The Jaguars offense is actually worse than you think

[WaterfallJumper]

Cool research, @BobDigital . Maybe a less controversial way to frame the discussion would be to call this an "efficiency" or "consistency" start. Points are legit either way, but not all offensives can sustain drives. Jags rely on turnovers and big plays for their offense to work at peak efficiency.

What do the Patriots traditionally excel at? Ball security and stopping the big play. Game will be tough, but I think Pats win by double digits in the end.

 

[PatsDeb]

Non-legit points count the same as legit ones.

I have to agree. The only points I would count as "non-legit" are those like the Titan's second TD this past Sunday. Garbage time points earned when the other team is way ahead, they mean nothing to the contest, and the other team is just letting you run out the clock while avoiding injuries themselves. Those points earned when you hear the phrase, "the Pats killed the Titans at 35-14, and it wasn't even that close."

 

[Pats2000]

I had to use some term to differentiate. I don't mean they don't count. I mean they are based on points the D scored, made easy to score or based on mistakes by the opposing defenses (like a 75 yard run for a TD. That is just bad D and won't happen vs the Patriots or most defenses)

Don't say never. I'm thinking of a couple of specific instances, against the Steelers this year, against the Seahawks, against Green Bay, Ravens, etc. The Pats have had their share of Defensive breakdowns that led to long gains and scores.

 

[bormio]

Don't say never. I'm thinking of a couple of specific instances, against the Steelers this year, against the Seahawks, against Green Bay, Ravens, etc. The Pats have had their share of Defensive breakdowns that led to long gains and scores.

The one against the Steelers did not lead to points.

 

[Uptown]

Jaguars' worst matchup
RG A.J. Cann vs. Patriots DT Malcom Brown: “While the Malcolm on the outside will contain Lee, this Malcom in the middle can be a huge force in blowing up the running game at the point of attack. There is a big drop-off from Linder and Omameh to Cann in Jacksonville's interior run-blocking for Fournette.”


Patriots' defensive X-factor
OLB James Harrison: “Harrison got only 27 snaps in his Patriots debut against the Jets, and he logged two sacks and three other tackles. With 30 snaps against the Titans, he produced three tackles, two to slop power back Derrick Henry. He's New England's typical veteran defender who can "do his job" well and doesn't need to be out there much to disrupt Jacksonville's plans with Fournette and Bortles.”


Jaguars' best matchup
WR Allen Hurns vs. Patriots CB Eric Rowe: “When the Jaguars spread the field for Bortles, he needs to avoid forcing it to Westbrook, Lee or Cole. This is a good week to get Hurns going in the slot, given another savvy possession veteran receiver, the Titans' Eric Decker, ripped the Patriots for six catches and 85 yards on seven targets last week.”

“It's been another injury-riddled year for Hurns, but Jacksonville can't hold him back from being a key part of the game plan against the overmatched Rowe.”

AFC championship game: Why Jaguars match up so well with Patriots

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Oh they've been downright terrible throughout long stretches of this season. It's purely related to Bortles. Bortles has been Jekyl and Hyde all season. He was Jekyl from Week 16 through the Wild Card round before suddenly turning into Mr. Hyde in Pittsburgh. NFLN showed a checkdown he made where he went through three different progressions. That's not something that Bortles does when he's in "trash mode".

Like you stated Bortles is erratic. To prepared foe him, our coaches will show film of him while he is at his best. IF he screws up, that will be a bonus and hopefully we score some "illegitimate" points.

 

[Pats2000]

The one against the Steelers did not lead to points.

True, but that was more stupidity on the part of Juju than anything else. Should have secured the ball and rolled in.

 

[sambam94]

how can you throw out their huge plays to say their offense isn't good? That makes no sense, unless I'm missing something.

 

[TommyD4207]

Jaguars' best matchup
WR Allen Hurns vs. Patriots CB Eric Rowe: “When the Jaguars spread the field for Bortles, he needs to avoid forcing it to Westbrook, Lee or Cole. This is a good week to get Hurns going in the slot, given another savvy possession veteran receiver, the Titans' Eric Decker, ripped the Patriots for six catches and 85 yards on seven targets last week.”

