"Third and Short" or "Third and Long"?

[Betterthanmost]

I have not done the research well, but I have noticed that the defense as it stand presently is better in third and short than Third and Long. Has anybody also got that feeling about this young defense? Where can I get the stats to support this hypothesis?
p.s.
Has anyone seen Patpsycho recently?

 

[billdog3484]

I have not done the research well, but I have noticed that the defense as it stand presently is better in third and short than Third and Long. Has anybody also got that feeling about this young defense? Where can I get the starts to support this hypothesis?
p.s.
Has anyone seen Patpsycho recently?

i have thought this for years. id much rather our defense face a 3rd and 2 than 3rd and 8. makes no sense, but thats how i feel

i thought going into this year we'd struggle on the 3rd and short situations, having lost Seymour last year and Warren this year. but, things seem to be the same

 

[Brettlax3434]

Yeah I think we have the best short yard defense in the league, which is why we bend but don't break in the redzone. That being said, I think the defense has greatly improved from early in the year on third and longs. We still have a long way to go though.

 

[voluntarysaftey]

i think its also memory selection bias.

When a team makes a 3&long you remember it; if it fails, you forget it
When a team makes a 3&short, you forget it; if it fails, you remember it

 

[IcyPatriot]

Well we have good buffalo's and rhino's and our puma's are a work in progress.

 

[TheComeback]

We're better against the run than the pass. That's why we seem stronger on 3rd and short. I'm not sure if we actually are, however.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

New England Patriots are losing time of possesion battle - ESPN Boston

This link was posted in another thread and doesn't include figures from the Vikings game. But it shows opponents converting 48.8% of the time overall, but only 42.4% on 3rd and 6+ and 40% on 3rd and 10+, meaning they must be converting a lot of the shorter opportunities to get the overall percentage up to 48.8%.

 

[SVN]

I have not done the research well, but I have noticed that the defense as it stand presently is better in third and short than Third and Long. Has anybody also got that feeling about this young defense? Where can I get the starts to support this hypothesis?
p.s.
Has anyone seen Patpsycho recently?

its probably because teams run on 3rd on 1 or 3rd and 2 on us and our rush defense is good. They would be smart to throw IMO.

 

[Betterthanmost]

New England Patriots are losing time of possesion battle - ESPN Boston

This link was posted in another thread and doesn't include figures from the Vikings game. But it shows opponents converting 48.8% of the time overall, but only 42.4% on 3rd and 6+ and 40% on 3rd and 10+, meaning they must be converting a lot of the shorter opportunities to get the overall percentage up to 48.8%.

Hmm, it has been a while for my maths skills but I don't understand your conclusion.

Ok, lets say x is the total number of completion for then we can partition x into three bins, 3rd and (1 to 6), 3rd and (+6 to 10), 3rd and (+10).
Does that not mean we have 17.6% conversion rate for 3rd and short? i.e. 3rd and(1 to 6)?
Unless I don't understand that statement.

 

[Kdo5]

Its because they usually aren't throwing against our secondary on third down and short. Don't think I'm insulting our secondary because they are getting better and have huge potential!

 

[Patspsycho]

Has anyone seen Patpsycho recently?

 

[jmt57]

