The Curse of the Highest Scoring Offense

[crew1954]

I guess you didn't have a point then.

Since when do you have to to post here?

 

[patsinthesnow]

The average regular season record of the top 3 Scoring offenses of all time is 15.33-0.66. Another reason people should man up and predict 15-1 or 16-0.

 

[Deus Irae]

I guess you didn't have a point then.

I'd say that I had as much of a point as you had.

 

[BananaRepublican]

Very interesting.

You know that tired sayin' that any team can lose on a given Sunday? That's what is really going on. There are forces at work that don't translate to logic and predictability ruling the day.

Which is why Vegas hedges every proposition that it offers.

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

High octane offense means high fantasy points.
SuperBowls are over rated.
Office bragging rights rule.
Red Zone Red Zone
President Gronk of Gronkzikistan....starring in...A Very Gronk Christmas

I thought is was Count Gronkula from Gronksylvania...?

 

[BradyFTW!]

Past trends are pretty much useless though. The rules have changed over the last 5 years to tip the balance to the offense. I think as we go along, the saying "defense wins championships" is going to become less and less true.

Exactly. This, plus the fact that in any given season the top scoring offense will be, at best, exactly one out of 12 playoff teams. "Any given Sunday" pretty much dictates, from there, that the top scorer won't win often.

 

[BananaRepublican]

The average regular season record of the top 3 Scoring offenses of all time is 15.33-0.66. Another reason people should man up and predict 15-1 or 16-0.

Good point. The odds may be in our favor to see a 15-1 season. That's a weird concept. Equally weird would be that 16-0 would not be so far from the norm. The leap to 16-0 from 15-1 is an act of luck where you show up for your Kryptonite Game but somehow eek out the win. Like the Packers didn't do in KC. Like the Pats did in Baltimore.

Ironically I think the Packers could be an equally blessed team this year.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Let's just look at 2001 to the present, the "Patriot" era. Here are the top scoring offenses and their season results:

2001: St. Louis - 14-2, lost in Super Bowl
2002: Kansas City - 8-8, missed playoffs
2003: Kansas City - 13-3, lost in Divisional round
2004: Indianapolis - 12-4, lost in Divisional round
2005: Seattle - 13-3, lost in Super Bowl
2006: San Diego - 14-2, lost in Divisional round
2007: New England - 16-0, lost in Super Bowl
2008: San Diego - 8-8, lost in Divisional round
2009: New Orleans - 13-3, won Super Bowl
2010: New England - 14-2, lost in Divisional round
2011: Green Bay - 15-1, lost in Divisional round

So only one out of the last 11 top-scoring offenses has won the Super Bowl, and only four of those teams even made the Super Bowl.

I don't think you can win in today's NFL with a lousy offense, but it doesn't appear that you can get away with simply having a dominant offense and very little else.

"only" 4 out of 11 made the Super Bowl. Exactly. And "only" one won it. Those are actually pretty good numbers, considering that you're talking about one team out of 32.

 

[jmt57]

I made this awhile ago, on the left are the rankings by SB winners and on the left are rankings by SB losers, includes by points and yards for defense and offense. For reference....

I highlighted teams that seemed a bit lopsided 1 way or the other. Also 2011 is missing, it was made before the SB.

After all the talk about the Packers' 2011 defense, I had completely forgotten how high their D ranked the previous year - or that their defense was ranked higher than their offense just one year ago. Interesting to see how quickly a defense (or offense) can dramatically change.

 

[Disco Volante]

Another interesting stat, the quarterback who led the NFL in passing yards has never won a SB in that season.

Not that it really means anything, just odd.