The Official Vrabel vs Ben Johnson Discussion Thread

[KCSVEN]

Ive read this graft of text, without your context, so let me admit that I might be in the misinterpreted tier, but, in my 'research' I did some digging into old titans boards/reddit as well which re-affirmed my first interpretation of the text, so I'll present it first:

starting with main topic, these 50/50-ish decisions, he would use statistic WHEN it aligned with instincts. That doesn't suit well with me, because I understood that in a battle in analytics and instinct, instict would always win. You say he balances analytics with instinct, I've felt* he supersede them in these borderlines cases. Which I still do like.

Now to go to something that is more personal, which is his first paragraph. To me, it's outdated. To say that the data that we are using now is the same as always, expressed in "been using analytics forever", is just not true. Right now, Data anlysis use "Real time data", not really the same as to Probabilities tendencies of positional groupings. It's much much more evolved, but, from this graft, he doesnt transmit that energy of having close affinity to 'micro'-data (and to be clear, obviously Im biased since I live in the data analytics world, in a way)

With that out, I wasn't aware that the FO in Ten was this enthusiastic about data approach. This was almost 10 years ago, and it the technology world, it's a lot, so he needs to be ready for more. If, as you say, isn't against it, then I'd be glad to have him onboard, making his OC choice less worrysome - I do not know enough about Tim Kelly to provide an opinion

*and again, felt is the word here, not "know" or "think", as I have grown distant from the NFL in general the past years, and only dug into this very recently

Did you read the quote from Kyle Shanahan on analytics I think from the same reddit thread? Basically, says the same thing as Vrabel but more detailed. He says analytics is a tool but can't compensate for certain factors and thus it needs to be used as a tool and not a be all. Vrabel same thing.

The Browns are one of the more analytic oriented teams in the NFL and he was just there for a year.
Also, from after they fired Vrabel

The Titans wanted to make this season about evolving and modernizing their process behind the scenes. Building a roster with an increased reliance on analytics has been a big part of that. Vrabel wasn’t resistant to using analytics on the field — he and his coaching staff believed they used data-based decision-making as much as anyone and often get credit around the league for being one of the top situational football teams in the NFL. However, the coaches never felt informed on how the new personnel department was using analytics in its process, a team source said.

Honestly, when I first heard Vrabel I had a lot of doubts, old school, run the ball, doesn't rely on analytics, smash mouth football guy. Now that I've read about him the guy has a pretty high, maybe even brilliant, football mind.

 

[PaulThePat]

Whovever gets the job, be it Pep Hamilton or Byron Leftwich, the following 2 objectives are non-negotiable:

1. Maxmimise our prime asset i.e. Drake Maye. No regression. No Mac 2.0. Even a hint that you're wasting this kid, you're out
2. Get us back to respectibility. Not expecting Rings (for now) but we need to get back to 0.500 asap

 

[Water Boy]

I’ve seen him rumored to be everyone’s DC.
He’s more than likely going to be San Fran’s DC.

That's what Barth and Lazar were saying. His secondary scheme would minimize Gonzo's man coverage ability.

 

[JayNM]

Did you read the quote from Kyle Shanahan on analytics I think from the same reddit thread? Basically, says the same thing as Vrabel but more detailed. He says analytics is a tool but can't compensate for certain factors and thus it needs to be used as a tool and not a be all. Vrabel same thing.

The Browns are one of the more analytic oriented teams in the NFL and he was just there for a year.
Also, from after they fired Vrabel

The Titans wanted to make this season about evolving and modernizing their process behind the scenes. Building a roster with an increased reliance on analytics has been a big part of that. Vrabel wasn’t resistant to using analytics on the field — he and his coaching staff believed they used data-based decision-making as much as anyone and often get credit around the league for being one of the top situational football teams in the NFL. However, the coaches never felt informed on how the new personnel department was using analytics in its process, a team source said.

Honestly, when I first heard Vrabel I had a lot of doubts, old school, run the ball, doesn't rely on analytics, smash mouth football guy. Now that I've read about him the guy has a pretty high, maybe even brilliant, football mind.

