The AFC 6

[BobDigital]

We don't know the seeding yet but we know the teams. Pitt, KC, Miami, Houston, Oakland and of course the Patriots.

KC offers the most to talk about not only cause we have not played them but they are fairly versitle. Their pass rush is something too be worried about but their ability to stop the run isn't there right now. Denver had success running generally but got away from it being down so much. They are one of the worst run Ds in the NFL. We would need to run on them to slow down their pass rush. They don't have a ton of sacks but Houston and Ford can do dmg. Houston has not been healthy much. If he is for the playoffs look out. They did what a good D should and made Denver look like trash. On offense you need to stop their run game and Kelce. Those 2 things are must haves. Shadow Hill out of the back field (he is their #2 WR) and then don't get beat over the top. Let Alex Smith check down.

Pitt is the other big threat but less interesting to talk about. Take away Bell first and then limit Brown particularly down field. After that the scariest thing is Sammie Coates hitting a home run (20+ YPC ave) on you but they don't have much after their top 2 guys and Coates should not be overly feared. D is the most interesting side of the ball though less fearsome. No one is sure how good they are yet. Baltimore scoring what they did on them is a bit telling though. They are okay but not elite or close to elite. Their pass rush is average if that. Their LBs however are pretty solid i think. DBs are average overall. They play well together but a bit like the Pats and Dallas in the sum is greater than the parts. I think their run D is a bit overrated cause they get up on teams and make them pass. It is not bad just not top 10 i think. Overall not 1 particular weakness to attack but not 1 particular strength.

Miami will be talked about all week so lets cliff notes. Stop Wake/Suh and our O will score on them. Pass on CBs besides Maxwell ideally. They might have the worst LB corps in the NFL btw. On D stop Ajayi and don't let Stills beat you over the top. Limit Landry and they can't do much damage to you.

Houston? Just score. Their O is bad. On D they have good pass rushers but average run D. We should try to attack the outside i think though. They are good up the middle i think. Their DBs i don't know much about but i don't think much of them as of now. If someone tells me different i will believe them i guess but i don't think they are good. On D. Stop Hopkins and stop Miller/Blue. they have a good 2-1 RB punch. After Hopkins Fuller is their next best guy but he has slowed down since his hot start. Too early for him. Maybe next year the young guy will be better. Fiedorowicz can be a bit annoying but not a true game changer at TE

Oakland would have been a tough match up i think. However with a suspect QB this former offensive based team has had it fangs pulled out. Top 3 OL makes an average RB core look good. Obviously the top guys are Cooper/Crabtree. No one else is scary on their O and Matt McGloin is not anything that needs to be worried about. On defense they can't stop the run. One of the worst in the league at it. But they force teams to throw so it is rarely exposed. They have been the last 4 games (a bit less at Indy cause it had more points though but still). Obviously the big name is Mack but Bruce Irvin is there too. They don't get a ton of sacks but they do force the ball out when the do. 20 FF on the season and 14 recovered leads the NFL. I don't think they do much well outside of that though. Defensive passer rating is below average and I don't think their DBs help much. They are not trash I think. Just not good. Also Reily at LB is a often not talked about bright spot.

Thoughts?

 

[Flash]

The only team worth talking about at this point in the AFC is KC. Pittsburgh is what, 2-9 against a Tom Brady led Patriots? Brown and Bell are incredible players but I am confident that Brady will beat Ben in a shootout. Oakland isn't a threat without Carr since their D is full of holes. Houston has QB problems.

Miami is an interesting team to think about given that Gase did a complete 180 after a 1-4 start. Strong D-line as ever, led by Suh and Wake. Jay Ajayi is a monster and Matt Moore isn't a big downgrade from Tannehill. However, we are still playing in Foxborough if Miami wins wild-card. I don't fear the Dolphins if we are home. Our team is also more balanced than the 2010 team that lost to the Jests.

