The inside story of the Patriots’ fall to rock bottom in the Bill Belichick era

[condon84]

Are you Steve or Brian?

Just calling it as I see it.

 

[Real fan 02]

I guess it'll be up to Mayo if he's the guy. Perhaps Mayo likes someone else better? The new GM would have a say, at least you'd think he would.

Gonna be real interesting starting 1/8 at about 1pm

I agree. Things are really amuck there right now. As you perfectly said as of 1/8 going to have our eyes and ears open! I believe the HC is Mayo, GM is Groh, just my inclination. If Bill is "fired " then I believe the organization could promote Mayo without having to interview candidates because Mayo is also an assistant coach as well as CO- defensive coordinator according to Curran.

 

[PatsfanTN]

Wow, it’s as bad as some folks thought it was…even worse. Yikes.

 

[Real fan 02]

Are you Steve or Brian?

It's funny.. no talk of how it's looked without Brady. People tend to really forget that HUGE thing. I will always appreciate Bill and everything he's been to the organization. But the facts remain. The GOAT HC hasn't looked the part without TB12.

 

[n1997y]

Just read the article, its pretty damming at points.. The biggest issue i feel is the coaching staff from the offensive side of things, sounds like O'brien wanted to change the whole staff, and was denied. We all felt needed to be done especially the WR coaching, which sounds horrendous. Does it also feel like Matt Groh has more control in the Front office than we realised?

I can’t read the article, it’s behind a damned paywall.

 

[Steve102]

It's funny.. no talk of how it's looked without Brady. People tend to really forget that HUGE thing. I will always appreciate Bill and everything he's been to the organization. But the facts remain. The GOAT HC hasn't looked the part without TB12.

I think that's because the GM has let the HC down. Certainly on the offensive side of the ball, he's looked every one of his 71 years.

I agree. Things are really amuck there right now. As you perfectly said as of 1/8 going to have our eyes and ears open! I believe the HC is Mayo, GM is Groh, just my inclination. If Bill is "fired " then I believe the organization could promote Mayo without having to interview candidates because Mayo is also an assistant coach as well as CO- defensive coordinator according to Curran.

I think they'll interview anyway. And I think that they'll paint it as a retirement, like when Tom Coughlin was showed the door, and Bill will leak a "fekk that" story to one of his people.

 

[Water Boy]

Why couldn't they have traded up to get a tackle? Didn't they trade down to F with the Jets? Instead of playing cute games in the draft, they should be going after players aggressively at positions of dire need.

I think BB prioritized giving his sons shiney new toys to play with over addressing the most critical team needs.

 

[h0c2000]

The blind homerism is just embarrassing. They're reporters that reported on what they were told. If the situation within the organization wasn't such a disaster there'd be nothing to report on. The "Boo hoo they're out to get us!" crap is either just delusion or denial.

Those homers will tell you they're the better fans. Would they be wrong?

I can’t read the article, it’s behind a damned paywall.

MSN

 

[Real fan 02]

I think that's because the GM has let the HC down. Certainly on the offensive side of the ball, he's looked every one of his 71 years.

I think they'll interview anyway. And I think that they'll paint it as a retirement, like when Tom Coughlin was showed the door, and Bill will leak a "fekk that" story to one of his people.

I can see that. I mean I can also see them interviewing candidates as well. However I hope it's mayo! I don't think there is a staff in the NFL littered with nepotism and lacrosse players like it is in NE.

 

[Water Boy]

you would have thought 2022 would have taught us we needed to get our **** together but of course we just waste another year with more nonsense...

I would have thought BB would have approached this year with far more urgency. He pissed away his chance to catch Shula.

 

[skinnydog]

I don't think anything in this article sounds unbelievable. But you always have to look at the motivation of the leakers and take that into account.

The OL debacle had three legs - bottom of the barrel players, comparatively inexperienced coaches combined with Klemm's illness, and multiple injuries to the tackles and the rest of the line. The OL play absolutely played a part in Mac's implosion this year and also hamstrung what BoB could do.

Who knows about the receiver coaching - that could easily be someone trying to lay the blame on others.

For me, not paying Hopkins was the most puzzling decision of the year. We have oodles of cap space over the next 3 years. We can't know if that was a Kraft or a Belichick call.

The article does highlight a glaring weakness of “the Patriots way” of putting a value on a player or position and then being disciplined and not deviating from your value even if the rest of the league has a different view And Kraft and BB are guilty of this. They reportedly offered Hopkins a contract, but he took more elsewhere. They were willing to resign Jacoby, but only at their price.

It's quite a bit more complex than that. Mason is younger than Thuney, despite being drafted a year earlier, and even the other OL would admit he was the most athletic among them. I can't fault them for giving him that money. [Plus Thuney wasn't eligible for an extension that season anyways.]