I don't think I read anything from Shanahan, no, but I'm liking what you're bringing to the converstation. Can't say I'm 100% converted, but you might be right and he is less old-school than I was thinking.

Guess, Im hoping off the fence. Between Johnson and Vrabel, my vote is in Mike. Wouldn't complain about either one (for starts), but hey, there ya go

 

[Water Boy]

Yea I'm flipp-flopping as well. Still contemplating.

FWIW Barth and Lazar have a good debate on this topic on their Catch 22 podcast. Both would be happy with either, but Lazar is all in on the offensive upside of BJ, but Barth wants the proven track record of Vrabel and would rather keep searching for the right OC than get it wrong with BJ if he's lacking in running the entire organization.

I really think Vrabel is the perfect candidate. I think all Maye needs is a solid organizational foundation around him. Vrabel will get the most out of the players. In his time in Cleveland I heard he was coaching Oline a bit and really getting exposed to analytics.

 

[Water Boy]

A contrarian opinion i found

That's a lazy take. Vrabel never had a transcendent QB.

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

Interesting. If true that seems to say Robert is no longer in control, and Jonathan is running things. Mayo was Robert’s deal, last year and a few years ago when he wrote the succession clause into his contract after an airport departure lounge schmoozefest. Vrabel is now Jonathan’s deal, after they had dinner together and hammered out details of the deal.

But the whole idea that things work that way is so naive and overly simplistic. Robert and Jonathan were talking passionately during the Chargers game. Likely then, or perhaps later, Jonathan says “I think I’ll have dinner with Vrabel next week” and his dad answers “that’s a great idea” and a joint decision has been made. It’s not either one of them making the decision, it’s a collaborative decision. Remember that one of the things RKK stressed when he started pulling Bill’s leash tighter was collaboration, iirc that was stressed as a change in draft management a couple of years ago. This would be an example. And because this decision wasn’t explicit and scripted out in detail question like “when do we tell Jarod? Should we let him coach the last game?” never were asked and answered.

Robert knew about the meeting between Jonathan and Vrabel.

 

[TommyD4207]

That's a lazy take. Vrabel never had a transcendent QB.

How dare you **** on Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill?

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Ok, so the apparent dream team is Vrabel and McDaniels? Nothing like a good old reset.

Joshing aside (no pun intended), if it is Vrabel the offence better be like a 2025 offence i.e. no 20 points per week ****.

I think Vrabel brings Tommy Rees, not McDaniels.

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

FWIW Barth and Lazar have a good debate on this topic on their Catch 22 podcast. Both would be happy with either, but Lazar is all in on the offensive upside of BJ, but Barth wants the proven track record of Vrabel and would rather keep searching for the right OC than get it wrong with BJ if he's lacking in running the entire organization.

I really think Vrabel is the perfect candidate. I think all Maye needs is a solid organizational foundation around him. Vrabel will get the most out of the players. In his time in Cleveland I heard he was coaching Oline a bit and really getting exposed to analytics.

I'm team Vrabel. As much as it would be nice to have an offensive coach as HC, I am worried that BJ could be McDaniels 2.0. Great OC, Garbage HC. I rather take the safe experienced HC.

 

[Love The Drake]

I think Vrabel brings Tommy Rees, not McDaniels.

I agree he would I will be thrilled with either Vrabel or Johnson mortified if we lose both.

 

[KCSVEN]

I don't think I read anything from Shanahan, no, but I'm liking what you're bringing to the converstation. Can't say I'm 100% converted, but you might be right and he is less old-school than I was thinking.

Guess, Im hoping off the fence. Between Johnson and Vrabel, my vote is in Mike. Wouldn't complain about either one (for starts), but hey, there ya go

Here is the Shanahan Quote, its long and it is also older(2017) but goes along the lines of what I believe Vrabel believes

Kyle Shanahan on analytics: ‘I just try to not ever think in absolutes.’

