The Dropped Passes

[ivanvamp]

From (http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/):

Here's where the Patriots rank in the NFL in dropped passes:

#2 - Thompkins - 6 drops in 44 targets (13.6%)
#t5 - Dobson - 4 drops in 27 targets (14.8%)
#t11 - Edelman - 3 drops in 50 targets (6.0%)
#t28 - Bolden - 2 drops in 15 targets (13.3%)
Vereen and Amendola each have 1 drop

So we have 4 of the "top" 28 NFL players in dropped passes. Combined, they have 15 drops in 136 targets (11.0%). This is a major, major problem. I am not sure how they fix it, but they'd better, because it's costing them dearly.

 

[Big-T]

Welker has 1 more drop and a worse percentage than Edelman though

3 rookies in the top 10 though (+ 2 2nd year players, one of which started the season suspended), I'd put it down to too much thinking not enough "just" playing, likely a case of trying too hard to not make a mistake which in turn is forcing them to make the mistakes.

 

[Oswlek]

Three of Dobson's happened in his very first start. His hands have been better since then. KT hasn't improved yet, but there is hope since he is a rookie and we've seen how good his hands can be.

I also put some of the blame on Tom for the drops since I've seen several clangers that were thrown way too fast and/or off target.

 

[Deus Irae]

From (http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/):

Here's where the Patriots rank in the NFL in dropped passes:

#2 - Thompkins - 6 drops in 44 targets (13.6%)
#t5 - Dobson - 4 drops in 27 targets (14.8%)
#t11 - Edelman - 3 drops in 50 targets (6.0%)
#t28 - Bolden - 2 drops in 15 targets (13.3%)
Vereen and Amendola each have 1 drop

So we have 4 of the "top" 28 NFL players in dropped passes. Combined, they have 15 drops in 136 targets (11.0%). This is a major, major problem. I am not sure how they fix it, but they'd better, because it's costing them dearly.

I'm pretty sure that these numbers are on the low side, and that there have been more drops than this.

 

[PatsFan2]

If Thomkins keeps it up he should be #1 in no time.

 

[Nunchucks]

IMO, 90% of the Patriots offensive woes can be attributed to drop passes. If the receivers hang onto the ball, the Patriots' offense goes back to being a machine.

The question is if this is fixable within the season? I really do not know. However, I am sure the issue has been identified and the coaches and players are actively working to correct it.

One thing that makes me feel good about their chances is that the players are rookies, maybe as the game slows down and they gain confidence, they will up their catch percentage, that is quite common with first-year players.

 

[Uncle Rico]

I'm trying to find a comprehensive "Catch Rate" (receptions per target) list but so far am coming up with leaders.

NFL Football Player Stats & Stats Leaders - Catch Rate

Only Pats in top 100 are Bolden and Edelman. Denver has 6 players in top 100.

Edit:

OK, did some math via the ESPN site stats.

KT: 18 catches on 43 targets= 41.8%
Dobson: 13 ctatches on 28 targets = 46.4%

 

[ivanvamp]

I'm pretty sure that these numbers are on the low side, and that there have been more drops than this.

My gut reaction was the same as yours, Deus. But it's what I could find.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

If Thomkins keeps it up he should be #1 in no time.

Could be part off the reason he went undrafted. The only clean catches he comes close to making are highlight reel types (ok slight exaggeration)

 

[letekro]

From (http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/):

Here's where the Patriots rank in the NFL in dropped passes:

#2 - Thompkins - 6 drops in 44 targets (13.6%)
#t5 - Dobson - 4 drops in 27 targets (14.8%)
#t11 - Edelman - 3 drops in 50 targets (6.0%)
#t28 - Bolden - 2 drops in 15 targets (13.3%)
Vereen and Amendola each have 1 drop

So we have 4 of the "top" 28 NFL players in dropped passes. Combined, they have 15 drops in 136 targets (11.0%). This is a major, major problem. I am not sure how they fix it, but they'd better, because it's costing them dearly.

The Edelman numbers are 'spishus. 3 drops vs. 37 catches is 11th in the league? I very much doubt that. And how is he higher on the last than Bolden, who has a much higher drop rate???

 

[PatsFan2]

IMO, 90% of the Patriots offensive woes can be attributed to drop passes. If the receivers hang onto the ball, the Patriots' offense goes back to being a machine.

Thats incorrect I wouod say 50/50 the other being Brady's inaccurate passes. He hasn't been Mr Sharp himself either.

 

[Deus Irae]

My gut reaction was the same as yours, Deus. But it's what I could find.

I hear you, and those numbers are on a lot of different sites. I wasn't questioning you, at all. I just think whoever's been scoring 'drops' has been rating pretty generously in favor of our receivers.

 

[Nunchucks]

Thats incorrect I wouod say 50/50 the other being Brady's inaccurate passes. He hasn't been Mr Sharp himself either.

I am basing it on the fact that if the ball is withing a WRs reach, it should be a catch.

 

[Deus Irae]

The Edelman numbers are 'spishus. 3 drops vs. 37 catches is 11th in the league? I very much doubt that. And how is he higher on the last than Bolden, who has a much higher drop rate???

The list is raw numbers, not percentages. Here's a version of it on the NBC site:

http://scores.nbcsports.msnbc.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

 

[ivanvamp]

I hear you, and those numbers are on a lot of different sites. I wasn't questioning you, at all. I just think whoever's been scoring 'drops' has been rating pretty generously in favor of our receivers.

I think it nonetheless demonstrates the point that dropped passes have been a MAJOR problem so far. Which we all knew, of course.

 

[ivanvamp]

The list is raw numbers, not percentages. Here's a version of it on the NBC site:

NBC Sports

This is correct.

 

[olschool]

Thats incorrect I wouod say 50/50 the other being Brady's inaccurate passes. He hasn't been Mr Sharp himself either.

I think he hasn't developed his timing with the new guys yet. They're just out of sync., and quite a few times the rookies have zigged when they should have zagged.

The worst part of the problem is drops / incompletions on third down. I expect that will improve as the season goes on. Growing pains are painful, no way around it.

 

[iapatsfan]

To say this is 90% of the issue is ignoring how bad Brady is playing. His decision making has been terrible, he is consistently staring down his number one option and he has become a QB that is no longer calm under pressure. This year he has developed the Bledsoe patented happy feet whenever a defense rushes more than 4. I hope he can recover the courage under fire he used to have, but if history is any indicator we're in trouble. Once QBs start developing the skittishness that Brady is displaying this season, it's down hill from there.

I have no doubt that if Brady was on a practice field with targets and no rush he could throw as accurately and with nearly as much velocity as he ever has, but when you throw in pass rushers getting anywhere near him he becomes the 1999 version of Drew Bledsoe. How many times in the last two seasons has Brady curled up into the vertical fetal position when he sensed pass rushers were near him only to have to wait a second or two before the rusher actually got there. He used to make those slight slide step adjustments to the left or right that got him a clear throwing window and frustrated the heck out of defenders. Now if you get anyone near him at all, even if there is an open area to slide to, he's done.

 

[ensoul]

This cannot be accurate. I think Dopson alone had at least 6 drops against the Jets.

 

[chasa]

if the ball hits you on the hands and a defender never make contact with the ball, its a drop.

thats my opinion at least.