The 2008 Patriots...

[patsfaninpa]

Re: The 2008 Patriots... - OFFENSE

OFFENSE - at least as good!!!!
The only issue is re-signing Moss

QB even
We should add a #3 or, even better, a #2

RB improved
Maroney should continue to improve
Morris should contribute more
We should bring in someone as an upgrade to Eckel, even a jag

WR down a little
We need to re-sign Moss
Stallworth should be more involved
Welker is Welker
Jackson should be more involved (or Gaffney could be re-signed)
Washington or a ST/WR replacment could be more involved
it seems best to keep six and re-sign Gaffney

TE improved
we have to have better health at TE

OL a bit improved
We have a great OL that gets better each year, with more experience
===================================================

I think we keep R.Moss. Grass isn't always greener. Money/team wise. New England is the best fit for him provided the money is close. I'm sure Mr. Kraft will step up here. I think we will lose J.Gaffney unless we release. Stallworth. Don't see how we can have enough cap room and keep both. Combination of C.Jackson/D.Thomas will have to replace the one whom leaves. Critical off-season of conditioning and integrating themselves into the offense for Jackson and Thomas. They have talent. But, have yet to produce. Stallworth
already signed so let's assume he stays. Will be damn near impossible for any rookie to break our off. lineup. Greatest offense in NFL history has 23 of the top 25 signed for next year. Everyone except Moss and J.Gaffney. Keep Moss and hopefully Chad Jackson matures enough to replace Gaffney.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I have no problem with Stallworth leaving. Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Jackson is a damn good WR corp. That assumes, of course, that Moss resigns, which I assume he will, at a somewhat reasonable price (but still a substantial pay raise). I'm thinking $6-7M. If Washington is willing to be paid like a 6th WR, then great; otherwise, a mid-round rookie can do what he did for the Pats this year. I also think that we're going to see some major progress with Maroney over this offseason, as he gets in all the conditioning that he wasn't able to do last year.

I think Asante leaves, and I'm okay with that. Very good player, not worth $8M. He does get a lot of interceptions, but there is a flipside to that, which we saw in the Giants game. I'm fine with Hobbs and Gay as starting CBs, plus whoever they draft for depth (and Belichick is adept at scheming for young CBs, so I have no problem with our nickel back being a rookie).

I expect to see a lot of progress from Meriweather over the offseason, to really compliment Harrison and Sanders. Which means that Wilson is gone, unless he agrees to sign for little.

I think Colvin is gone, which I'm also okay with. As long as we go and sign a Karlos Dansby, we're set, and if not I guess it becomes time to see what Alexander and Woods are made of. I am also assuming, here, that 1 of our LBs retires this offseason (probably Seau, if he gets his ring).

I think a lot of people on this board fear relying on youth, and understandably so. I would counter, however, that *some* youth is good in a starting lineup, and those are the guys who become our defensive core 2-3 years down the line. It wasn't that long ago that Warren, Wilfork, Samuel, Gay, Hobbs, etc. were young guys getting experience and learning on the job. In fact, as far as Belichick is concerned, it seems that the only place where he views experience as an outright necessity on D is LB. Toward that end, I think we'll see a FA signing, and I think that Woods/Alexander might be more talented than we have been given a chance to see.

So, to answer the original question: no, I don't think the 2008 Pats will be better than 2007. They will improve in some key areas (the RB situation will pretty much certainly be better, just given healing and natural progression), likely regress a bit in some (I'm assuming that the secondary will take a step backwards), and stay about the same in others (Brady, D-Line, WRs will be about as good with or without Stallworth).

By the time it's all said and done, I doubt they'll be better, but I'd be okay with them being almost as good and younger.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: The 2008 Patriots... - OFFENSE

I think we keep R.Moss. Grass isn't always greener. Money/team wise. New England is the best fit for him provided the money is close. I'm sure Mr. Kraft will step up here. I think we will lose J.Gaffney unless we release. Stallworth. Don't see how we can have enough cap room and keep both. Combination of C.Jackson/D.Thomas will have to replace the one whom leaves. Critical off-season of conditioning and integrating themselves into the offense for Jackson and Thomas. They have talent. But, have yet to produce. Stallworth
already signed so let's assume he stays. Will be damn near impossible for any rookie to break our off. lineup. Greatest offense in NFL history has 23 of the top 25 signed for next year. Everyone except Moss and J.Gaffney. Keep Moss and hopefully Chad Jackson matures enough to replace Gaffney.

Sure, Stallworth is technically signed, but his cap figure pretty much guarantees that he won't be paid that amount. He'll have to either renegotiate or be released. Either way, he'll command more than Gaffney, who has a skillset that is more of a commodity to the Pats (great hands, precise route runner vs. speed and making guys miss). In an ideal world, Jackson will be able to step in and do a lot of what Stallworth does now for a lot less money. Who in the pipeline replaces Gaffney's skills?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: The 2008 Patriots... - OFFENSE

Sure, Stallworth is technically signed, but his cap figure pretty much guarantees that he won't be paid that amount. He'll have to either renegotiate or be released. Either way, he'll command more than Gaffney, who has a skillset that is more of a commodity to the Pats (great hands, precise route runner vs. speed and making guys miss). In an ideal world, Jackson will be able to step in and do a lot of what Stallworth does now for a lot less money. Who in the pipeline replaces Gaffney's skills?