Patriots 38, Bengals 24
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 2 at CIN 40 (Shotgun) C.Palmer sacked at CIN 36 for -4 yards
[Q1, 7-0]3rd and 2 at CIN 28 C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to D.Coats
[Q2, 10-0]3rd and 6 at CIN 42 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass short left to T.Owens to CIN 43 for 1 yard
[Q2, 17-0]3rd and 3 at CIN 27 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass short right to J.Shipley to CIN 30 for 3 yards
[Q2, 24-0]3rd and 6 at CIN 32 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to C.Ochocinco. PENALTY, 5 yards - No Play
[Q2, 24-0]3rd and 1 at CIN 37 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass short middle to T.Owens to CIN 41 for 4 yards
[Q2, 24-0]3rd and 1 at NE 40 (No Huddle) C.Palmer up the middle to NE 40 for no gain
[Q2, 24-0]4th and 1 at NE 40 C.Palmer up the middle to NE 38 for 2 yard
[Q2, 24-0]3rd and 7 at NE 35 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass incomplete deep right to T.Owens
[Q3, 31-3]3rd and 11 at CIN 49 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass short right to J.Shipley to NE 40 for 11 yards
[Q3, 31-10]3rd and 8 at CIN 29 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass short middle to T.Owens to CIN 42 for 13 yard
[Q3, 31-10]3rd and 1 at NE 49 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass short middle to Be.Scott to NE 45 for 4 yard
[Q3, 31-10]3rd and 5 at NE 40 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass short left to C.Ochocinco to NE 36 for 4 yards
[Q4, 38-17]3rd and 12 at CIN 22 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass short left to C.Ochocinco pushed ob at CIN 47 for 25 yards
[Q4, 38-17]3rd and 6 at NE 49 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass incomplete deep left to T.Owen
[Q4, 38-17]3rd and 3 at NE 20 (Shotgun) C.Palmer pass short middle to J.Shipley to NE 7 for 13 yards
[Q4, 38-24]3rd and 1 at CIN 16 (No Huddle) C.Palmer pass short left to J.Shipley to CIN 20 for 4 yards

What I'm seeing in this game is not so much 3rd & long vs 3rd and short, as 3rd when it matters vs 3rd when it doesn't matter.

 

[jmt57]

Jets 28, Pats 14
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 5 at NYJ 32 M.Sanchez pass incomplete short left to L.Tomlinson
[Q2, 7-0]3rd and 6 at NYJ 27 M.Sanchez pass short right to B.Edwards to NYJ 40 for 13 yards (D.McCourty)
[Q2, 7-0]3rd and 7 at NYJ 43 (Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short left to B.Edwards ran ob at NE 46 for 11 yards
[Q2, 7-0]3rd and 3 at NE 10 M.Sanchez pass short left to B.Edwards for 10 yards, TD
[Q2, 7-7]3rd and 12 at NYJ 41 (Shotgun) L.Tomlinson up the middle to NYJ 45 for 4 yards (M.Pryor)
[Q3, 14-10]3rd and 15 at NYJ 23 (Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete deep middle to J.Cotchery
[Q3, 14-10]3rd and 1 at NYJ 12 M.Sanchez pass deep left to D.Keller to NE 49 for 39 yards (D.Butler)
[Q3, 14-10]3rd and 3 at NE 17 M.Sanchez pass incomplete deep right to J.Cotchery
[Q4, 14-21]3rd and 7 at NE 45 (Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete short right to D.Keller (M.Wright)
[Q4, 14-21]3rd and 1 at NYJ 46 M.Sanchez left guard to NYJ 48 for 2 yards (T.Banta-Cain)
[Q4, 14-21]3rd and 1 at NE 1 M.Sanchez pass short left to D.Keller for 1 yard, TD

Looks like the Pats held up on four out of six of five yards or more, none of 3rd & 10 or longer, and overall the Jets did better on third and short.

 

[jmt57]

Pats 38, Bills 30
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 3 at BUF 40 (Shotgun) R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to St. Johnson to NE 45 for 15 yards (P.Chung)
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 2 at NE 21 (Shotgun) R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short right to L.Evans
[Q1, 0-3]3rd and 18 at BUF 19 (Shotgun) R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to R.Parrish to BUF 39 for 20 yards (P.Chung)
[Q1, 7-3]3rd and 5 at BUF 44 (Shotgun) R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short middle to St. Johnson [G.Guyton]
[Q2, 7-3]3rd and 5 at NE 35 (Shotgun) R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to L.Evans to NE 18 for 17 yards (D.McCourty)
[Q2, 7-3]3rd and 14 at NE 22 (Shotgun) R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to C.Spiller to NE 21 for 1 yard (J.Mayo, K.Arrington)
[Q2, 7-6]3rd and 5 at NE 5 (Shotgun) R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to C.Spiller for 5 yards, TD
[Q2, 14-13]3rd and 6 at NE 22 (Shotgun) R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle to NE 17 for 5 yards (P.Chung, J.Sanders)
[Q3, 24-23]3rd and 12 at NE 41 (Shotgun) R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to R.Parrish to NE 33 for 8 yards (P.Chung)
[Q4, 38-23]3rd and 6 at BUF 34 (Shotgun) R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to St. Johnson to BUF 48 for 14 yards (J.Page)

Yes, the last third down conversion was on touchdown drive, but that was with four minutes remaining.