The 49ers head coach offered some thoughts on how he uses analytics.

www.ninersnation.com

[Shanahan] “First of all, I think there is no absolute answer. I know you can get the analytics, and go with percentages and things like that, but there are penalties, there are missed field goals — there’s different opinions. And that’s why a lot of times you’ve gotta go with your gut, which is usually what I do. I always listen to the analytics, I hear the percentages, and then you’ve gotta go with how you feel.
“We were down two points when we were running the ball [regarding Bears game]. If they would have let us score, we probably would have scored, because I hadn’t told them to not do it yet. I was starting to do that on the last place, and that’s when I started to take a knee. And the reason being is I’ve had too many things go wrong in the past. When you’re down two points and someone is giving you the lead, that field goal isn’t guaranteed. I know field goals are high percentage, but you get a penalty, you get set back like that — we lead the league right now in red zone penalties. And the last two times we were down there, we had 2nd and 1 and got a number of penalties. I’m nervous about getting pushed back a little bit.
“You don’t want to be too picky and be too cute with it, but you also want to make sure you don’t give them time to come back. And I thought it worked out perfectly. Once they did tackle on the last power that we ran, we quickly went to the knee, and thought we could finish it with the field goal.
“But there was no exact answer there. And I’ve got a guy who helps me with the analytics standpoint upstairs. His name’s Cordell. We were talking about it through the whole exchange, and we didn’t feel 100 percent on what the right answer was until we took that knee.”
“I sit and meet with our analytics guys about once a week and go through stuff. It could say it’s a 95 percent field goal, but that doesn’t say what the weather is. That doesn’t say maybe your long snapper has been struggling. It doesn’t say how your kicker’s been struggling because of what happened the week before. There’s so many variables that go into things in the NFL — weather, home or on the road — that you can’t always take that stuff as absolutes.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Roman is in the Denver front office. Interesting

Anything to get rid of Wolf.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

I think Vrabel brings Tommy Rees, not McDaniels.

Personally would like if it wasn’t McDaniels. I think we’ve seen enough of him and it’s time to move on from the guy.

 

[TomPatriot]

I think Vrabel brings Tommy Rees, not McDaniels.

Well, he’s young and he’s coached TEs, which is a good prerequisite for being an OC.

 

[Love The Drake]

Call me crazy but Rees and McDaniels would be great and keep AVP on if you can.

 

[The Gr8est]

I’m 2022 his first losing season there he went 7-10 with most injury in the NFL.

Hope Vrabel doesn’t bring those conditioning coaches with him.

 

[Sect140]

Yea I'm flipp-flopping as well. Still contemplating.

Same here, I’m straddling the fence.

 

[lancerman]

That's a lazy take. Vrabel never had a transcendent QB.

There's only ever 4 transcendent QB's at a time in the league. Eli/Stafford/Flacco/Foles aren't transcendent QB's and they won SB's. Goff, Ryan, Newton, Kaepernick, Jimmy G, aren't trancedent QB's and they went to Super Bowls.

People here keep using Tannehill as an excuse for Vrabel but let's look at reality

2019: Tannehill was 1st in passer rating, 3rd in completion percentage, 1st in yards per average. His volume wasn't high because he missed 4 games if you average him out to 16 he's very easily top 10 or top 5 in yards and TD's

2020: 5th in passer rating, 9th in TD's, 6th in yards per average, 15th in yards. His big drop was completion percentage where he was at 65.5% which was still above league average and put him in the same ballpark as Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes that year.

Yeah you should easily be able to win with a QB playing like that.

He got injured in 2022 and really fell off in 2023 when he came back. Guess what happened to Vrabel's team once that happened? No more winning records.

FYI in case you were wondering, if Maye was playing like Tannehill did those two years I mentioned, it would be considered a massive success story for a new QB.

 

[lancerman]

Fisher had above average QBs in McNair and Young, Vrabel had a polished turd in Tannehill.

Look at where the tits are now in their first season without Vrabel: 3-14.

Tannehill was playing way way above average when Vrabel was winning lol.

Anyways there was someone else who left the Titans in 2023 that was basically their engine on offense that might have contributed to them losing 3 extra games. He's now the best player on a playoff team. Jeopardy music plays