The thing is that they could have matched the contract Thuney got from KC, but, for whatever reason, they didn't. I think that they figured Ted Karras could adequately replace him, and they were more or less correct.

But then, for whatever reason, they lowballed Karras in FA, and that led to him going to the Browns and creating the need at LG.

it’s because they always think they can get the same production for less. Tunney Wont take what the Pats offer They move to Karras. Karras won’t take what they want to pay and they move on. Eventually they get to players who aren’t good enough, but the contract value is there so they end up paying for a mediocre player

 

[skinnydog]

I'm not demanding yearly Super Bowl contention. I could die happy as a fan with six ****ing awesome Super Bowl runs, but I'd appreciate a degree of competency occasionally bordering on contention. It's all I ask. If we get more, I'm on board and ready to go. If 8-10 wins with an early-mid round exit in the playoffs is the new norm which we occasionally exceed...I can live with that.



Came here to say exactly this. 100% agreed.

I generally agreed, but with the caveat that this formula at least includes an offense that is entertaining. A team that routinely puts up 20+ points or more.

 

[Steve102]

I can see that. I mean I can also see them interviewing candidates as well. However I hope it's mayo! I don't think there is a staff in the NFL littered with nepotism and lacrosse players like it is in NE.

I am ok with Mayo, but I want to turn over every stone. I want to make sure they have an innovator on offense and they have to follow the best defensive mind in the last 30+ years with someone more than just competent. And they need a GM who can stay ahead of trends and build a staff who doesn't genuflect when he walks by.

Piece of cake, right?

 

[Uptown]

 

[skinnydog]

I don't think anything in this article sounds unbelievable. But you always have to look at the motivation of the leakers and take that into account.

The OL debacle had three legs - bottom of the barrel players, comparatively inexperienced coaches combined with Klemm's illness, and multiple injuries to the tackles and the rest of the line. The OL play absolutely played a part in Mac's implosion this year and also hamstrung what BoB could do.

Who knows about the receiver coaching - that could easily be someone trying to lay the blame on others.

For me, not paying Hopkins was the most puzzling decision of the year. We have oodles of cap space over the next 3 years. We can't know if that was a Kraft or a Belichick call.

This kind of illustrates the problem with “the Patriots way.” That is placing a strict value on a player or position an having the discipline to stick with that. So Hopkins gets a contract offer, but wants more and he goes elsewhere and has a 1000 yard receiving season. The Pats sign JuJu and extend Parker for less $ and get nothing for it. In the end, the Pats wildly overpaid for both and they were the team that ended up wasting money. At tackle they could have signed McGlinchey. Is he overpaid? Yes, but still better than what the Pats threw out there. One of the articles mentioned the Pats didn’t see the value at the tackle position so they end up nor taking any. Well some of those tackles who didn’t have the right value have ended up playing this year and have help up ok. I really like the Gonzalez pick in the draft, but the Steelers moved up to the Pats spot and picked the Georgia LT who has been starting at R tackle and doing well especially in the run game where he is doing very well.

 

[Sect140]

Quite the BB dunk fest in here. Personally, I find the whole thing unfortunate, disturbing, and a bit sad.

All of the following requires a caveat that we do not know for certain the veracity of the article, even if there is likely at least a reasonable degree of truth:

1. BB has overseen increasing and unforgivable dysfunction in the staff dynamics. Whether it is because of his increasing paranoia after so many high-level guys have left over recent years, or paranoia stemming from the various NYFL witch hunts over the years, or something else, the focus on a "circle of trust" rather than a competent coaching staff is a massive failing.

I used to be on the "Keep BB as coach, not as GM" train, then wavered back and forth on whether we should keep him as a coach. I mostly settled on "I have no ****ing idea". If all of this is true, you would probably have to put me on the side of offering him a chance to resign, out of respect for his achievements. I don't see how he can come back from this.

2. That said, if we think sending BB into retirement will help anything in the near term, it's highly unlikely. We will likely lose key pieces of the braintrust that put together a pretty decent defense, and we still have a massive talent issue on offense and special teams. I hope we catch lightning in a bottle and can contend for the playoffs in the next few years, but it is almost as likely that we may wander the desert of disappointment for a decade or more.

It's the price we're paying for unprecedented success, I suppose. I'm personally throwing all expectations out the window at this point.

3. Perhaps, one of the more interesting things to come to mind is that it really feels like people are bursting at the seams to air the dirty laundry inside Foxboro. It's a sign that BB has truly lost his iron grip on that building. We are not even done with the season (officially) and postmortems are coming out, the likes of which we haven't seen since Brady's departure. I would argue these reports exceed the level of candor in the wake of that craziness.