 

[jmt57]

Patriots 41, Dolphins 14
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 3 at MIA 39 C.Henne pass short middle to A.Fasano to NE 40 for 21 yards (B.Meriweather)
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 6 at NE 36 (Shotgun) Direct snap to R.Brown. R.Brown up the middle to NE 38 for -2 yards (J.Cunningham)
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 8 at NE 19 C.Henne pass short right to D.Bess for 19 yards, TD
[Q1, 0-7]3rd and 11 at MIA 32 C.Henne pass short left to D.Bess to MIA 45 for 13 yards (J.Mayo)
[Q2, 3-7]3rd and 6 at MIA 25 (Shotgun) C.Henne pass short right to D.Bess to MIA 39 for 14 yards (J.Wilhite)
[Q2, 3-7]3rd and 10 at MIA 39 (Shotgun) C.Henne pass incomplete deep right to B.Hartline [M.Pryor]. PENALTY on NE-D.McCourty, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at MIA 39 - No Play
[Q3, 13-7]3rd and 8 at MIA 22 (Shotgun) C.Henne pass short right to B.Marshall to MIA 26 for 4 yards (J.Wilhite)
[Q3, 20-7]3rd and 1 at MIA 29 R.Williams left guard to MIA 40 for 11 yards (R.Ninkovich)
[Q3, 20-7]3rd and 5 at MIA 45 C.Henne pass short left to A.Fasano to NE 42 for 13 yards (K.Arrington)
[Q3, 27-14]3rd and 4 at MIA 26 C.Henne pass short right to D.Bess to MIA 31 for 5 yards (D.McCourty)
[Q4, 27-14]3rd and 17 at NE 36 (Shotgun) C.Henne pass incomplete short left to D.Bess
[Q4, 34-14]3rd and 1 at MIA 29 (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Henne pass short right to B.Marshall to MIA 37 for 8 yards (P.Chung)
[Q4, 34-14]3rd and 3 at MIA 44 R.Brown up the middle to MIA 45 for 1 yard (M.Wright)
[Q4, 34-14]4th and 2 at MIA 45 C.Henne pass short right to R.Brown to MIA 45 for no gain (D.McCourty)
[Q4, 34-14]3rd and 2 at MIA 26 R.Brown left guard to MIA 28 for 2 yards (B.Deaderick)
[Q4, 41-14]3rd and 10 at MIA 33 T.Thigpen right guard to MIA 45 for 12 yards (J.Mayo)
[Q4, 41-14]3rd and 6 at NE 40 T.Thigpen pass deep middle intended for B.Hartline INTERCEPTED by J.Page at NE 23. J.Page to NE 23 for no gain (B.Hartline)

Don't overlook the blocks following some of those third down stops.

 

[jmt57]

