The 49ers, the NFL's new juggernaut?

[signbabybrady]

You all sound real silly saying San Fran isnt a juggernaut. They ARE the powerhouse in the NFL right now. Really good at running the ball, another year of Kap, getting Manningham back to go with Crabtree. Their front 7? stop its easily the best in football. Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are the 2 best ILB in the NFL today. Aldon Smith had 20 sacks last season, they are here to stay for a long time.

Maybe we need to define Juggernaut better but I dont think anyone is arguing with what you said other than that you need much more than that to be a juggernaut. When I think of Juggernaut I think of Xmen and the unstoppable force that would run anything and everything down in its path. When taking this to sports I think I can back slightly off everything I think you can reach this level without having been undefeated for several seasons but you need to way more dominant than the 9ers and just a team on the rise with alot of draft picks.

I think we would also need to define powerhouse too but I think they are definitely one of the few power players in the league right now and given what is on their roster and the draft picks they have this year it is not crazy to think they could win a title in the next few years possibly next year.

But lets just for argument sake say they win the SB next year I still feel like losing the NFC championship, Losing the SB, and then Getting over the hump and winning it all still would not qualify them as a Juggernaut. There have been 3 teams to win multiple SBs over the last 10 or 11 years and I would only qualify one of those teams as a juggernaut. You could certainly argue for the other two especially the Steelers but to me even they were still a little short.

Again I think they need to win a SB before they can even start talking about that and even then they would need something more special than that to put them over the top as a juggernaut.

 

[chasa]

considering all the high draft picks they had for a long stretch its not a surprise.

now that they are picking down in the patriots area of the draft their talent should plateu a bit and it becomes more about sustaining and injecting some youth more so then climbing that mountain and rebuilding.

 

[BradyManny]

Saying that the 49ers are the powerhouse in the NFL runs counter to the data. The data tells us that there are at least 3 teams at the top, not just the 49ers.

Honestly, I'm not even convinced they'll be the best team in their division next year. That Seahawks team is scary.

 

[ivanvamp]

Maybe we need to define Juggernaut better but I dont think anyone is arguing with what you said other than that you need much more than that to be a juggernaut. When I think of Juggernaut I think of Xmen and the unstoppable force that would run anything and everything down in its path. When taking this to sports I think I can back slightly off everything I think you can reach this level without having been undefeated for several seasons but you need to way more dominant than the 9ers and just a team on the rise with alot of draft picks.

I think we would also need to define powerhouse too but I think they are definitely one of the few power players in the league right now and given what is on their roster and the draft picks they have this year it is not crazy to think they could win a title in the next few years possibly next year.

But lets just for argument sake say they win the SB next year I still feel like losing the NFC championship, Losing the SB, and then Getting over the hump and winning it all still would not qualify them as a Juggernaut. There have been 3 teams to win multiple SBs over the last 10 or 11 years and I would only qualify one of those teams as a juggernaut. You could certainly argue for the other two especially the Steelers but to me even they were still a little short.

Again I think they need to win a SB before they can even start talking about that and even then they would need something more special than that to put them over the top as a juggernaut.

I guess I would suggest not worrying too much about the exact definition of the term "juggernaut" and think bigger picture here. Is this team already an elite NFL team? Yes. I can't imagine any legit argument against that. They're loaded and they have a ridiculous amount of draft picks to use or trade up or trade for current players.

It is true that they were very fortunate this past year in the injury department, and that can sink any team. But in terms of actual talent, this team is stacked.

 

[jmt57]

One minor point: I would hesitate to assume that the 49ers are receiving a 3rd round compensatory pick, or three total compensatory picks.

The 49ers did lose guard Adam Snyder, but I think that will turn into a later pick - if any pick at all. They also lost Josh Morgan, Blake Costanzo and Madieu Williams, but that should be offset by the addition of other players such as Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, and Ahmad Bradshaw. Costanzo and Williams were signed to relatively low contracts (2 yrs, $1.8 mm and 1 yr, $890k), so they're not going to count for much.

 

[Ring 6]

They have an excellent front office. They have an excellent head coach. They have a very good, deep roster filled with pro-bowl caliber players. They have one of the best defenses in the league and one of the brightest young stars at QB. They just traded away an extraneous piece to clear 8+ million in cap space and pick up another draft pick, giving them 15 picks this year, 5 in the first 90.

