To be completely honest, I think the Jets pose a bigger long-term risk to the Patriots than the Jags. The Jags have a terrible quarterback and are just cycling through a period of upswing because of a some huge free agency contracts and top-5 picks. They’ll mess it up again very soon when they don’t have clear superstars to draft and need to pay the emerging star players. The Jets have a lot of unknowns. Darnold may end being really good and they have a lot of cap flexibility. I suspect they’ll also screw it up as they usually do, but at least they have a potential franchise QB (which Bortles is not in any way.). But I’m rooting for the Jags just because it’s the Jets and I root for them to lose, unless there’s a really obvious advantage for Patriots in the Jets winning. I am not sold on that advantage yet.
Regardless of any opinions about how good the Jags or Jets are (or not) or will be over the course of the remaining season, the math regarding HFA is this:
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The Pats now absolutely need to win two more games than the Jags do over the course of the next 14 games. If the Jags win 12 of 14, the Pats will need to win out. If the Pats and Jags end up with the same W-L record, the Jags will have HFA over the Pats. Period.
-- The Pats won't have another opportunity to face the Jags until the playoffs to even the head-to-head record, so any loss by the Jags is good for the Pats.
-- The Pats are currently tied with the Jets on overall record, and one game ahead of the Jets in conference record and divisional record, but they have TWO opportunities to beat the Jets in head-to-head competition.
-- If the Pats and Jets both win on Sunday, The Pats and Jets will remain tied on overall record.
-- They will BECOME tied in conference record (1-1), since the Pats are playing non-conference DET and the Jets are playing
in-conference CLE, but the Pats will still be a game ahead of the Jets in divisional record. A Jets win at this stage doesn't hurt the Pats a bit, as long as the Pats at least match them, win-for-win.
In week-4, if the Pats beat the Fins in Foxboro and the Jets beat the Jags ...
-- The Pats will still be tied with the Jets in overall and conference records, but the Pats will be TWO games ahead of the Jets in divisional record.
-- WRT the Fins, the Pats would - at worst - be tied with them on overall record and divisional record and one game behind the Fins on conference record.
ERGO, root for the Jets in week-4 against the Jags.