We are likely going to see more and more coming out, especially if BB is gone as HC of the NEP. If nothing else, it'll be fascinating and a little sad to watch. I'm going to rewatch the 2014 playoffs and SB49 this year on Sundays to wash the bad taste out of my mouth. I'm officially becoming one of those guys who lives in the past.

Saturdays nights during the off-season after my wife has gone to bed and still have some cold ones left to finish I rewatch a playoff game from past seasons, one of my favorites is the Ravens 2014 division playoff game.

 

[Real fan 02]

I am ok with Mayo, but I want to turn over every stone. I want to make sure they have an innovator on offense and they have to follow the best defensive mind in the last 30+ years with someone more than just competent. And they need a GM who can stay ahead of trends and build a staff who doesn't genuflect when he walks by.

Piece of cake, right?

I feel that Same way. The reason I want Mayo is because as you perfectly stated need someone innovative on offense I believe mayo would have those guys. Mayo is 37 from what I hear he has alot of friends in the NFL and people he would consider on offense. At DC I believe Demarcus covington could be the guy. Barmore and so many other past patriots have lauded him for helping them evolve as a player. The other factor here is... when Bill is gone the organization will automatically operate in 2020s NFL standards because it will be a HC, GM not the jekyll and hyde we've seen the last 3 seasons.

 

[Steve102]

The article does highlight a glaring weakness of “the Patriots way” of putting a value on a player or position and then being disciplined and not deviating from your value even if the rest of the league has a different view And Kraft and BB are guilty of this. They reportedly offered Hopkins a contract, but he took more elsewhere. They were willing to resign Jacoby, but only at their price.

it’s because they always think they can get the same production for less. Tunney Wont take what the Pats offer They move to Karras. Karras won’t take what they want to pay and they move on. Eventually they get to players who aren’t good enough, but the contract value is there so they end up paying for a mediocre player

I think their system works as long as the player produces at the top % of players in that position. I look at it like this: WR #A is the top of the market and he plays at the top of the position, then the ROI is a wash. He's the #1 guy and has the #1 production, so everything is fine. If they pay a guy 75% of the market and he produces in the top 95%, then that player has a very high value. If a player is paid 50% of the market but only produces 60% of the market production, that player still has better value than say the #2 WR who performs at 80% of the market but is paid at 99% of market for the position. Follow? I feel they don't want to be paying 90-100% of the market when they are almost assured that player will underperform the contract, whereas the guy paid at 50% of the market has a very good chance of being on the right side of production. All this is skewed by Brady's performance, because he was able to raise guys up and get them to a higher % of ROI. I think further that they say that X position has a budget of a certain number, and they aren't going to exceed it, period, doesn't matter what the player is offered elsewhere. It's no different than any other job. The mid level manager gets paid X# of thousand of dollars per year, and that's what that job pays. If the employee performs above expectiation, then the employee can earn more, but the cap will be at a certain level. Once that employee reaches the cap, he/she is either promoted, or let go and someone else is paid less. There's always someone who will do your job for less money, right?

Defensively, Belichick was the best at coaching up DBs, so they knew that if they paid a guy 90% of market, he'd still be a good value because he'd probably be the top performing in the top 5% of DBs anyway, so it'd be a win.

I don't think they look at stats, per se. I think they look at the whole picture, real money ball analysis type stuff, not just fantasy football numbers. I think they analyze everything.

@Ian I would like your opinion on this one.

 

[upstater1]

When the article starts with the sentence that eveyrone spoke in condition of anonymity for fear of retribution its hard to believe how much of it was confirmed.

Just as journalistic practice though, it's ethical and practical to have anonymous sources. It's one level down frm direct sources, which is one level down from direct proof.

But to say something is unconfirmed simply means that of the dozens of people you interviewed, only one (or none) was willing to say it, and no one else vouched for that person.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The article does highlight a glaring weakness of “the Patriots way” of putting a value on a player or position and then being disciplined and not deviating from your value even if the rest of the league has a different view And Kraft and BB are guilty of this. They reportedly offered Hopkins a contract, but he took more elsewhere. They were willing to resign Jacoby, but only at their price.

TBF, it's a question of what you consider the graver "sin": they're not wrong that overpaying players is bad, but obviously not having enough talent is also bad.

By the same token, Belichick's mantra that drafting for need is risky because if you mess up the pick you still have the need and wasted a pick leaves out the "alternative" that if you have a need going into the draft and completely ignore it, then you still have the need and it's now harder to fill.

Hell, we're even talking about the same thing with respect to drafting a QB this year: there are risks no matter what approach the Patriots take to fixing the QB position. It's just a question of what they feel is the risk most worth accepting.