That leaves KC. They have a very good pass rush, and they have an electrifying player in Hill. Alex Smith is a thorough game manager but as long as he avoids tossing INTs KC's defense typically will carry the team to a win. IMO they are easily the team to watch out for in the AFC (other than us) and game against them will not be as easy as last year's game.

With all that being said, we are still heads and shoulders above every AFC team this year. If we don't make the Super Bowl I would be very disappointed, this is one of the weakest AFC in recent memory, which coincides with one of the most talented Patriots teams this past couple of years. The real challenge would come from the NFC side. Dallas, Seattle, Atlanta and NYG are all very capable teams.

 

[anditsgood]

The only team worth talking about at this point in the AFC is KC. Pittsburgh is what, 2-9 against a Tom Brady led Patriots? Brown and Bell are incredible players but I am confident that Brady will beat Ben in a shootout. Oakland isn't a threat without Carr since their D is full of holes. Houston has QB problems.

Miami is an interesting team to think about given that Gase did a complete 180 after a 1-4 start. Strong D-line as ever, led by Suh and Wake. Jay Ajayi is a monster and Matt Moore isn't a big downgrade from Tannehill. However, we are still playing in Foxborough if Miami wins wild-card. I don't fear the Dolphins if we are home. Our team is also more balanced than the 2010 team that lost to the Jests.

That leaves KC. They have a very good pass rush, and they have an electrifying player in Hill. Alex Smith is a thorough game manager but as long as he avoids tossing INTs KC's defense typically will carry the team to a win. IMO they are easily the team to watch out for in the AFC (other than us) and game against them will not be as easy as last year's game.

With all that being said, we are still heads and shoulders above every AFC team this year. If we don't make the Super Bowl I would be very disappointed, this is one of the weakest AFC in recent memory, which coincides with one of the most talented Patriots teams this past couple of years. The real challenge would come from the NFC side. Dallas, Seattle, Atlanta and NYG are all very capable teams.

KC's offense seems to be predicated on Kelce and the RB (hill lately) everything with them is short. The speed of Hill scares me a bit, but i think BB will have a plan of it, if the time comes

 

[PatsBoy12]

I know many will disagree, but I think any team that makes the playoffs is a threat. Any given Sunday can strike at any time, as we all should know painfully . . . and I don't just mean the Giants. With that said, however, PIT has the firepower to make for a very interesting meeting. BB and our staff is leagues ahead of PIT's staff, as is our QB (though that gap is not as wide). Bell is a monster, and he is one of my favorite players to watch. He gives me nightmares when they play NE. The exact same thing can be said about Antonio. In fact, he and Julio (all respect to Jules) are my two favorite receivers to watch play the game (you can throw in A.J. Green too)

KC is very versatile, but I'm generally happy to play any Andy Reid coached team, especially in big games. His clock management and personnel management have always been his Achilles heel and they always will be until he proves otherwise. Limit Kelce and be aware of the gadget/misdirection plays, and that offense becomes pretty pedestrian. Defensively is where things can be interesting because KC has both size and speed. Discipline is something I'm not sure of, though. I haven't watched enough of their games to know how well they use their peices.

The other teams, I believe, would play NE tough for a quarter or a half and then it would be done after the halftime adjustments. Again, any given Sunday is in play, but you'd have to think NE should be able to dispatch them if they bring their A-Game.

 

[oldrover]

Again, any given Sunday is in play, but you'd have to think NE should be able to dispatch them if they bring their A-Game.

Hmmm...

Beat down the Ravens despite handing them 2 free TD's.

Beat down the Broncos despite Brady going 0 for the the first quarter-ish, and having his worst game of the season statistically.

Actually, IMHO, the Patriots can bring their B or B- game and win.

