Simpelton
In the Starting Line-Up
- Joined
- Feb 12, 2017
- Messages
- 3,868
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I doubt it... in an average year I 100% agree, if Brady was 35 it'd be a no brainer, but I really do think the Patriots are mulling over the idea of succession and may decide that it's an area they can't trust to chaos.
If I'm right the decision process goes something like this:
Given: Brady has to go sometime, and a replacement has to be ready sometime.
Given: One possible replacement option is Jimmy G.
Question: How does Jimmy G compare to an average quarterback?
Answer: Jimmy G is significantly superior to an average replacement quarterback available on the market
Question: How long can we play Tom Brady while retaining the services if Jimmy Garoppolo in reserve?
Answer: Without doing something ridiculous like paying 2 quarterbacks starting money, 2 years maximum
Question: What happens to our ability to replace Tom Brady if we trade Jimmy G or play the string out and let him go?
Answer: It becomes very speculative. Best case scenario is Jacoby Brissett, who would have 2 years to get ready to become a primary quarterback, stepping in and ensuring continuity. Alternatively we may draft and develop another young quarterback.
Question: What are the odds of that and how do they compare to the odds of quality replacement quarterbacking from Garoppolo?
Answer: By virtue of having further to go at the moment, the odds of Jacoby Brissett developing into a valuable starting quarterback are inferior to the odds of Jimmy Garoppolo doing so.
Question: What are the odds of successfully developing any quarterback we draft now, within a window that would see them replace Tom Brady as starters, and how does this compare to the odds of Garoppolo acceptably replacing Brady?
Answer: Since we can't know any particulars about who and what these potential quarterbacks are, this is not knowable, but likely to be inferior to the odds of a successful replacement of Brady by Garoppolo for the same reasons Jacoby Brissett would have inferior odds -- they would have further to go.
Question: If we assume that Jimmy Garoppolo is the most viable replacement available over the period Brady is expected to play his final years, is there enough value in the surety of succession to be worth forcing Brady out after the maximum period we can hold onto Garoppolo, in order to ensure we have the best possible replacement available when the time comes to hand the reins of the team over to a new quarterback
Answer: Given that assumption, yes. If the decision is to gamble on Garoppolo, or in other words if the assumption is that Jimmy Garoppolo is likely to be a better replacement than anyone else we can arrange in the remaining years of TB12's service with the team, the best possible decision is to maximize Brady for the next 2 years, giving him the best possible opportunity to amass hardware in his final seasons, while the team can exert contract control over Garoppolo, then as we are just about to lose Garoppolo to free agency, say goodbye to the GOAT and transition the team to the long-suffering understudy.
Question: What signs should fans be looking for that this is the direction the team will go in?
Answer: Obviously, the biggest sign is that Garoppolo is not traded. Additionally, look for the team to work Garoppolo into the game aggressively, such as putting him in games whenever Brady achieves a 2 possession lead, to maximize Garoppolo's development during the final years of the Brady era. If the GOAT starts losing playing time to Garoppolo in situations where he might otherwise be playing if Garoppolo was being thought of as the backup rather than the heir, then that's a good tipoff that the franchise is getting ready to move on in the immediate future.
