jenkins or Jones are running down the sidelines?

Peyton is only entering his second year on a team with a gigantic contract and he has an incredible arsenal of weapons ready for him. If Gronk or Hernandez miss any time during the season our HoFer is throwing to absolute ****.

You are drastically underselling Edelman and Amendola. Edelman looked very good last year even with injuries and being the #5 receiving option. Amendola had Bradford throwing to him and will likely put up numbers somewhere around where Lloyd did.

We can only put so many guys on the field and you can't expect Gronk to break his arm on a freak PAT. Hernandez is a bit more concerning but he still played most of the season.

Ridley-Gronk-Hernandez-Edelman-Amendola. That's a pretty damn good quintet of skill position players. Top 10 RB, GOAT bound TE, top 5 TE and two quality #2 WRs is all you need. Sure one or even two will go down but we stillh ave enough fire power to win if our defense can consistently get stops.

Only some message board fans think that the patriots don't need a corner in the first or early second round.

As was the case when we drafted Solder, a CB may be given a year before he is expected to have a major role or start.

The draft is about the future. Talib is no guarantee for 2014. One of the worst secondaries in the NFL needs help. All but ostriches understand this.

The only excuse for not drafting a corner in the first couple of rounds would be if Belichick is planning to move McCourty back to corner. In that case, we would likely draft a safety among the top 3 picks.

Very well said.

An on top of that, Talib is no guarantee for 2013. In fact I think it's much more likely he misses 3+ games than he plays the entire season.

The last thing I want is to see Talib's legs explode under neath him under no contact and have Marquice Cole starting for us in the playoffs. Draft for long term need and fill a crucial insurance policy.

And even beyond that, it's no guarantee Dennard will be any good this season. His athleticism is not very good and teams will have tape on him finally and target his weaknesses.


Would be perfectly okay with the first two picks. However I still hold on to hope Carradine will drop to the second round pick where we can grab him. A lot of GMs are looking for instant impact to save their job and Carradine is no guarantee.

Realistically though, we trade out of the first, draft a DL in the second, a CB in the third, OL depth in the fourth and some projects in the late rounds at TE, CB/S, DT and LB

 

[PatsFan2]

I am not against a CB in the First it's in the Second Round and on the Patriots suck at drafting CB's. Is anybody here banking on Talib playing 16 games? As much as I like him I am not...A. Dennard should be a Stud in year 2. Having a Player in the wings not named Ras-I Dowling should make one feel at ease. Our Dept after Talib and Dennard is piss poor...unless you all want to see the Worst CB in the NFL Starting Kyle Arrington.