49ers 2013 picks
1. First round: Own pick
2. Second round: from Kansas City in Alex Smith trade
3. Second round: Own pick
4. Third round: Own pick
5. Third round: From Carolina in trade-back during 2012 draft
6. Third round: Likely compensatory selection
7. Fourth round: Own pick
8. Fifth round: Own pick
9. Fifth round: From Indianapolis in trade-back during 2012 draft
10. Sixth round: Own pick
11. Sixth round: From Miami in trade-back during 2012 draft
12. Seventh round: Own pick
13. Seventh round: From Cincinnati for Taylor Mays
14. Seventh round: Likely compensatory selection
15. Seventh round: Likely compensatory selection

They don't have a lot of room for rookies, meaning they'll likely trade some picks for future picks (a la Belichick), or to trade up to get superior players in this draft.

But there's one other thought: they need a shutdown corner. The Jets have one in Darrelle Revis. The Jets also have a lot of holes. What if the 49ers traded the 2nd rounder they got from KC, and two third rounders, and a fourth rounder, for Revis (or something along those lines)? Then they trade their second, third, and a fifth to move into the first round again, giving them two first rounders plus Revis, and still leaving them with a fifth rounder, two sixth rounders, and four seventh rounders to pick up camp filler, a better kicker, and/or trade for picks in 2014?

The best team in the NFC would add a stud CB and two first round picks, have plenty of ammo left over to fill in the holes, and even be able to move some currency forward for next year.

I mean, holy smokes they could be frighteningly good.

Lets see Kaepernik in more than 10 games and see what happens when old man Gore slows down, and what they do at the WR position before annointing them. LOTS of teams get to the level they reached this year, seem like the team of the future and go in the other direction.

 

[BradyManny]

One minor point: I would hesitate to assume that the 49ers are receiving a 3rd round compensatory pick, or three total compensatory picks.

The 49ers did lose guard Adam Snyder, but I think that will turn into a later pick - if any pick at all. They also lost Josh Morgan, Blake Costanzo and Madieu Williams, but that should be offset by the addition of other players such as Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, and Ahmad Bradshaw. Costanzo and Williams were signed to relatively low contracts (2 yrs, $1.8 mm and 1 yr, $890k), so they're not going to count for much.

I believe the OP is basing it off of:

2013 NFL Compensatory Pick Projections – Blogging the bEast

Which is a guy doing his best AdamJT13 impression, though I'm not sure how well he did. I'm not sure why Moss would not factor in, he was a UFA. A 4th for Josh Morgan's contract also seems high.

So I would say these projections seem inaccurate.

 

[BradyManny]

Lets see Kaepernik in more than 10 games and see what happens when old man Gore slows down, and what they do at the WR position before annointing them. LOTS of teams get to the level they reached this year, seem like the team of the future and go in the other direction.

Let's also not forget they basically got nothing out of their 2012 draft so far, and it doesn't seem promising.

 

[Miguel]

Randy Moss does not count since he did not play for a team in 2011. Josh Morgan got a deal that averages $5.75 million.

 

[signbabybrady]

I guess I would suggest not worrying too much about the exact definition of the term "juggernaut" and think bigger picture here. Is this team already an elite NFL team? Yes. I can't imagine any legit argument against that. They're loaded and they have a ridiculous amount of draft picks to use or trade up or trade for current players.

It is true that they were very fortunate this past year in the injury department, and that can sink any team. But in terms of actual talent, this team is stacked.

Again no one will argue that the 49ers are a stacked team but I think there are 4-5 teams that could be considered stacked. Ignore the exact definition? you were the one who used the term and even sans an exact definition I think it is a lot more than what you describe above. I think juggernaut is a term that should be left for the dynasties of this league.

 

[eom]

change title to 'top 5 team in nfc' and I'm totally on board.

 

[mgteich]

Welcome back.

Randy Moss does not count since he did not play for a team in 2011. Josh Morgan got a deal that averages $5.75 million.

 

[BradyManny]

Randy Moss does not count since he did not play for a team in 2011. Josh Morgan got a deal that averages $5.75 million.

Thanks for the clarification on Moss - and welcome back.

Do you agree then with the projections?

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

They're on the short list of true Lombardi contenders, for sure. Harbaugh has a lot to do with that. The job he did with Alex Smith in '11, then with Kaep in '12 and how he modified the offenses for each of them to maximize their effectiveness speaks volumes of how he can get the most out of the talent.

