The Julio Jones trade, a year later (was: BB & Dimitroff)

[DarrylS]

Re: BB advice to Dimitroff and today's loss

The draft is a crap shoot, getting guys that have played in the league is more of a sure thing for BB, he knows more about what they can do in the NFL. His philosophy is to grab a guy that hes pretty sure can play in the league (ex Wilford, Mayo etc) with his first round picks and/or trade down and acquire more picks an increase your odds of finding someone that can follow his direction and be disciplined.

Add able to accept the coaching and you have exemplified that is so simple, but somehow it becomes way too complicated and beyond the grasp of many.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: BB advice to Dimitroff and today's loss

I'm not sure I totally blame Dimitroff.

Matty Ryan has put up some good numbers but for some reason it seems like he's regressed. If you look at this year, his 3 worst games were vs DET, HOU and GB- teams with good pass rushes.

His performance vs the G-men should not have surprised anyone.

 

[Off The Grid]

Re: BB advice to Dimitroff and today's loss

There is no more frothing, raving Julio Jones fan in the GALAXY than I.

AJ Green is special...and will help you win Fantasy Championships.

Julio Jones...will help you win real Championships.

My write-up, last year:

He commands tremendous Burst, amazing Fluidity, explosive Lateral Agility, and stark, brutal, Strength.

He can flat out FLY, he's tenacious and tough, and a tremendous Navigator.

It is only his inconsistency in hanging onto the ball that keeps him from being the best pure Receiver in this Draft.

That honor goes to AJ Green.

But Julio Jones is the most violent, relentless, and devastating Blocker of any (Top Tier) Wide Out since Hines Ward.

Julio Jones is a Beast on Wheels.

While AJ Green commands a tremendous Game and will doubtlessly get the HighLight Reel Catches, Julio Jones is the guy you want if you're in the business of winning World Championships.

***

Having said all that...

I was instantly SHOCKED at the naked STUPIDITY of that trade, made by a GM whose intelligence I admire.

 

[WhiZa]

Re: BB advice to Dimitroff and today's loss

Would not be surprised if the Falcons enquire about BJGE in the off season.

THey need someone to compliment Turner.

Snelling is a good RB. As we see in the theme of this thread it may be more of the coaching/management then the players execution of the play

 

[JJDChE]

Re: BB advice to Dimitroff and today's loss

Looks like they got a good, potentially great player. It was worth it, IMO.

They have a young core of players there, they have time to address other issues, if they felt like they could get a game changing player they should do it. Jones has looked pretty freaking spectacular since the injuries cleared up, 20-393-6 in his last 4 reg season games.

 

[patchick]

Re: BB advice to Dimitroff and today's loss

I think Dimitroff was dead-on in seeing Jones as a special talent. The question is whether the king's ransom was a smart move.

Let's look at what they gave up:
2011 #26 or 27 (it moved because Baltimore was late getting a pick in)
2011 #59
2011 #124
2012 1st (approx. #25 overall)
2012 4th (approx. #122 overall)
So that's 5 chances -- including 3 in the top 2 rounds -- to pick up other special or useful players.

Or to put it another way, they could have chosen WRs at all 3 of the picks in 2011 and come away with their choice of one from each group (the next 3 receivers taken at each pick, not counting return specialists):
A. Jonathan Baldwin/Torrey Smith/Titus Young
B. Greg Little/Randall Cobb/Austin Pettis
C. Denarius Moore/Jeremy Kerley/Niles Paul
...PLUS first and fourth rounders in 2012.

Or they could have Julio Jones.

It's just way, way too much. (And btw, 8 of those 9 alternate receiver options had >20 receptions as rookies; 4 of them had >600 yards.)

 

[patchick]

This was getting lost on the main board so I thought I'm move it to draft talk to chew over. It's an extreme test of the "get that true impact player" vs. "spread out your risk with multiple picks" philosophies. (My take on it is in the post above.)