 

[scout]

The thing that drives me crazy is talk of past records or history. It doesn't matter if we kicked Pittsburgh's butt in the past. In other words, our record is still great if we lose to them this year in the playoffs. Harrison said the same thing last night. That KC lost to us last year and therefore are not a threat. They looked damn good last night against a great defense (over 300 yards in the first half). Patriots have a great chance of beating any opponent, but taking them for granted due to history is illogical.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Hmmm...

Beat down the Ravens despite handing them 2 free TD's.

Beat down the Broncos despite Brady going 0 for the the first quarter-ish, and having his worst game of the season statistically.

Actually, IMHO, the Patriots can bring their B or B- game and win.

I hear you, Rover. But DEN made enough of their own mistakes on O that helped NE. A better QB and a few more catches instead of drops and that game is probably much different. But regardless, my post was about the playoff teams, which BAL and DEN are not. But I do know what you're trying to say.

 

[fightingirish595]

Patriots have a better run defense than anyone in the afc . While KC Oakland and Miami are bad against the run, Houston and Pitt are okay. As long as the Pats show up and arent flat, I think they are possibly 2 scores better than anyone in the afc when you consider balance and coaching

 

[Brick27]

I'm not sure about relying on historical results for a one game playoff that happens week-to-week. When has Pittsburgh ever met the Pats in the playoffs with fire power like Brown and Bell? They haven't met in the playoffs since the 2004 season.

 

[Kdo5]

The thing that drives me crazy is talk of past records or history. It doesn't matter if we kicked Pittsburgh's butt in the past. In other words, our record is still great if we lose to them this year in the playoffs. Harrison said the same thing last night. That KC lost to us last year and therefore are not a threat. They looked damn good last night against a great defense (over 300 yards in the first half). Patriots have a great chance of beating any opponent, but taking them for granted due to history is illogical.

I'm just not frightened of the Chiefs in Foxboro. In Arrowhead I'd be a little concerned but not at home. Their HFA is a significant factor I feel like.

 

[NormZauchin]

We don't know the seeding yet but we know the teams. Pitt, KC, Miami, Houston, Oakland and of course the Patriots.

KC offers the most to talk about not only cause we have not played them but they are fairly versitle. Their pass rush is something too be worried about but their ability to stop the run isn't there right now. Denver had success running generally but got away from it being down so much. They are one of the worst run Ds in the NFL. We would need to run on them to slow down their pass rush. They don't have a ton of sacks but Houston and Ford can do dmg. Houston has not been healthy much. If he is for the playoffs look out. They did what a good D should and made Denver look like trash. On offense you need to stop their run game and Kelce. Those 2 things are must haves. Shadow Hill out of the back field (he is their #2 WR) and then don't get beat over the top. Let Alex Smith check down.

Pitt is the other big threat but less interesting to talk about. Take away Bell first and then limit Brown particularly down field. After that the scariest thing is Sammie Coates hitting a home run (20+ YPC ave) on you but they don't have much after their top 2 guys and Coates should not be overly feared. D is the most interesting side of the ball though less fearsome. No one is sure how good they are yet. Baltimore scoring what they did on them is a bit telling though. They are okay but not elite or close to elite. Their pass rush is average if that. Their LBs however are pretty solid i think. DBs are average overall. They play well together but a bit like the Pats and Dallas in the sum is greater than the parts. I think their run D is a bit overrated cause they get up on teams and make them pass. It is not bad just not top 10 i think. Overall not 1 particular weakness to attack but not 1 particular strength.

Miami will be talked about all week so lets cliff notes. Stop Wake/Suh and our O will score on them. Pass on CBs besides Maxwell ideally. They might have the worst LB corps in the NFL btw. On D stop Ajayi and don't let Stills beat you over the top. Limit Landry and they can't do much damage to you.