Wait...what?

Allen Hurns v. Buffalo - 0 catches, 1 target
Allen Hurns v. Pittsburgh - 1 catch, 12 yards, 2 targets

None, and I mean none of the CBs he was matched up against is better than Eric Rowe. Joe Haden was, once upon a time, but clearly isn't anymore.

Hurns has been quite obviously been running out there with one leg.

If this is the Jaguars best matchup, they're in for a long afternoon.

 

[mosslost]

I am not trying to look past an opponent but I wanted to get an honest view of the kind of offense the Patriots would be up against. Clearly this will be a pretty tough defense for the Patriots to face even if you think their numbers are inflated. So if the offense has trouble the question is how likely is the defense to keep them down to a low enough number to win. I thought it was pretty likely before looking at the Jaguars all that close. Now that I have looked closely I realized I was wrong. This offense is very likely not to be just contained below a certain threshold but COMPLETELY shut down if not given help by bad defense, too many untimely penalties or defensive points/turnovers in short fields.

That sounds like a very disrespectful thing to say about an offense that ranked 5th in PPG at 26.1 and 6th in YPG at 365 YPA and just put up 45 points on the Steelers. Oddly enough though it's actually true.

Here are the numbers. I went game by game and looked at all their scoring drives. Every point they scored. I took out defensive/ST scores, scores caused by short fields and scores caused by huge offensive plays (mostly runs but some passes too) of 40 yards or more. I didn't worry about the beneficial penalties they got. All offenses get those and I am not going to be concerned with how stupid their opponents were.. I am aware all offenses benefit from defensive scores and short fields to a degree but I can't compare every single offense and it is clear the Jaguars benefited a tremendous amount from these. To make up for this I gave them credit for every PAT they missed to add some points they should have gotten. Here is the game by game.

1) Texans - scored 30 and 16 were legit
2) Titans - scored 16 and should've had 17 missed PAT. 14 were with 10 minutes left down 27 though
3) Ravens - scored 44 and 23 were legit - one of their best offensive days.
4) Jets - scored 20 and 10 were legit.
5) Steelers - scored 30 and 9 were legit
6) Rams - scored 17 and 10 were legit.
7) Colts - scored 27 and 20 were legit
8) Bengals - scored 23 and 16 were legit
9) Chargers - scored 20 and 10 were legit
10) Browns -scored 20 and 6 were legit
11) Cards - scored 24 and 10 were legit
12) Colts - scored 30 and 30 were legit (best offensive game of the year for them)
13) Seahawks - scored 30 and 9-16 were legit (I was torn on how to grade this one)
14) Texans - scored 45 and and 21 were legit
15) 49ers - scored 33 and 31 for legit (though 14 of those happened really late against prevent and 1 on a short field due to a successful onside kick. You could argue they did worse)
16) Titans - scored 10 points and and 3 were legit.
p1) Bills - scored 10 point and 10 were legit. Maybe 3 not though... Kinda a short FG drive.
p2) Steelers - 45 points scored and 28 were legit.. Then again you could argue they scored on Pitt early before they realized they had to actually play a football game and the 2 late scores were aided by a tossed up prayer pass for 40-something and a 40 yard short pass that should have only gone for 5 yards or nothing if played better.

Anyway the if you run all the "legit" points you get between 15.5-14.33 PPG offensively. Keep in mind some of those points were against teams that have arguably already given up on the year and some were very late vs prevent. Perhaps you might think their offense preformed poorly cause they faced a hard defensive schedule. Actually it is the opposite. In opposing defensive PPG they faced the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL. They continually faced some of the easiest defenses the NFL had to offer.

The point is this. If the Patriots offense and STs doesn't help the Jags O and the D doesn't give up cheap easy chunk plays (A staple of this D) it is very possible to argue the Jags might be hard pressed to get to double digits.

Jags Defense faced (cumulatively) the 31st ranked Offenses on their schedule this year. Their D is over rated.

Their Offense on the other hand, is attrocious.

Pats 45-10

The only reason we don't get to 45, will be if we have total control somewhere in the 30s and just kill the time or whatever.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

I am expecting a dogfight. They can't afford to fall behind like the squealers did. If we can get off to a nice start it would force them to do things they normally don't do.