 

[Wilfork#75]

While I absolutly love Julio Jones, and was one of his biggest supporters here last year, I do think it was too much to move up. Having said that I can understand why the Falcons did it. They thought they were that 1 player away from winning a championship and after getting the #1 seed in the NFC I can see why. However, they were wrong. That team obviously had more issues than they thought, and in hindsight it obviously would have been better to fill a number of holes then go for the big play. I think thats more of an issue with their self evaluation rather than their evaluation of Jones' value. While they might be out of the playoffs early this year, they do have a hell of a WR for the next decade.

 

[JackBauer]

Forget Jones, perhaps now people will wake up to the fact that Matt Ryan isn't very good.

Oh, and Mike Smith. Very overrated coach.

 

[IndianPat]

According to Cold Hard Football Facts: Wide receivers are nothing more than Shiny Hood Ornaments decorating the engine of NFL teams,

Here’s a five-point summary of the Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law:

ONE – Wide receivers, for all their eye-catching flash and dash, are little more than shiny ornaments on the hood of an NFL offense. Oh, sure, they're nice to have and they look all bright and sexy. But they don't necessarily make the engine run any better – and they rarely if ever make your team any better.

TWO – You should add a flashy wide receiver only when all the other pieces of a great team are in place: a great driver (the quarterback), some sporty tires that provide plenty of traction (the offensive line and ground game), a powerful motor (the defense) and a great transmission (special teams) that allows you to change gears quickly and effectively.

THREE – Even the greatest receivers of all time can make a big impact only when all those pieces are in place, and even then the impact is largely overstated. Even the great Jerry Rice, for example, touched the ball just four to five times per game. So the impact of even the greatest at the position is minimal compared with the impact of a certain position that touches the ball on every offensive snap. And remember, Rice did not make the 49ers a great team. He was drafted by the 18-1 defending Super Bowl champ 49ers in 1985.

FOUR – Quarterbacks make wide receivers; wide receivers do not make quarterbacks. You can have a receiving corps of Rice, Don Hutson, Randy Moss, Homer Jones and the Catawba Claw ... they won't make many game-changing plays if the quarterback can't get them the ball.

FIVE – Drafting wide receivers in the first round is almost always a bad decision; mortgaging your future with five draft picks to make it happen should get any personnel manager or GM fired immediately.

 

[BritPat]

Re: BB advice to Dimitroff and today's loss

blitzfritz...i dont know if youve watched a lot of the falcons games this year, but let me tell you. julio jones is incredible. he had hamstring issues this year, but when he was healthy he was impossible to guard. hes like calvin johnson but without the elite elite ball skills. hes amazing, i think only andre johnson, calvin johnson and larry fitz have the pure athletic playmaking WR skills as julio. whether it was worth it to give all that up is a different story, but julio is insanely good

Totally agree with this. I wasn't a huge fan in College, I actually preferred Baldwin over him, but when he handed Patrick Peterson his ass on a plate against LSU last year, I was converted. And he's terrorised the defenses he's faced this year. He's developed a beautiful little head-fake (White's influence?) and really does just bully defenders. He's Larry Fitz-lite.

I'll be targeting him in every fantasy draft I do next year, certainly.

 

[ay-yo]

If Julio can maximize his physical abilities he's worth the draft picks. Dude has the abilities to get into the Megatron / Andre Johnson / Fitz upper echelon of WR's.

People make the argument that you'd get production from the other 3 picks which will make up for the difference b/t Julio and the player who would have been picked. What isn't mentioned is that those 3 roster spots can be filled with vet FA who will also provide the team with production.

I don't believe teams should trade up frequently but once in a while, especially when you have extra picks every year, isn't a bad thing. No player in this draft makes sense to trade into the top 10 for IMO but I'd trade two 1sts and two 2nds for Suh in a heartbeat, attitude problems and all.

 

[JackBauer]

I'm going to say this wasn't a good trade for the Falcons. Especially considering the facts that 1.) they have an elite WR already; 2.) they have a questionmark at QB; and 3.) they need talent on defense.