Houston? Just score. Their O is bad. On D they have good pass rushers but average run D. We should try to attack the outside i think though. They are good up the middle i think. Their DBs i don't know much about but i don't think much of them as of now. If someone tells me different i will believe them i guess but i don't think they are good. On D. Stop Hopkins and stop Miller/Blue. they have a good 2-1 RB punch. After Hopkins Fuller is their next best guy but he has slowed down since his hot start. Too early for him. Maybe next year the young guy will be better. Fiedorowicz can be a bit annoying but not a true game changer at TE

Oakland would have been a tough match up i think. However with a suspect QB this former offensive based team has had it fangs pulled out. Top 3 OL makes an average RB core look good. Obviously the top guys are Cooper/Crabtree. No one else is scary on their O and Matt McGloin is not anything that needs to be worried about. On defense they can't stop the run. One of the worst in the league at it. But they force teams to throw so it is rarely exposed. They have been the last 4 games (a bit less at Indy cause it had more points though but still). Obviously the big name is Mack but Bruce Irvin is there too. They don't get a ton of sacks but they do force the ball out when the do. 20 FF on the season and 14 recovered leads the NFL. I don't think they do much well outside of that though. Defensive passer rating is below average and I don't think their DBs help much. They are not trash I think. Just not good. Also Reily at LB is a often not talked about bright spot.

Thoughts?

How do the special teams on these squads stack up against the Pats? I usually assume that special teams are our hidden advantage.

 

[BobDigital]

How do the special teams on these squads stack up against the Pats? I usually assume that special teams are our hidden advantage.

I can't say for sure honestly. Maybe someone else can help you more there. I am confident though that Gostkowski is 100% out of his funk and is the best kicker

 

[goheels22002]

Somebody bump this thread the week of the divisional round. I could care less who the Patriots play in Foxboro that weekend. Whoever it is will be an underdog, and have a coach who knows the sting Belichick's lash.

Let's beat Miami first and get HFA throughout, and let the other guys worry about the Patriots.

 

[Tony2046]

How do the special teams on these squads stack up against the Pats? I usually assume that special teams are our hidden advantage.

So do I. The Pats have played disguised fronts and coverages over the last month leaving the opposing offense guessing. Special teams have been pinning teams deep which gives the Pats D more opportunities per drive to confuse the opposing offense and hopefully forcing them into a mistake or two during the game.

Further it has been giving the Pats offense decent starting positions a couple of times if not more per game.

So, like you, I think ST is another important key to the Pats success and in a close game it might be the deciding factor.

NE ranks 4th in starting field position and 1st in opponent starting field position.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2016 DEFENSIVE DRIVE STATS

 

[mosslost]

We don't know the seeding yet but we know the teams. Pitt, KC, Miami, Houston, Oakland and of course the Patriots.

KC offers the most to talk about not only cause we have not played them but they are fairly versitle. Their pass rush is something too be worried about but their ability to stop the run isn't there right now. Denver had success running generally but got away from it being down so much. They are one of the worst run Ds in the NFL. We would need to run on them to slow down their pass rush. They don't have a ton of sacks but Houston and Ford can do dmg. Houston has not been healthy much. If he is for the playoffs look out. They did what a good D should and made Denver look like trash. On offense you need to stop their run game and Kelce. Those 2 things are must haves. Shadow Hill out of the back field (he is their #2 WR) and then don't get beat over the top. Let Alex Smith check down.

Pitt is the other big threat but less interesting to talk about. Take away Bell first and then limit Brown particularly down field. After that the scariest thing is Sammie Coates hitting a home run (20+ YPC ave) on you but they don't have much after their top 2 guys and Coates should not be overly feared. D is the most interesting side of the ball though less fearsome. No one is sure how good they are yet. Baltimore scoring what they did on them is a bit telling though. They are okay but not elite or close to elite. Their pass rush is average if that. Their LBs however are pretty solid i think. DBs are average overall. They play well together but a bit like the Pats and Dallas in the sum is greater than the parts. I think their run D is a bit overrated cause they get up on teams and make them pass. It is not bad just not top 10 i think. Overall not 1 particular weakness to attack but not 1 particular strength.