 

[mosslost]

Jags Defense faced (cumulatively) the 31st ranked Offenses on their schedule this year. Their D is over rated.

Their Offense on the other hand, is attrocious.

Pats 45-10

The only reason we don't get to 45, will be if we have total control somewhere in the 30s and just kill the time or whatever.

@PatriotsNumero1Fan Do you know football at all?

 

[The Brandon Five]

True, but that was more stupidity on the part of Juju than anything else. Should have secured the ball and rolled in.

That was the tight end, Jesse James, was the next play. Juju got tackled at the 1o yard line.

 

[Kargetina]

Wait...what?

Allen Hurns v. Buffalo - 0 catches, 1 target
Allen Hurns v. Pittsburgh - 1 catch, 12 yards, 2 targets

None, and I mean none of the CBs he was matched up against is better than Eric Rowe. Joe Haden was, once upon a time, but clearly isn't anymore.

Hurns has been quite obviously been running out there with one leg.

If this is the Jaguars best matchup, they're in for a long afternoon.

“Experts” want the Jags to win so badly they will create all kinds of imaginary scenarios hoping to be right.

I honestly don’t remember so many hot takes and irrational “the Pats are better, at home, more experienced, better coached but the Jags will win...they just will.” predictions.

94% of “experts” predicted the Steelers to beat them but only 68% are predicting the Pats and the number is falling with every update.

The absolute worst matchup!!!

The absolute worst matchup would be a Steelers like offense+Denver 2015 defense not a one dimensional team with worse than average offense and a defense that was destroyed by Mariota and Jimmy G.

This same team lost their last two games to the Niners and the Titans even though they were fighting for a bye, barely beat a Bills team with absolutely zero offense but boy after allowing 42 points to the Steelers they are now World beaters and the successors of the 85’ Bears, 2000 Ravens and the 2013 Seahawks.

Every given Sunday yada yada but you can say that about every team without pretending they’re a great team when they’re not even close.

 

[JMC00]

AFC championship game: Why Jaguars match up so well with Patriots

This game isn't about Brady vs. Bortles, but Brady vs. a Jacksonville defense that brings together the best of what Seattle and Denver have had recently. Bortles and Fournette will do just enough against New England's defense to allow their team to shock the world.


What a ****ty piece.


Pats allowing 13.7 ppg over their last 11 games

Jags allowing 18.4 ppg over their last 11 games

Yet it's gonna be Blake Bortles that does just enough.

 

[Kargetina]

This game isn't about Brady vs. Bortles, but Brady vs. a Jacksonville defense that brings together the best of what Seattle and Denver have had recently. Bortles and Fournette will do just enough against New England's defense to allow their team to shock the world.


What a ****ty piece.


Pats allowing 13.7 ppg over their last 11 games

Jags allowing 18.4 ppg over their last 11 games

Yet it's gonna be Blake Bortles that does just enough.

The 42 points we allowed against the Chiefs were the most points allowed in the Belichick era.

This “great” defense has allowed 42 or more points in 2 of their last 4 games.

 

[sambam94]

The 42 points we allowed against the Chiefs were the most points allowed in the Belichick era.

This “great” defense has allowed 42 or more points in 2 of their last 4 games.

yup..getting tired of the Jax elite defense crap...42 freaken posts in 2 of last 4..give me a break. Pats are going to another SB..

 

[bormio]

Comparing Jacksonville to Denver and Seattle is nuts. Maybe Jacksonville one day gets there - they are talented. But those teams had experience too. I think Brady will educate a few Jags DBs on Sunday.

 

[BTTA]

@BobDigital, good thread, thanks. There are many layers to this analysis, as other posters have been pointing out, but that doesn't devalue what you did to get that analysis started.

I would agree that big plays should not be removed from the "legitimate" column as a large portion of them are well earned and part of the plan. There are big plays on offense which are just fortunate mistakes that good athletes take advantage of, but those don't happen often.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Now the Jaguars are the new Ravens!!!
Jaguars are starting to call to mind memories of 2000 Ravens