Speaking of that talent, the OL is one of the best if not the best in the game and Vernon Davis is the best receiving/blocking TE west of Foxboro. Crabtree became a top-notch WR with Kaep throwing to him. At his age, Gore may fall off a cliff production-wise anytime now, but LaMichael James looks ready to develop into a legit replacement, especially with the FB they have blocking for him. Another WR or two and with Harbaugh's excellent scheming to talent, they'll give any D a rough time.

On D, the pass rush does seem very dependent on Justin Smith opening up the stunt opportunities for Aldon Smith, but otherwise it is amongst the NFL's best. Even without J.Smith, nobody is running on them, especially with other huge DL-men and that LB corps. As for the pass rush, the 49ers keep a leash on their LBs for the most part and it would be interesting to see them take that leash off, letting Brooks and Willis in particular take more shots at the QB. Their "weakness" if you want to call it that is in their secondary, but with the offense-friendly rules and the league-wide increase in percentage of snaps from shotgun/spread offenses, having enough competent DBs to handle these packages is a problem every team faces. On the balance, all but one or two teams would switch defensive talent with them in a heartbeat.

Perhaps the biggest questionmark going forward regarding their staying power is Kaepernick's sustained performance. I think he's the real deal and game film will not catch up with him. He throws a very good deep out...the defining pass IMO of a QBs long term viability...and his deep ball is very good (the big reason Harbaugh stuck with him even after Smith was healthy...and Smith wasn't playing bad prior to injury...Kaep stretched the D in a way Smith couldn't, both horizontally and vertically). Even if he takes a few too many shots that limit his running, I think he can be effective with most of his time behind the LOS. He'll still be moving around back there, buying time for receivers to get open, just picking his spots more to take off. With Harbaugh's track record of successful modifications, I expect Kaep will be put in good situations to succeed no matter what other teams will have seen on film.

This team isn't going away anytime soon, IMO.

Regards,
Chris

 

[mgteich]

I agree.

The key is whether the quarterbacks in SF and SEA continue to perform at a high level.

However, many think the same can be said for the falcons, seahawks, packers, saints and the giants. That's six teams that are likely to be in the playoffs each year. Of course, each year one or two might fail to get in the playoffs.

J
This team isn't going away anytime soon, IMO.

 

[Deus Irae]

Randy Moss does not count since he did not play for a team in 2011. Josh Morgan got a deal that averages $5.75 million.

Welcome back. You've been missed.



Did you bring cookies?

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

I agree.

The key is whether the quarterbacks in SF and SEA continue to perform at a high level.

However, many think the same can be said for the falcons, seahawks, packers, saints and the giants. That's six teams that are likely to be in the playoffs each year. Of course, each year one or two might fail to get in the playoffs.

The '12 Falcons impressed me as they finally opened up their D under Nolan. It will be interesting how Ryan does without security blanket Gonzalez catching passes and if the RBs behind Turner finally decide to step up and take charge despite not having done so when opportunities presented themselves.

I need to watch more of Seattle's Wilson. From what I saw of him, he's either the mad bomber or a scrambler...nothing in between, but maybe that changed towards the end of the year. If he's still what I remember, then he'll be figured out very quickly. Plus, I don't trust Pete Carroll to make the in-game adjustments needed in a tight playoff contest. Still, that D...whoa!

Packers and Saints have significant flaws talent-wise (Packers on OL and DB, Saints on D in general) to be considered in the 49ers class of contenders. They need their offenses to be perfect as I don't see their D saving them in a playoff game or two.

I don't know what to make of the Giants. I think they need a shrink.

Regards,
Chris

 

[Miguel]

Thanks for the clarification on Moss - and welcome back.

Do you agree then with the projections?

They and his caveats looked right to me

 

[JoeSixPat]

All due respect to the 49ers, but being a great team on paper/in theory and in reality are two different things

You need a lot of luck during the season - players performing to their abilities - avoiding injuries to key players, competition suffering injuries or not...

The 15 draft picks re impressive - but they won't draft 15 guys. Some will be stockpiled into future years, and they'll use some as ammunition to move up or foster trades - any of those guys could be busts... The Patriots have a long list of such players, as do every team

There's just too many variables. Thats the reality of the NFL

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

They won't keep all those picks..they will package some for next year like the pats do