The Other AFC Contenders and Race for the 1 seed

[maineman209]

You’re going to go crazy doing this every week as teams go up and down.

First of all, you're assuming that I'm not already looney-toons. Not a safe bet.

B) Doing this every week wouldn't drive me crazy in any case, since the math is actually simple enough to do in my head. The rest is just a few interrelated, "if-then" scenarios.

4. I'm not projecting any team's ultimate season record, and any speculation in that regard is irrelevant to the math ...

The Pats are now one game behind the Jags in overall record and have lost to them head-to head.

For the Pats to finish the season tied with the Jags on overall record, they need to win one more game than the Jags do over the course of the rest of the season. Even so, the Jags will have HFA over the Pats in the playoffs because they now own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

ERGO - the Pats now need to win two more games than the Jags do in order to finish one game ahead of them on overall record, thus nullifying the tiebreaker. This is a fact.
... As the extreme example, if the Jags win 12 more to finish 14-2, then the Pats need to win out and finish 15-1 to nullify that HFA tiebreaker. If the Jags win 13 more, there's now nothing that the Pats can do. I'm not suggesting that the Jags WILL win 12 or 13 more games, I'm merely using this as an example of how the math works.

ERGO - any loss by the Jags, coupled with a Pats win, is good for the Pats.

As it stands, the Jets own no tiebreakers over the Pats. So, as long as the Pats match them win-for-win, and then beat the Jets in head-to-head, it's fine for the Jets to beat the Pats other rivals for HFA.

ERGO - I'll be rooting for the Jets against the Jags in week-4, even if the Jags lose to the Titans this coming Sunday.

 

[titletownpats]

I remember the Chiefs had 3.5 game lead last season on the Pats in week 5 or 6. I remember thinking there is no chance we catch them and the Pats did by around week 10

 

[Ring 6]

First of all, you're assuming that I'm not already looney-toons. Not a safe bet.

B) Doing this every week wouldn't drive me crazy in any case, since the math is actually simple enough to do in my head. The rest is just a few interrelated, "if-then" scenarios.

4. I'm not projecting any team's ultimate season record, and any speculation in that regard is irrelevant to the math ...

The Pats are now one game behind the Jags in overall record and have lost to them head-to head.

For the Pats to finish the season tied with the Jags on overall record, they need to win one more game than the Jags do over the course of the rest of the season. Even so, the Jags will have HFA over the Pats in the playoffs because they now own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

ERGO - the Pats now need to win two more games than the Jags do in order to finish one game ahead of them on overall record, thus nullifying the tiebreaker. This is a fact.
... As the extreme example, if the Jags win 12 more to finish 14-2, then the Pats need to win out and finish 15-1 to nullify that HFA tiebreaker. If the Jags win 13 more, there's now nothing that the Pats can do. I'm not suggesting that the Jags WILL win 12 or 13 more games, I'm merely using this as an example of how the math works.

ERGO - any loss by the Jags, coupled with a Pats win, is good for the Pats.

As it stands, the Jets own no tiebreakers over the Pats. So, as long as the Pats match them win-for-win, and then beat the Jets in head-to-head, it's fine for the Jets to beat the Pats other rivals for HFA.

ERGO - I'll be rooting for the Jets against the Jags in week-4, even if the Jags lose to the Titans this coming Sunday.

Jets and patriot tiebreakers are first lol and second irrelevant because they play each other twice.

 

[XLIX]

Regardless of any opinions about how good the Jags or Jets are (or not) or will be over the course of the remaining season, the math regarding HFA is this:

-- The Pats now absolutely need to win two more games than the Jags do over the course of the next 14 games.

That's not quite absolutely true. A 3-way tie could potentially throw H2H out the window, and the NFL has seen 2 3-way ties for the #1 seed in the past 4 years, so such things certainly do happen.

If the Jags win 12 of 14, the Pats will need to win out. If the Pats and Jags end up with the same W-L record, the Jags will have HFA over the Pats. Period.

As above, this is not necessarily an absolute given if a 3rd team enters the fray.

 

[maineman209]

That's not quite absolutely true. A 3-way tie could potentially throw H2H out the window, and the NFL has seen 2 3-way ties for the #1 seed in the past 4 years, so such things certainly do happen.
As above, this is not necessarily an absolute given if a 3rd team enters the fray.

I'm just stating the facts as they stand right now wrt whether it's "better" for the Pats if the Jets beat the Jags in week-4 or not. All the speculation in the world about what could happen between now and the end of week-17 don't alter those facts as they stand.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Playing for home field advantage??
It is Soooo early. Enjoy the season. Let things unfold the way they will unfold.
Usually things go pretty good for our favorite team. If things do not go great this
year, we need to be grateful for the run we had.

 

[Soliel]

It is too early to write anyone off.

Not yet at least.

True, not even cleaveland. Now why did lightning almost, never mind. The thing is, cern destroyed the universe and now look

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Yea, dont like the looks of jville’s schedule. They still haven’t proven to be consistent enough to be a 12 win team so i would still pick us right now at my 12-4 prediction.

Kc and denver im betting will fizzle.