Miami will be talked about all week so lets cliff notes. Stop Wake/Suh and our O will score on them. Pass on CBs besides Maxwell ideally. They might have the worst LB corps in the NFL btw. On D stop Ajayi and don't let Stills beat you over the top. Limit Landry and they can't do much damage to you.

Houston? Just score. Their O is bad. On D they have good pass rushers but average run D. We should try to attack the outside i think though. They are good up the middle i think. Their DBs i don't know much about but i don't think much of them as of now. If someone tells me different i will believe them i guess but i don't think they are good. On D. Stop Hopkins and stop Miller/Blue. they have a good 2-1 RB punch. After Hopkins Fuller is their next best guy but he has slowed down since his hot start. Too early for him. Maybe next year the young guy will be better. Fiedorowicz can be a bit annoying but not a true game changer at TE

Oakland would have been a tough match up i think. However with a suspect QB this former offensive based team has had it fangs pulled out. Top 3 OL makes an average RB core look good. Obviously the top guys are Cooper/Crabtree. No one else is scary on their O and Matt McGloin is not anything that needs to be worried about. On defense they can't stop the run. One of the worst in the league at it. But they force teams to throw so it is rarely exposed. They have been the last 4 games (a bit less at Indy cause it had more points though but still). Obviously the big name is Mack but Bruce Irvin is there too. They don't get a ton of sacks but they do force the ball out when the do. 20 FF on the season and 14 recovered leads the NFL. I don't think they do much well outside of that though. Defensive passer rating is below average and I don't think their DBs help much. They are not trash I think. Just not good. Also Reily at LB is a often not talked about bright spot.

Thoughts?

2010 proved to me anything can happen. Anything at all.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

We have to stay focused on Miami!

On offense we should be able to run the ball on them and our crossing patterns should be open all day, I think we take some deep seam shots with hogan and Mitchell, but I think Miami will be all over them.

On defense, we have to stop the run and force Miami to throw. Lots of turnover opportunities if we do that. Hightower and Roberts need to have a great games.

If we do not turn th ball over, we should win.

Ps: most important - no injuries!

 

[supafly]

KC's offense seems to be predicated on Kelce and the RB (hill lately) everything with them is short. The speed of Hill scares me a bit, but i think BB will have a plan of it, if the time comes

Hill's speed seems to be opening things up for other opportunities at the skill positions, so they would probably counter our move with more underneath stuff (if that's actually possible).

Either way, even with the bracketing schemes being used on Kelce, and the safety rolled over with Hill, both are still making big plays--even against an extra defender.

 

[JayNM]

How do the special teams on these squads stack up against the Pats? I usually assume that special teams are our hidden advantage.

The Chiefs has a crazy good ST. Gase has improved the Dolphins ST too. Oakland is merely good.

Texans has awful ST and Pittsurbg is average.

 

[supafly]

I'm not sure about relying on historical results for a one game playoff that happens week-to-week. When has Pittsburgh ever met the Pats in the playoffs with fire power like Brown and Bell? They haven't met in the playoffs since the 2004 season.

Agreed, and as of the NE game against them in Oct, the trio of Roethlisberger-Bell-Brown had only appeared in 5/24 past games together. They are a much better team when those players are healthy, as they've shown down the stretch.

Just to give you a sneak peek at the perspective of the average Steeler fan, here is their path to the SB as it currently stands:

--take the next week off as a bye, then prepare for what's likely going to be a Tannehill-less team in Miami. Oh, and it's at Heinz Field.

--go out to Oakland and play a Carr-less Raiders team without a QB.

--play their one true test against the Patriots, and let the chips fall where they may.

Pointing out the obvious flaws in the Steelers is fine, but their chances of getting through the postseason is real.

 

[deroc5050]

In all my years as a Pats fan, I feel the most confident this year that they are at least going to the Super Bowl. Enough said.