Patriots 23, Ravens 20
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 10 at BAL 11 (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short left to T.Houshmandzadeh to BLT 26 for 15 yards (M.Wright, M.Pryor)
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 9 at NE 33 (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short right to T.Heap pushed ob at NE 16 for 17 yards (G.Guyton, B.Meriweather)
[Q1, 0-3]3rd and 4 at BAL 28 (Shotgun) J.Flacco sacked at BLT 25 for -3 yards (M.Wright)
[Q2, 7-10]3rd and 18 at BAL 30 (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short right to E.****son to BLT 37 for 7 yards (R.Ninkovich)
[Q2, 7-10]3rd and 6 at BAL 45 J.Flacco scrambles left end to 50 for 5 yards (G.Guyton)
[Q2, 7-10]3rd and 9 at BAL 46 (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short left to R.Rice to 50 for 4 yards (G.Guyton)
[Q3, 10-17]3rd and 4 at NE 44 (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass deep right to D.Mason to NE 26 for 18 yards (B.Meriweather)
[Q3, 10-17]3rd and 4 at NE 20 J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to A.Boldin. PENALTY on NE-K.Arrington, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NE 20 - No Play
[Q4, 10-17]3rd and 2 at NE 7 (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to D.Mason
[Q4, 17-20]3rd and 1 at BAL 47 J.Flacco up the middle to BLT 47 for no gain (V.Wilfork, G.Warren)
[Q4, 20-20]3rd and 6 at BAL 24 (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to R.Rice
[OT-1]3rd and 5 at BAL 25 (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to A.Boldin
[OT-2]3rd and 1 at BAL 26 L.McClain up the middle to BLT 28 for 2 yards (P.Chung)
[OT-2]3rd and 6 at NE 48 (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to T.Heap (D.McCourty)
[OT-3]3rd and 19 at BAL 10 (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short middle to R.Rice to BLT 19 for 9 yards (J.Mayo, J.Wilhite)

Ravens had some 3rd down success early, but not much after the first quarter.

 

[jmt57]

Patriots 23, Chargers 20
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 8 at SD 43 (13:29) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete short right
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 7 at NE 47 (9:48) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short middle to C.Davis to NE 39 for 8 yards (J.Mayo)
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 9 at NE 14 (5:32) P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to C.Davis
[Q1, 0-3]3rd and 15 at SD 13 (3:35) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short left to K.Wilson to SD 24 for 11 yards (D.Fletcher). FUMBLES (D.Fletcher), RECOVERED by NE-J.Mayo at SD 22
[Q2, 7-3]3rd and 1 at SD 28 (11:53) M.Tolbert left end to SD 28 for no gain (T.Banta-Cain, J.Mayo). PENALTY on NE-D.McCourty, Defensive 12 On-field, 5 yards, enforced at SD 28 - No Play
[Q2, 7-3]3rd and 3 at SD 40 (10:15) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short right to P.Crayton to NE 47 for 13 yards (G.Guyton, D.McCourty)
[Q2, 10-3]3rd and 17 at SD 22 (5:11) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass deep right intended for P.Crayton INTERCEPTED by D.McCourty at NE 42. D.McCourty ran ob at NE 42 for no gain (P.Crayton)
[Q2, 10-3]3rd and 2 at SD 37 (2:18) P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to R.Mathews.
[Q3, 20-3]3rd and 4 at NE 30 (2:47) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short middle to P.Crayton to NE 25 for 5 yards (B.Meriweather)
[Q3, 20-3]3rd and 13 at NE 16 19) P.Rivers pass short left to C.Davis to NE 10 for 6 yards (K.Arrington)
[Q4, 23-6]3rd and 15 at SD 28 (10:55) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass deep right to P.Crayton to SD 49 for 21 yards (J.Sanders, J.Mayo)
[Q4, 23-6]3rd and 5 at NE 32 (9:15) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to P.Crayton
[Q4, 23-6]4th and 5 at NE 32 (9:10) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass deep middle to P.Crayton to NE 15 for 17 yards (B.Meriweather)
[Q4, 23-13]3rd and 9 at SD 41 (6:47) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass deep right to S.Ajirotutu to NE 39 for 20 yards (B.Meriweather)
[Q4, 23-13]3rd and 1 at NE 1 (4:04) M.Tolbert up the middle for 1 yard, TD
[Q4, 23-20]3rd and 10 at NE 35 (1:14) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short right to A.Gates to NE 27 for 8 yards (S.Brown)

The 3rd down stop by Sergio Brown on 3rd and ten was clutch.