 

[Banjo]

Roddy White and Julio Jones are arguably the best pair of WRs in the league. they are set at the WR position for years to come. the problem is I don't think Matt Ryan is good enough to make the Falcons a top passing team. He's not Drew Brees, he's not Cam Newton... he's not even Tim Tebow! Ryan's deep throws are awful

 

[kennyb]

Re: BB advice to Dimitroff and today's loss

I don't know if it's Mike Smith or the OC, but the Falcons play so conservative all the time and then when it's a 4th down, they just keep going for it even when it makes more sense to do the conservative thing and kick a field goal or punt.

Allow me to chime in! I couldn't figure out the 4th and 1s either. 5 guys in the tackle box and they go QB sneak anyway? I mean try something else, anything but what they've exactly prepared for!

Woe is Atlanta, 3 1 and outs I believe. Very sad for them. Hard to take.

 

[patchick]

People make the argument that you'd get production from the other 3 picks which will make up for the difference b/t Julio and the player who would have been picked. What isn't mentioned is that those 3 roster spots can be filled with vet FA who will also provide the team with production.

Well, they spent 5 picks on Jones: 2 firsts, 1 second, 2 fourths. Based on last year's contracts, the 5 would total around $3.5 million a year. Jones alone is getting $4+ million a year. So you net negative $500k to spend on 4 vets for the other slots. Happy shopping!

It's not THE consideration, but it's worth keeping in mind: giving away the value equivalent of more than a full draft class for one highly played player has long-term implications on your team salary structure. Having productive players on cheap rookie contracts is what gives you flexibility in free agency.

 

[ay-yo]

Well, they spent 5 picks on Jones: 2 firsts, 1 second, 2 fourths. Based on last year's contracts, the 5 would total around $3.5 million a year. Jones alone is getting $4+ million a year. So you net negative $500k to spend on 4 vets for the other slots. Happy shopping!

It's not THE consideration, but it's worth keeping in mind: giving away the value equivalent of more than a full draft class for one highly played player has long-term implications on your team salary structure. Having productive players on cheap rookie contracts is what gives you flexibility in free agency.

Any FA WR who came in at 4-5 mil per and gave us 74 ypg and 8 td's per game would make us all extremely happy. Many would say that he out performed his contract. Well 74 and 8 are what Julio put up last year. So isn't that the productive player on a cheap rookie contract you are talking about?

I decided to investigate. I apologize in advance as I don't know how signing bonus effect the cap, but this should paint the general picture. I looked for the top WR's in YPG who weren't on rookie contracts. One :

Player - Total Money / Total Years = Avg - YPG / TDs
Welker - 18 / 5 = 3.6 - 98 / 9
Larry Fitz - 120 / 8 = 15 - 88 / 8
Steve Smith - 38 / 3 = 12.667 - 87 / 7
Colston - 8 / 3 = 2.667 - 82 / 8
Roddy White - 50 / 6 = 8.33 - 81 / 8
Marshall - 50 / 5 = 10 - 76 / 6
Jennings - 27 / 4 = 7.75 - 73 / 9
Malcolm Floyd - 5 / 2 = 2.5 - 73 / 5
Andre Johnson - not enough games so I will exclude
VJAX - 11 / 1 = 11 - 69 / 9
Nate Washington - 27 / 6 = 4.5 - 64 / 7
Boldin - 28 / 4 = 7 - 63 / 3
Wayne - 40 / 6 = 6.667 - 60 / 4 although forehead wan't under C

So after looking up the number's I stand by my position that Jones is exactly the type of cheap, productive, young player you are talking about. If you balance out the bargains (Welker, Colston, Floyd, Washington) with the bad contracts (Santana Moss, Sidney Rice, Holmes, Austin) you're left under with 1 guy under 7, 2 under 8 and 7 more at 8+. Not the most precise study ever done, but I think it's fairly accurate.

