The Cliff

[ivanvamp]

Brady's "cliff". Even though they won the Super Bowl, with Brady leading them on another 4th quarter game-winning drive, the critics were vocal. Many were appreciative of Brady's work but at the end of the season and the SB, critics were saying that they won because of the defense and running game, not because of Brady, blah blah blah. The proverbial "cliff". Well I wanted to see how his last six games compared to the other old QBs in the league's last 6 games. For some, this will include playoff action (not for Eli or Big Ben, obviously).

Including playoffs...

Brady's (age 41) last 6 games:
- Personal stats: 147-218 (67.4%), 1608 yds (7.4 y/a), 8 td, 6 int, 89.8 rating
- Team record: 5-1
- Team points per game: 27.2

Brees' (age 40) last 6 games:
- Personal stats: 146-211 (69.2%), 1407 yds (6.7 y/a), 7 td, 5 int, 88.7 rating
- Team record: 4-2
- Team points per game: 20.7

Rodgers' (age 35) last 6 games:
- Personal stats: 134-212 (63.2%), 1369 yds (6.5 y/a), 6 td, 1 int, 89.1 rating
- Team record: 2-4
- Team points per game: 22.3

Roethlisberger's (age 37) last 6 games:
- Personal stats: 181-259 (69.9%), 1927 yds (7.4 y/a), 11 td, 6 int, 95.8 rating
- Team record: 2-4
- Team points per game: 21.5

Rivers' (age 37) last 6 games:
- Personal stats: 129-211 (61.1%), 1381 yds (6.5 y/a), 7 td, 7 int, 77.5 rating
- Team record: 4-2
- Team points per game: 23.2

Eli Manning's (age 38) last 6 games:
- Personal stats: 129-212 (60.9%), 1503 yds (7.1 y/a), 8 td, 5 int, 85.1 rating
- Team record: 2-4
- Team points per game: 25.7


So of this group, Brady finished with the 2nd best rating, the 2nd best Y/A (by a few hundredths to Big Ben), the 2nd most TDs, the 2nd most yards, the 3rd best completion %, the best win-loss record, and the highest number of points scored per game. Oh, and the most championships won, as he knocked off fellow vet Rivers, and then the league MVP in Mahomes, and then the NFC's hot young gun Goff, three teams with records (going into their respective games vs. NE) of 13-4, 13-4, and 15-3 (41-11 combined).

If Brady is going off a cliff, all these other guys have completely flipped off, crashed, and burned. But you don't hear people talk about these other guys in the same way. Except for Eli...people just talk about how he's bad.

 

[SBLIII]

Brady did not experience a dropoff in play compared to the rest of his career.

You simply can't have the same stats when,

1) Gronk drops off SIGNIFICANTLY
2) You lose Brandin Cooks
3) Gordon gets acquired during the season and leaves during the season as well
4) Edelman comes back from ACL, misses first 4 games
5) Michel was not the receiver Lewis was yet, and he also was in and out of the lineup
6) Hogan got worse also

A lot of factors played into declining production.

 

[pctronics0072]

I think that compared to his own standards, he was a bit less other-worldly dominant. He "came back down to earth" so to speak. This could be explained by the description of the above poster in addition to the utter dominance of our run game meaning that when Brady did throw, it was more often when the initial play broke down.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I didn’t notice much dropoff. I think he was banged up at some point. The 2nd hallf of miami, Pittsburgh, and buffalo game - something seemed up with him during this stretch. But from the jets game onwards he did about as good as you can ask.

Add to that the lack of weapons, especially the first 4 weeks without Edelman.

 

[Kato]

Brady did not experience a dropoff in play compared to the rest of his career.

You simply can't have the same stats when,

1) Gronk drops off SIGNIFICANTLY
2) You lose Brandin Cooks
3) Gordon gets acquired during the season and leaves during the season as well
4) Edelman comes back from ACL, misses first 4 games
5) Michel was not the receiver Lewis was yet, and he also was in and out of the lineup
6) Hogan got worse also

A lot of factors played into declining production.

Maybe the Gronk/Hogan drop-offs were due to Brady's decline.

 

[SBLIII]

Maybe the Gronk/Hogan drop-offs were due to Brady's decline.

That's why Gronk retired and Hogan signed 1 year 1.5 million deal.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Tom threw a dart at Matt Damon's window.

