The roster mistake (almost) every analyst makes with the Pats

[BradyManny]

I guess it took us a couple thousand words to say, "I agree."

LOL, yup - well put.

 

[Froob]

Don't most teams? Could be wrong on that. But, I agree with Belichick's emphasis. The margin of winning a championship is so small, say somebody tackled Jacoby Jones on that kickoff return at the ravens 20 instead of giving up a touchdown in the super bowl. Who wins that game now? I'll take a stud STer like Slater vs a mediocre wide out any day of the week.

 

[belichick010405]

From my view, this is a year where positional versatility is going to allow positional players to have a large impact on special teams.

I think that Jamie Collins and Steve Beauharnais play a large role on special teams making the need for someone like Fletcher, Rivera, Tarpinian and Koutovides to be clearly expendable because of injury history or their one-purpose/backup role.

If I had to make a call on who are the nine primary special team contributors, they would be Collins, Beauharnais, Ryan, Harmon, T. Wilson, Slater, Aiken (unless someone steps up and becomes the long snapper), and two other guys. Hightower played special teams last year and could be a part of that unit. I could be wrong but I think that remember Chandler Jones being a part of that unit at times as well which in my view means that maybe someone like Buchanan making the roster and playing special teams as well.

The more I think about it - Cole is probably making this team ahead of Ebner with Ebner still in contention for a roster spot. It would be nice if we had another wide receiver who played on the special teams unit and saw regular snaps outside of the customary punt return (Edelman).

 

[goheels22002]

Don't most teams? Could be wrong on that. But, I agree with Belichick's emphasis. The margin of winning a championship is so small, say somebody tackled Jacoby Jones on that kickoff return at the ravens 20 instead of giving up a touchdown in the super bowl. Who wins that game now? I'll take a stud STer like Slater vs a mediocre wide out any day of the week.

You are exactly correct about the margin of winning in the NFL is so small. Ask the Houston Texans.

The overall rank of the Pats at #4 on Special Teams is a reflection of a) emphasis on roster and player versatility, b) salary cap management to pay special teamers very competitively, and c) coaching.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2012 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

If you look at the Football Outsiders chart in the link above, what teams do you see at the bottom? Old teams and teams with screwed up cap numbers. It's tough to cover punts and kickoffs with old free agents and minimum salary guys.

The most overlooked coach on the Pats staff is Scott O'Brien, the Dante Scarnecchia of special teams: http://www.patriots.com/team/coaches/scott-obrien/7653db85-b9ff-4d57-aa89-18eea8365798

The Texans were dead last in special teams in 2012 and 31st of 32 teams in 2011. They were early season big shots in 2012 - "best team in the AFC" - until they got demolished by the Patriots. When you start every series giving up field position or risking turnovers in the kicking game, you are screwed against the good teams. #1 on the list? Baltimore, Super Bowl champions.

 

[ewg_gestalt]

I was super high on him entering last season. He just didn't have the impact I hoped. So now I'm down on him.

That said I hope you're right and I'm wrong and he shows improvements this year and makes the team, and provides the the impact I had hoped last season.

Part of the reason Ebner didn't seem to make as much impact as he "should have" is that some teams took him seriously as a threat on ST.

For instance, look at the fumble TD in the Thanksgiving game against the Jets. Ebner was double-covered by the Jets on that play. That effectively took him out of the play, but also allowed the Pats to get more men blocking against the Jets' formation, and allowed Edelman to get free to catch the fumble and score the TD.

I think of Ebner's and Slater's contributions to ST's like Wilfork's is to the defense: a presence that must be countered, lest it wreak havoc.

 

[Julius]

Yeah, he made a couple of mistakes, but he still had the second highest snap total of any ST player (more than Slater, in fact) and the second highest tackle total. The Pats weren't concerned enough with his play to ever make him a healthy scratch.

I thought Ebner made some of the best form tackles I have seen in a long time. Guys just drop.

 

[Brady6]

Part of the reason Ebner didn't seem to make as much impact as he "should have" is that some teams took him seriously as a threat on ST.

For instance, look at the fumble TD in the Thanksgiving game against the Jets. Ebner was double-covered by the Jets on that play. That effectively took him out of the play, but also allowed the Pats to get more men blocking against the Jets' formation, and allowed Edelman to get free to catch the fumble and score the TD.

I think of Ebner's and Slater's contributions to ST's like Wilfork's is to the defense: a presence that must be countered, lest it wreak havoc.

I think if you're making the case for Ebner than you have to make an even stronger case for Cole. He was the best special teams player not named Slater on this team last year bar none.