The Official Re-Sign Graham Thread

[fgssand]

There's some validity to that although Brady and Seymour are different as they're in a different category totally. Branch still is not re-signed. Light, Bruschi, signed below market value.

You are right, Brady & Seymour are indeed in a different category.

I think it boils down to what we all agree on - value for the player for this team at the given position, versus the salary demands of that player as it relates, not necessarily to fair market value as determined by others (teams, press, agents, players) but value as determined by BB/SP.

I trust in BB/SP due to the results I have seen over the past 6 years and what I think and believe I will see as long as they all keep this thing together. There is no better situation in the NFL right now then what ew have right here with the Krafts, BB, SP and their coaches & staffs.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Yes, resign him. His run blocking is invaluable! He may not put up huge numbers, however, he's very important to the team.

 

[SoonerPatriot]

It will be interesting to see how they handle this in the draft. Personally, I think we'll take a TE high...doubt it will be in Rd. 1 (but it wouldnt' shock me to see us trade down and take one) but Rd. 2 wouldn't shock me at all. First rule of thumb on BB's drafting: Expect the unexpected. And right now few people are talking about us taking a TE high in the draft.

 

[desi-patsfan]

definetly resign him. Excellent blocker and a good receiver.

 

[Water Boy]

Let's just re-sign him!

Good Post. I think BB/SP want to resign Graham.

 

[shakadave]

Thanks to this thread, we've now lowered the overall percentage to less than 60% who think Graham will leave!

Any estimates on how many $mil per year he will get? I say we should offer him a 4-year extension worth $10 million, but I would love a second opinion.

 

[patsox23]

re-sign him now with some of the post-Deion surplus.

 

[14thDragon]

I think he can be shored up with an market value contract. I doubt many teams are going to pony up a first class contract and the patriots have maintained under BB/SP a strong decently paid middle class of players. Graham will undoutdly fall into that category.

 

[KY Pats Fan]

graham

One of, if not the best blocking TE's in the game. And has speed, can catch (finally) and run over people. Look at all of the other TE's in the league. Normally, you get one or the other, very seldom to you get both skills.

I say RESIGN.

 

[SamBamsFan]

History shows that what a player thinks he can, and usually does, get it most often more than what Belichick will pay. See Woody, Tebucky, Washington, Givens, McGinest, etc.

I think the difference in this case might be how much he saves you in the cost of Tackles over the past few years (and into the next few) w/ his blocking. Kenyatta, Gorin, and Ashworth were paid way below the league average, but w/ his assistance in double teaming, they were enough to win Super Bowls. The point is blocking TE's are paid way less than Tackles.

 

[zippo59]

I just watched the Pats 2004-2005 championship DVD. The dude is a touchdown machine.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Shaka, you've got him at 2.5 average per year for four years. Here are some TE contracts and extensions that are up after 2006:

(For comparison, Graham's current 5-year deal got him an average of 1.365M/year)

Reggie Kelley, Cin. (ext. signed 2003):
6.8M over 4 years, 1.7M per year average

Dwayne Carswell, Den. (2000):
9.625 over 7 years, 1.38M per year average

Ben Hartsock, Colts (2004):
1.47M over 3 years (491K/year)

Ben Troupe, Titans (2004):
The only info I have is that he got 1.8M in bonus money, on a 3 year deal +option year

Jason Witten, Cowboys - still on rookie deal. Cowboys gave him a first-round tender. Appealing to a better cap guru than myself on the price of a first-round TE tender.

Eric Johnson, 9ers (2004):
3 years, 4.5M, or 1.5 per year.

Jerramy Stevens, Sea (2002):
5 years, 6.2M, 1.24M/year

Of course, most of these guys would be trying to trade up from these deals - Graham's present deal is in that range. I think he's clearly the best of this group, except Witten.

What sets the top of this market?

Gonzo, KC (2002) -
Seven years, 31.5M (4.5M/yr average, but does he really go through 2009? And un-restructured? He counts 6.5M this year.)
(10M was guaranteed money)

Alge Crumpler, Atl (2004)
$26M extension, 6 years = 4.33M/year
(Again, does he ever really see the end of this extension, or is it paper?)
(9M guaranteed money)

Antonio Gates, SD (2005)
Up to $24M, 6 years = 4M/year
10-11M guaranteed

I'm too tired, but I understand Heap is in this group too. We won't talk about Winslow, just out of pity.
---------------------------------------------------------------
All this to say, $2.5M/year for four years might get you Grahambo. I've shot high on salary prognostication before... but it definitely settles him in a notch or two below the Heaps and Crumplers of the world. He should be a notch or two below the Gateses and Gonzos of the world.