That alone indicates there is no cliff.

 

[fair catch fryar]

We all know that no one beats Father Time, but when it comes to Brady, it is apparent that there are a different set of rules because he has already defied the rules the rest of us mortals adhere. At some phucking point, one of these mediots is going to be correct about Brady's demise unless he goes out on top.

 

[203Pat]

Who’s the straw man now?

 

[SBLIII]

We all know that no one beats Father Time, but when it comes to Brady, it is apparent that there are a different set of rules because he has already defied the rules the rest of us mortals adhere. At some phucking point, one of these mediots is going to be correct about Brady's demise unless he goes out on top.

as someone pointed, the cliff usually comes suddenly and you don't drop off just slightly, you completely lose it.

The demise/cliff/decline has not happened yet. It can happen at any time but I wouldn't necessarily expect it this year. My guess is Brady has a very good feeling when it will come and he would have retired on top if he would sense it soon.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I didn’t notice much dropoff. I think he was banged up at some point. The 2nd hallf of miami, Pittsburgh, and buffalo game - something seemed up with him during this stretch. But from the jets game onwards he did about as good as you can ask.

Add to that the lack of weapons, especially the first 4 weeks without Edelman.

Wasn’t he dealing with a knee injury early in the season?

 

[Patriot Missile]

To quote Tom Brady regarding the “cliff.” “Not Today.” Or was was that someone else?

 

[signbabybrady]

 

[RobertWeathers]

Wasn’t he dealing with a knee injury early in the season?

yea the TN game on that dumbass pass play.

If Josh calls that play again I will personally kill him <jk>

 

[RobertWeathers]

To quote Tom Brady regarding the “cliff.” “Not Today.” Or was was that someone else?

I think Billy Crystal said that to Bruno Kirby in City Slickers.

 

[ivanvamp]

You guys do get the point of my OP, right?

 

[203Pat]

yea the TN game on that dumbass pass play.

If Josh calls that play again I will personally kill him <jk>

In recent years have we ran that pass to Brady in a game we actually won? I can think of Philly in the regular season a few years ago, then the Philly Super Bowl as well as the Titans game last year.

 

[RobertWeathers]

as someone pointed, the cliff usually comes suddenly and you don't drop off just slightly, you completely lose it.

The demise/cliff/decline has not happened yet. It can happen at any time but I wouldn't necessarily expect it this year. My guess is Brady has a very good feeling when it will come and he would have retired on top if he would sense it soon.

It's clear as day Tom feels good and is in a good place emotionally.

BB is off his back re: TB12 Method and AG with his whole Orchids of Asia massages he gives Tom..

Hes still playing great.

Hes "motivated" by chasing a new deal, playing into his mid 40s and BB drafting a young pup in the 4th rd just might gets Tom's attention like Jimmy did.

His advertising earning power is better than its ever been.

He has some WR weapons to deal with and more RBs.

The team has a very, very good defense.

All he needs to do is stay healthy.

 

[RobertWeathers]

In recent years have we ran that pass to Brady in a game we actually won? I can think of Philly in the regular season a few years ago, then the Philly Super Bowl as well as the Titans game last year.

MIA @ home in 2001. Thats it and that ain't recent.

 

[Triumph]

The Cliff is usually noticed first with long balls. The zip is not there anymore and the football hangs in the air. With Peyton Manning, towards the end of his first season with the Denver Broncos did I notice a lack of arm strength.. Manning had to throw rainbows to get distance on the ball. My reaction was the "cliff" has arrived, or maybe he has an injury.

Mannings 2nd season if you recall, the Broncos ushered in the 2013 season and Manning opened up throwing 7 TDs vs the Ravens. Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos - September 5th, 2013 | Pro-Football-Reference.com Nothing wrong here right?

No, later in the season vs the Patriots at home Brady and Manning dueled in 22 mph windy conditions. Brady was throwing the ball all over the field. Manning struggled throwing into the wind to the tune of 150 passing yards..Denver Broncos at New England Patriots - November 24th, 2013 | Pro-Football-Reference.com It was obvious that something was wrong.

To me, this NE game was the beginning to end of Peyton Mannings dominance as an NFL QB. Seattle destroyed Manning and the Broncos in the Super Bowl. The game was over in the first quarter.