Afcn looks like trash right now outside of the Bengals and they are the Bengals

 

[Joey007]

KC and Jacksonville should be hovering around 12 wins each.

 

[XLIX]

I'm just stating the facts as they stand right now wrt whether it's "better" for the Pats if the Jets beat the Jags in week-4 or not. All the speculation in the world about what could happen between now and the end of week-17 don't alter those facts as they stand.

Yes I understand that. And I am just stating that it is certainly in the realm of possibility that NE and Jax finish with the same record and NE gets the higher seed. Is it likely? No. But is has happened twice in the past 4 years.

You were talking about what was absolutely true, period, end of discussion. I am just pointing out that scenarios exist where the Pats tie the Jags and still get the #1 seed.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

It’s too bad we didn’t have gordon and edelman vs Jax. Would have destroyed them.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Through week 4, the top AFC contenders in no particular order IMO are:

1. NE
2. KC
3. Jax
4. Baltimore
5. Tennessee
6. Cincinatti

Not surprised that Pitt is falling off the map lol.

 

[Uptown]

Okay, channeling my inner @DW Toys here . . .

The Raiders will probably need some time before they claw their way back into relevance. I wonder whether or not we could pry away Cooper while Gruden works on his multi-year plan to rebuild the Raiders? We have several extra 3rds next year (thanks to comp picks), and also an extra 2nd. A change of scenery might be just what Cooper needs. His contract would need to be restructured, but he has talent. His first two years in the league showed that he could develop into a #1 receiver. A new start might be best for all parties involved.

I mentioned the same in another thread. Would be a great addition (potentially).

 

[Hyped]

We aren't out of the race yet, that is for sure.

Our remaining schedule is brutal...outside of Buffalo 2X, Jets 2X, and Indy 1X....we face these teams:

K.C., @CHI, GB, MIN, @Mia, @PIT, and @TEN.

Needless to say, we have our work cut out for us.

As of week 4:

#1.) K.C. - 4-0
#2.) CIN - 3-1 and undefeated in the conference.
#3.) TEN - 3-1 and beat Jaguars for the div tie breaker.
#4.) MIA - 3-1 and lead the AFCE
#5.) JAX - 3-1
#6.) BAL - 3-1
#7.) NE - 2-2...but only 1 conference loss.

Still a lot of football to be played...

 

[SHOWTIME15]

We aren't out of the race yet, that is for sure.

Our remaining schedule is brutal...outside of Buffalo 2X, Jets 2X, and Indy 1X....we face these teams:

K.C., @CHI, GB, MIN, @Mia, @PIT, and @TEN.

Needless to say, we have our work cut out for us.

As of week 4:

#1.) K.C. - 4-0
#2.) CIN - 3-1 and undefeated in the conference.
#3.) TEN - 3-1 and beat Jaguars for the div tie breaker.
#4.) MIA - 3-1 and lead the AFCE
#5.) JAX - 3-1
#6.) BAL - 3-1
#7.) NE - 2-2...but only 1 conference loss.

Still a lot of football to be played...

I think we can beat Minnesota, GB and Tennessee. KC and Chicago back to back will be the toughest by far. If we can beat them, I’ll feel a lot better.

 

[condon84]

Living in MD, i've seen Baltimore play. Their offense looks pretty good. John Brown is a really underrated receiver and he has chemistry with Flacco.

That game against the Bengals looks like an anomaly. It was an away game on a short week.

Their defense is not on par with Jax, but with their offense, i would say they are a better overall team. I just don't think Bortles can lead a team to a SB unless that team's defense is an all time great. And Jax's defense is good, but not great.

KC's defense look pretty soft. Denver's offense is gonna sink them.

I think right now it's Jax, Ravens, Pats.

We're going back to the SB unless we completely **** the bed.

Brady >> any of these QBs.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Through week 4, the top AFC contenders in no particular order IMO are:

1. NE
2. KC
3. Jax
4. Baltimore
5. Tennessee
6. Cincinatti

Not surprised that Pitt is falling off the map lol.

NE is 2-2. PIT is 1-2-1. If PIT is "falling off the map", what does that make a whopping 0.5 games ahead of PIT New England?

 

[SHOWTIME15]

NE is 2-2. PIT is 1-2-1. If PIT is "falling off the map", what does that make a whopping 0.5 games ahead of PIT New England?

I’m not talking records. At this point in the season the most any team can be behind another team is 4 games. I’m talking about the quality in their play, which hasn’t impressed me so far in any of their games. In addition, their best RB won’t sign his franchise tender until week 7 in an effort to get traded and their best WR is complaining. Things aren’t exactly looking up for them.

 

[Haterproof]

The real question is who should we root for in the Jags/Chiefs game! I'm pulling for KC to win in Arrowhead and us to knock them off the following week! This would have the tiebreaker system all screwed up down the line!

 

[Soliel]

The real question is who should we root for in the Jags/Chiefs game! I'm pulling for KC to win in Arrowhead and us to knock them off the following week! This would have the tiebreaker system all screwed up down the line!

That’s a hard choice. Either the over rated bunch of no good scabs or the systemized weather team load of choke artists. Hmm