maineman209
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2017
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- 9,642
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You’re going to go crazy doing this every week as teams go up and down.
First of all, you're assuming that I'm not already looney-toons. Not a safe bet.
B) Doing this every week wouldn't drive me crazy in any case, since the math is actually simple enough to do in my head. The rest is just a few interrelated, "if-then" scenarios.
4. I'm not projecting any team's ultimate season record, and any speculation in that regard is irrelevant to the math ...
The Pats are now one game behind the Jags in overall record and have lost to them head-to head.
For the Pats to finish the season tied with the Jags on overall record, they need to win one more game than the Jags do over the course of the rest of the season. Even so, the Jags will have HFA over the Pats in the playoffs because they now own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
ERGO - the Pats now need to win two more games than the Jags do in order to finish one game ahead of them on overall record, thus nullifying the tiebreaker. This is a fact.
... As the extreme example, if the Jags win 12 more to finish 14-2, then the Pats need to win out and finish 15-1 to nullify that HFA tiebreaker. If the Jags win 13 more, there's now nothing that the Pats can do. I'm not suggesting that the Jags WILL win 12 or 13 more games, I'm merely using this as an example of how the math works.
ERGO - any loss by the Jags, coupled with a Pats win, is good for the Pats.
As it stands, the Jets own no tiebreakers over the Pats. So, as long as the Pats match them win-for-win, and then beat the Jets in head-to-head, it's fine for the Jets to beat the Pats other rivals for HFA.
ERGO - I'll be rooting for the Jets against the Jags in week-4, even if the Jags lose to the Titans this coming Sunday.