The Mangini "Rat" Factor

[zippo59]

When Mangini left to coach the Jets there was a lot of animosity between him and Belichick, and according to media reports a lot of this was due to the fact that Mangini took the scouting book the Patriots had on Chad Pennington with him to show Chad how the Patriots prepared for him, the tendencies of his they picked up on, the defenses they played against him, etc. It is in my humble opinion that this had a huge effect on the field. I didn't realize how big exactly until I looked at the stats.

Between 2000 and 2005 the Patriots played Pennington 5 times. His stats for those games look like this:

91/152, 967 yards, 59.9%, 6.4 YPA, 4 TD, 7 INT, 68.1 rating, TD% 2.6, INT% 4.6

Then I compared that with Pennington's stats against the rest of the league during that same period:

676/1022, 7654 yards, 66.1%, 7.5 YPA, 51 TD, 23 INT, 95.7 rating, TD% 5, INT% 2.2

Statistically the Patriots dominated Pennington. They held him to a whole yard per attempt lower than the rest of the league, and he completed a far lower percentage of his passes. His interception percentage was twice that it was against the rest of the NFL, and his touchdown percentage was cut in half. His passer rating was a whopping 27 points lower than it was against everybody else. Basically they owned him.

Now these are Pennington's stats against the Pats between 2006 and 2007, the years he was in New York with Mangini (4 games):

85/129, 825 yards, 65.9%, 6.4 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT, 90.1 rating, TD% 3.9, INT% 1.6

Now against the rest of the league during the same time frame:

407/616, 4292 yards, 66.1%, 6.7 YPA, 22 TD, 23 INT, 82.5 rating, TD% 3.6, INT% 3.7


Pennington's play dramatically declined on the whole, yet against us they went up! The completion percentages are very similar, and while his YPA is lower than the his league average and the same as it was against us between 2000 and 2005, it is worth mentioning that two of the four games Pennington played against us were in terrible, rainy weather. His YPA in those two games was 5. In the other two games with good weather it was 8.2.

As for the rest, his touchdown percentage improved from pre Mangini by more than one percentage point, and his interception percentage went down by three percentage points despite the fact against the rest of the league those numbers both declined after Mangini became his head coach. And his passer rating was nearly 8 points higher against us despite the fact that this again declined against the rest of the league.

The Patriots defense has remained very solid, and it has been ranked near the top of the league in most categories since Mangini left, so I don't think saying a decline in the Patriots play is a valid reason for this trend.

Something clearly changed that caused Pennington's career to take a 180, both against us and the rest of the league, and my money is on the book that Mangini swiped. I don't believe he broke any rules by doing so, but it seems pretty dishonorable, doesn't it? If it was simply Mangini's knowledge of our defense that was making the difference then Brett Favre would have played better than he did last week. The fact that this only applies to Pennington specifically makes me think there is something to this. Just something to keep in mind has the Pats play him on Sunday.

 

[nowayback]

very interesting read ! i do remember hearing during games how bad chad was against the pats....and then the last few years...thinking he wasnt so bad.

wonder what would have happened if BB had stolen a scouting book ?

anyway ..it was mangina who did so...no prob, everyone does, he didnt really get an advantage....

 

[DarrylS]

Could it be that it is as simple as familiarity the the players tendency and tendencies of the defense.. Pennington was an ok QB, but never really hurt us.. the 6.4 yards per attempt is not all that great, and could have been the short play offense, high completion rate.. quick check of the stats from NFL.COM, indicate that today he would have been 16th in the league in this stat..

Mangini could have stolen the play book, but BB would have known it.. and if he did pretty confident it would change..

 

[Patjew]

I remember in 2002 Pennington came into NE and led the Jets to a pretty solid win over the Pats. I also remember that Pennington and Brady were thought to be on about the same level as "good young promising QBs". It's interesting and fortunate for us how their careers diverged.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The fued between BB abd the RAT, was about the RAT talking to, and offering jobs, to other members of the Patriots staff, behind BB's back.

What if, they go 4-12 WITH BRET FAVRE??? (is he signed past this year????)) what happens to the Mangenous then???

What I would love to see, is how many other HC, give this guy a job, after he gets canned, knowing how hard he stuck the knife in his mentor's back. I think that Plymouth HS might be looking for a coach.

 

[JDSal45]

The "pre-Mangini" stats only include 4 starts. The stats are somewhat skewed by the fact one game he threw 5 picks and no TDs. But he also had a game with 3 TDs and no INTs and a 126.5 QB rating. The other two games are average. His starting record against the Pats for that time was 1-3.

The "post-Mangini" stats I believe you left out the 2006 season wild card game against the Jets the Pats won 37-16. While the stats "look" better, they include a 130.5 rating in a 38-14 loss to open last season. Pennington didn't really play well that game and they racked up some easy completions at the end of the game when the Pats were playing soft with a big lead. His record during this time if you include games he played significantly is 1-4. I really don't see a big difference in performance, overall.

J D Sal

 

[patsox23]

One thing worth keeping in mind is that, while there is some value - a lot even - to having the scouting book, Mangini himself was a defensive coach and then, for one year, the DC in New England when they were playing against Pennington. I'm pretty sure he'd be well able to tell Chad a LOT of "how the Patriots defensed" him.

 

[Raymond]

very interesting read ! i do remember hearing during games how bad chad was against the pats....and then the last few years...thinking he wasnt so bad.

wonder what would have happened if BB had stolen a scouting book ?

anyway ..it was mangina who did so...no prob, everyone does, he didnt really get an advantage....

Nail, head, hammer.

 

[Sicilian]

Our defense may have remained "solid" the past few years, but there's no way you can say it was just as good as it was in 2004, etc. It's entirely possible that:

A) Our defense was incredibly good in those years and has since come back down to Earth.

B) Chad's weapons have improved a bit with the addition of Cotchery.

 

[WeezyFbaby]

i will always have a hate for mangini no respect for the guy he deserves every los he gets

 

[TheBetterFaulk]

Interesting idea but I think JDSal rebuffs the theory. One big game can always make stats on average higher than they should be, and a 1-4 record still means he didn't play well enough to win, it's simple as that. I still am not sold on Mangini as a coach. If he can't do well this year than I don't think he deserves a job in NY.

 

[NEPatriot]

Rat should be sued for stealing 'pats' property. Even with his stolen book, Rat fired Chat because he realized that stolen book didn't do him any good when Pats defeated Jets in the last 3 years.

 

[jcdavey]

man, pennington jets fans must be super pissed right now that they chose favre over chad (not that it was a bad decision, chad was always getting hurt in NY)