Without renegotiating his deal the team can convert his roster bonuses to signing bonus and cut Stallworth's 2008 cap hit nearly in half. $9.6M in "signing bonus" is not a lot of money for a 26 year old WR who has his skill set, has remained healthy and has shown previously that absent a Moss he is a legit #1 on a roster. Stallworth represents Moss insurance even if Moss is re-signed. Moss is 31 next month. Gaffney and Jackson can't be projected to be that player. Football is almost never played in an ideal world. I hope Jab wants to stay, but if his salary requirement any more than doubles he might be in a Caldwell situation - just too expensive for the slot he'd fill and not quite talented enough to entrust the #2 WR position to. To operate this offense efficiently, including allowing for injuries, that player is going to have to be a #1b - just in case #1a strains his hammy or the pro bowl caliber slot WR is lost for a time.

The 2007 roster was something of an experiment. It succeeded expectations. The 2008 roster will likely be a philosophical shift based on the success of that experiment. The more established talent you give this QB the less you have to lean on your defense.

Unless his injury required amputation, Colvin is not gone. A team that struggles to locate sufficiently savvy personnel to play the cornerstone position in this defensive system is not cutting a 30 year old OLB they like so much they carried him through rehab for a couple of years. He is due for an extension that will also cut his already accoutned for cap in half. Corners on the other hand have to be affordable or we get them where we always have, the draft, mid level FA or if we must off the steet.

 

[solman]

I want to pose a question. Could the 2008 edition of the Patriots be even stronger than the 2007 edition?

No.

But they should still be leading Superbowl contenders.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

No.

But they should still be leading Superbowl contenders.

Not sure how you can say that. If we draft a corner to replace Asante, re-sign Gay, if young players progress, if we pick up a couple of mid level veteran FA who many of us will assume are just fodder, we get Morris back, maybe draft a young stud RT, get Colvin back, get Lua and Thomas back. Seymour gets a year past his injuries...it's not at all out of the realm of possibility. This offense has only had a season together. And it's been a system learning season for AD.

 

[NE_PATS_FAN_54]

I want to pose a question. Could the 2008 edition of the Patriots be even stronger than the 2007 edition? What would it take to do so?

On examination it does NOT require an impossible off season or heavily mortgaging the future to have that happen.

The Pats will enter the Off season with about $12 million in CAP room, per Miguel. They have four picks in the draft in rounds one through three. They might suffer the retirement of either Tedy or Junior, but not both if BB desires. They have three players with very high CAP contracts who may need to renegotiate, as well as a couple of very important Free Agents to sign.

They would need to find about $5-6 million dollars to resign Moss and Asante over what they spent in 2007. Doable certainly. ($ 1.5 more for Asante and $4 more for Moss.) Could they rengotiate the three high Cap hits for Donte, Rosey and Kelly? Kelley and Rosey would seem to be easy renegotiations.

Colvin's contract is up after 2008, and could be extended. Kelley's renegotiated to reflect reality as the sixth WR on a six man rotation. Only Donte contract seems to be a stumbling block but money is there, if reason prevails. Or maybe it time to promote CJ and let Donte go.

What could the Patriots add in the Draft? Laurinaitis/Ghoulson and a second round CB and a RB and a OT as four prime picks. What might the pickups be in Free Agency?

How about a Karlos Dansby for $5 million and and for chuckles, Jason Taylor at a ring-seeking induced $2.5 million in new money? That would give a ILB crew of say Tedy, AD, Karlos, and Lauranitis inside; and a Vrabel, Colvin, Taylor and Woods outside, with flexibilty to swing players as well. The CBs would be same but four deep, and the Safeties the same five deep playable participants.

The oldsters could be platooned to allow them to rest, pace and tutor. (Tedy and Rodney and Jason) The DL remains the same as this year but with a healthy Seymour all year and Mike Wright back.

The Offense would be the same with another RB taking Eckle's job, Dave Thomas back at third TE, and maybe Donte gone, but not necessarily. Add a veteran backup QB, if you want, and the job is done.

All can be done for about $20 million or so, and NO MORTGAGE for the Future and that is what the Pats will likely have after the renegotiations.

Woud you be satisfied that such a Club might be even stronger than the 2007 edition?

ENJOY THIS SEASON FIRST. this may very well never happen again in the HISTORY of the NFL. or at the very least in our generation. quit worrying about what NEXT years roster will be, AND ENJOY THE MOMENT.

 

[Miguel]

I need to do a better job of explaining that my future numbers are of today. If nothing changes between now and the start of free agency, the Patriots will indeed up around $12 million under the announced cap of $116,134,000. But things will change between now and the advent of free agency.

1.) The Patriots will sign their PS players to 2008 contracts.
2.) The Patriots will tender their ERFAs and RFAs offers.
3.) Players will have reached escalators.
4.) The LTBE/NTLBE incentive calculation will take place determining the Patriots' 2008 adjusted cap number.
5.) Option Bonuses will either be picked or not.
6.) A player may get tagged (transition or Franchise)
7.) Players may retire

I added more info to my page that will hopefully make this point clearer.
http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html