 

[jmt57]

Pats 28, Vikings 18
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 1 at MIN 42 (7:35) A.Peterson left end to MIN 42 for no gain (J.Mayo)
[Q1, 0-0]3rd and 5 at NE 37 (2:40) (Shotgun) B.Favre pass short middle to B.Berrian to NE 28 for 9 yards (D.McCourty)
[Q2, 7-7]3rd and 12 at NE 47 (7:57) (Shotgun) B.Favre pass short left to B.Berrian to NE 41 for 6 yards (D.McCourty)
[Q2, 7-7]3rd and 11 at NE 11 (1:55) (Shotgun) B.Favre pass short middle to T.Gerhart to NE 1 for 10 yards (J.Wilhite, J.Mayo)
[Q2, 7-7]4th and 1 at NE 1 (1:07) R.Cook reported in as eligible. A.Peterson right guard to NE 3 for -2 yards (J.Cunningham, B.Spikes)
[Q3, 7-7]3rd and 1 at MIN 36 (13:36) A.Peterson up the middle to MIN 37 for 1 yard (G.Warren, R.Brace)
[Q3, 7-7]3rd and 2 at NE 38 (11:31) B.Favre pass deep right to A.Peterson pushed ob at NE 13 for 25 yards (B.Meriweather)
[Q3, 7-7]3rd and 2 at NE 5 (9:41) (Shotgun) B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to B.Berrian [T.Banta-Cain]
[Q3, 14-10]3rd and 6 at MIN 45 (7:10) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN -P.Loadholt, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 45 - No Play
[Q3, 14-10]3rd and 11 at MIN 40 (6:58) (Shotgun) B.Favre pass short right to P.Harvin to 50 for 10 yards (J.Sanders, J.Wilhite)
[Q3, 21-10]3rd and 3 at MIN 36 (1:05) (Shotgun) B.Favre pass short left to V.Shiancoe to MIN 37 for 1 yard (R.Ninkovich)
[Q4, 21-10]3rd and 10 at 50 (10:06) (Shotgun) B.Favre pass short right to T.Gerhart to NE 30 for 20 yards (T.Banta-Cain)
[Q4, 21-10]3rd and 13 at NE 33 (8:31) (Shotgun) B.Favre pass incomplete deep left to R.Moss. PENALTY on NE-B.Meriweather, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at NE 33 - No Play
[Q4, 21-10]3rd and 3 at NE 3 (7:35) (Shotgun) B.Favre pass incomplete short left to R.Moss [M.Pryor]. MIN-B.Favre was injured during the play. PENALTY on NE-J.Wilhite, Illegal Contact, 2 yards, enforced at NE 3 - No Play
[Q4, 28-18]3rd and 14 at 50 13) (Shotgun) T.Jackson pass incomplete short right to G.Lewis [M.Wright]

For the most part the Pats seemed to do okay on third and long.

 

[RayClay]

I'm not going to read all that, and I'm not an X and O guy, but...

I think our pass defense is predicated on stopping the big play and sidelines and allowing the short stuff inside.

If successful, this leaves the offense certain predictable options, giving our DBs later chances to switch up coverage and jump routes.

With a young secondary, we're probably playing it safe and not transitioning to the second phase. Still getting turnovers through athleticism, though.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Hmm, it has been a while for my maths skills but I don't understand your conclusion.

Ok, lets say x is the total number of completion for then we can partition x into three bins, 3rd and (1 to 6), 3rd and (+6 to 10), 3rd and (+10).
Does that not mean we have 17.6% conversion rate for 3rd and short? i.e. 3rd and(1 to 6)?
Unless I don't understand that statement.

Man, I hate dealing with math in the mornings. And the afternoons. And the evenings.

Lets simplify this further to the OP: 3rd and short vs. 3rd and long. Unfortunately, that link didn't have the 3rd and short stat.

3rd and 6+ was 42%, 3rd and 10+ was 40%, lets just simplify and say 40%. And we know overall is 48%. Since the stat is averaged, it means our 3rd and short must be significantly higher to raise the average 7%.

Lets assume 50 conversion attempts at each for simplicity, so it adds up to 100. 20 3rd and long attempts would be completed for the 40%. To obtain a 48% overall average, that means for 3rd and short, we give up 28 out of 50 attempts, or 56%. It's averaged out across the different categories.

Apologies if there are any math errors or if I don't make much sense in this post. It's 6:45 am and I'm still on coffee #1.