So Jones is at 4.05 mil/per freeing up about 4+ million to spend on the remaining 4 spots. Happy shopping indeed.



Few Extras from my Research:

• there were 35 players to avg 60+ ypg
• 4 were TE's: our 2, Graham and Fred Davis
• didn't include Lloyd b/c of an abnormal situation this year
• 35 - 4 TE's - 13 listed - Lloyd = 17 WR's on rookie contracts, or about 50% of the top 35

 

[patchick]

Any FA WR who came in at 4-5 mil per and gave us 74 ypg and 8 td's per game would make us all extremely happy. Many would say that he out performed his contract. Well 74 and 8 are what Julio put up last year. So isn't that the productive player on a cheap rookie contract you are talking about?

Oh, I wasn't suggesting for a moment that Jones was overpaid. I was just pointing out that the team now doesn't have the ability to fill in around him with players on rookie contracts, which has a ripple effect on the whole roster, cap-wise. You had said that they can simply replace the draft picks with vet FAs; I'm saying yes, but for a total price tag of probably $6-8+ million more...which could mean not re-signing another top impact player.

Again, Jones is a terrific talent. If you're going to spend the equivalent of 1.4 drafts' worth of value on a WR, he's an excellent choice. But 2 firsts, a 2nd and two 4ths?

(BTW, for the Jones pick Cleveland essentially got Phil Taylor, Greg Little, a 2012 1st and a 2012 4th. Little, of course, was Julio Jones' top competition for the title of top rookie receiver this year.)

 

[ay-yo]

Oh, I wasn't suggesting for a moment that Jones was overpaid. I was just pointing out that the team now doesn't have the ability to fill in around him with players on rookie contracts, which has a ripple effect on the whole roster, cap-wise. You had said that they can simply replace the draft picks with vet FAs; I'm saying yes, but for a total price tag of probably $6-8+ million more...which could mean not re-signing another top impact player.

I forgot to specify before but I wanted to say that I'd be replacing the 2 / 4 / 4 picks with 3 vet min deals. IMO 3 vet mins will give roughly the same production of a 2 and two 4s. This should only cost you an extra 1-2 million.

That leaves just 1 spot to fill. IMO your 6-8 million is rather high, especially given the savings that Jones brings to your cap situation.

I also believe there's some hidden value in trading up. When you move up you know (or should know anyways) that your getting an impact player. You pencil them in as a contributor at a position. If you draft a player in the 4th, and to a lesser extent the 2nd, you can't rely on them. You should probably sign a vet min guy to that position as well.

(BTW, for the Jones pick Cleveland essentially got Phil Taylor, Greg Little, a 2012 1st and a 2012 4th. Little, of course, was Julio Jones' top competition for the title of top rookie receiver this year.)

I think AJ Green was the best rookie WR.

 

[patchick]

I forgot to specify before but I wanted to say that I'd be replacing the 2 / 4 / 4 picks with 3 vet min deals. IMO 3 vet mins will give roughly the same production of a 2 and two 4s. This should only cost you an extra 1-2 million.

That leaves just 1 spot to fill. IMO your 6-8 million is rather high, especially given the savings that Jones brings to your cap situation.

With pure minimum salary guys -- street FAs -- plus Jones, you'd "only" be paying $3-4 million more a year than for your five original rookies.

But to be clear, you'd be talking about replacing four draft picks, including a 1st rounder and 2nd rounder, with a bunch of Tracy Whites. NOT Andre Carter, NOT Brian Waters, NOT Shaun Ellis, NOT Rob Ninkovich, NOT Chad Ochocinco. Guys like that commanded significantly above minimum, even in this short offseason that depressed FA salaries.

You'd also be talking about a revolving door of players on 1-year contracts, rather than developing guys in your system. (If a FA performs well enough to want him back year after year, you typically have to give him better than minimum by year 2.)

I was assuming at least a couple of moderate signings like the above named players, which IMO is much more realistic.