I have a little different take:
Fins
On defense, they traded Dansby (and a boatload of cap space) for Ellerby and Wheeler. While that is an upgrade, they lost Smith at CB and the remaining depth is somewhere between poor and horrific. The draft is solid this year at CB, but that puts a lot of pressure on rooks to deliver right away.
On offense, they have a 2nd year QB that completed under 60% of passes, threw more interceptions than TDs, got hit all the time and has a nasty habit of putting the ball on the turf. They have questions on the OL on both sides of Pouncey, a lead RB that averages about 3.5 ypc over his career and they signed a glorified WR for their TE. Add in the WR signings and it is clear the season will squarely fall on Tannehill's shoulders. Good luck with that.
Bills
New coach. New QB. Lost their steadiest player on the OL. Not much else changed. Will need to go high on QB and OG in the draft so not much help for them in other positions in April. Expecting a winning season seems like a stretch.
Jets
A dumpster fire. Actually, a flaming garbage scow aimlessly adrift on the Hudson. The coach is gone sooner rather than later and the players couldn't care less. Same for the QB. They are starting over and will be jockeying for draft position by Thanksgiving...possibly Halloween.
To recap, the Fins are over-rated, the Jets are an organizational mess and the Bills are exactly who they've been since the 90's. Outside of swapping the Fins and Jets, I'm not sure how this is different from last year (and most years over the last decade plus).