I look through the list of availables, and realize that though the market might be flooded next year, none of those guys gives you everything Grahambo does. I don't see Witten or Eric Johnson lining up at Fullback. If you go much past that 2.5M/year figure, you have issues with Watson down the road (given that he is the pass-catching athletic freak in the making.) Sort of a raw deal for Graham, who plays that role on probably 25 out of 32 teams in the league... just not the Pats. But again, in keeping with the Patriot Way, I don't see Watson being awarded 4.5M a year (adjusted for inflation,) because the Pats aren't going to laser him the ball 24/7 like the Chiefs do with Gonzo or the Ravens do with Heap. Although... if we don't get some receivers in...

My initial point of view - try to stay at $10M, 4 years. Grahambo has what we call an intrinsic reward outlook, and an internal locus of control. That to say, he's not a huge risk in terms of "lack of incentive" if a good deal of money is guaranteed/on the table.

Pay him 6M up front, and the up-front money raises him from the ranks of the shmoes all clamoring to get paid, to the upper middle class of TEs.

Or... in this cap-rich year... who's for locking him up for 6 or 7 years instead? Especially with shorter rook contracts coming? I know I'd sleep better at night, and I just don't see Grahambo signing long-term then slacking.

Don't guarantee him so much of it that injury puts you in cap jail... but otherwise make the this-year vs. out-years tradeoff in bonus money. (Still sticking in maybe the 6-8M range.)

And if Watson utterly blows up and becomes Gonzo or Gates, guess what the difference in cost is?

A kicker. Well, roughly.

Thoughts?

PFnV

 

[zippo59]

What sets the top of this market?

Gonzo, KC (2002) -
Seven years, 31.5M (4.5M/yr average, but does he really go through 2009? And un-restructured? He counts 6.5M this year.)
(10M was guaranteed money)

Alge Crumpler, Atl (2004)
$26M extension, 6 years = 4.33M/year
(Again, does he ever really see the end of this extension, or is it paper?)
(9M guaranteed money)

Antonio Gates, SD (2005)
Up to $24M, 6 years = 4M/year
10-11M guaranteed

I think these are pretty good prices for the cremme de la cremme of TE's.

 

[Hoodie]

Yeah if he goes who will Brady butt heads with before every game???

Everytime they do that I think -- "remember Gus Ferrotte."

 

[shakadave]

Shaka, you've got him at 2.5 average per year for four years. Here are some TE contracts and extensions that are up after 2006:

What sets the top of this market?

All this to say, $2.5M/year for four years might get you Grahambo.

My initial point of view - try to stay at $10M, 4 years.

Thoughts?

PFnV

VaFan, this is the information I've been looking for! Thanks for the excellent breakdown. I can now see that maybe we'd want to cheat the later years of his contract up toward $3 million, or do something creative with a nice signing bonus as you suggest.

After sticking with Graham through thick and thin (thin being his case of the dropsies) I've got too much invested in him emotionally to let him go. Re-sign Graham!

 

[PatsFan37]

Grahambo has what we call an intrinsic reward outlook, and an internal locus of control. That to say, he's not a huge risk in terms of "lack of incentive" if a good deal of money is guaranteed/on the table.

Is that some kind of psycho you're babbling?

I agree, anyone as intimate with the Juggs as him and a gym rat to boot, even after getting first-round bonus money, is not a slack-off. All he needs to prosper is an OLine he can leave behind without risking Tommy.

Thanks for the excellent research. If BB thinks of TE's the way he thinks of DL's (and draft pick history argues for that), he will pay the man. Graham will make Watson better and vice versa.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I want to make a preemptive strike here, by way of caveat:

I did my research the old-fashioned way, that is to say, haphazardly. I googled and tried to use info that was from an 06 source (for Graham, once again, I'm indebted to Miguel.)

All that to say, if some of it's off, I toldya so - but this does seem to be the ballpark we're playing in.

Shakadave, I thought to make a point out of edging the average per year upwards, but then thought maybe you pegged it just right. Remember, as valuable as Grahambo is to the team, you're still looking at Watson as the more valuable of the two going forward (so goes the theory.) But in true Pats fashion, I see this as a 3M/year-2.5M/year split, unless Watson does hit the higher end of his potential. And in the Pats system, I don't see that as happening - he simply won't get enough looks to run up crazy stats. But I think if he does what he is asked to do, he will get "just-below-elite" pay.

And again, I consider myself one of the cap novices around here... always learning.

PFnV