Just curious where you get the "Williams ranks in the top 10 of historical prospects which equates to an 80% chance..." Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be angry if he went to the Pats, but I just wonder about this whole "generational" (not your words but just in gerenal) business.
2 days ago, his replacement Miller Moss in the USC Holiday Bowl against #16 Louisville won 42-28 throwing 23-33 (69.7%) for 372yds, 6TDs and 1INT. Caleb against top 25 teams in the last 2 years had a record of 2-7 (0-4 in 2023), throwing for 68.5% 330yds 2.3TD 0.7INT per game over the last 2 years.
I didn't even mind the crying in his Mama's lap within the context. Losing to UW but going 27 for 35 for 312yds and 3TDs 0INTs in his final game... Yeah not a good look, but it's not like the GOAT didn't cry either.
I put a few links up in earlier discussion on this site with various GM's and scouts putting Williams in that area historically with Maye in the discussion at least. Though in 1 discussion 10 scouts said it was close and 10 scouts said they'd take WIlliams.
I used the historical rankings from Kiper, as he lists is top 15 QB's of all time going into a draft based on his ranking at the time. 80% of top 10 became good NFL starters, 50% all pro level.
Stats by themselves, in college are not that meaningful, especially in a small sample size. Louisville had a kick blocked at own 20, fumbles at own 20, Moss should have been pick 6 on first throw, was picked at end zone, thru behind receivers several times for large gains but separation was so big they still caught the ball. Moss made a couple NFL type throws but way more were bad than good on the tape and Louisville was not good on defense that day. On tape Williams and Maye are on another level. Maye never has a receiver with any separation.
There is a reason Jayden Daniels is the clear #3 QB despite having the bests stats. Stats are meaningful but only in combination with the tape.
There are a ton of examples comparing Williams historically out there but here's one from the Athletic:
Nick Baumgardner: The only certainty at the moment is that Maye and Williams, in some order, are QB1 and QB2. As Dane has noted, that order will depend on the team. I think both are capable of entering a bad situation next year and making it better pretty quickly, though. That’s not something we always say about the top QB in the draft. If we’re being honest, it’s not something we’ve said about a guy since at least
Trevor Lawrence.
