Tankathon

[Patsgofor4]

It is more probable than not that neither Williams nor Maye will end up being the best QB in the upcoming draft. Find the guy who got overlooked as the top dog. Easy peasy. Ha.

I’m not sweating the fact that they dropped a notch in terms of draft position and I’m happy for the coaches and the players that they pulled out the win in a prime time game because those guys put in a crazy amount of time in preparation for each game.

I’ll be happy if they land any of the following with their first pick:

Williams/Maye/Daniels
MHJ
Fashanu/Alt

So, in my humble opinion, as long as they don’t fall below pick 6, they will be in good position to choose a guy who moves the needle significantly at a critical position.

 

[Love The Drake]

It is more probable than not that neither Williams nor Maye will end up being the best QB in the upcoming draft. Find the guy who got overlooked as the top dog. Easy peasy. Ha.

I’m not sweating the fact that they dropped a notch in terms of draft position and I’m happy for the coaches and the players that they pulled out the win in a prime time game because those guys put in a crazy amount of time in preparation for each game.

I’ll be happy if they land any of the following with their first pick:

Williams/Maye/Daniels
MHJ
Fashanu/Alt

So, in my humble opinion, as long as they don’t fall below pick 6, they will be in good position to choose a guy who moves the needle significantly at a critical position.

I would entertain Nabor in the top 10

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Your take is specifically on QB.

No one should be debating the higher the pick the better isn't true.

No one can honestly think that's not true.

You still have to hit on your pick....

The whole context of the discussion has been regarding QB's. And the point is that especially with QB's, it's kind of hard to claim that picking around 6-7 is any worse than picking at 2.

 

[festy1986]

The whole context of the discussion has been regarding QB's. And the point is that especially with QB's, it's kind of hard to claim that picking around 6-7 is any worse than picking at 2.

The higher the pick the better the odds.

It's not debatable.

You still have to hit the pick.

Brady was a 6th rounder and Purdy a 7th, I think Montana was a 4th?

You wouldn't actually advocate that we'd pick our future quarterback in those rounds would you?

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I guess I don’t know what you’re talking about, maybe you’re changing the subject? This has been a discussion about how big a deal is it to win an unexpected game or two here at the end of the season, changing our pick from top 3 to maybe 5 or 6. You’ve been making a case that it’s a very big deal, but the recent history of QB picks says otherwise.

Picking very high gives a team more options and flexibility, including the option to trade down for a bounty. But it doesn’t guarantee a better QB pick. There are more top tier QBs that were drafted 5 to 10 than 1 to 4.

 

[festy1986]

I guess I don’t know what you’re talking about, maybe you’re changing the subject? This has been a discussion about how big a deal is it to win an unexpected game or two here at the end of the season, changing our pick from top 3 to maybe 5 or 6. You’ve been making a case that it’s a very big deal, but the recent history of QB picks says otherwise.

Picking very high gives a team more options and flexibility, including the option to trade down for a bounty. But it doesn’t guarantee a better QB pick. There are more top tier QBs that were drafted 5 to 10 than 1 to 4.

The history of the NFL is more important than the last couple years sample size.

You wanna take the third QB off the board with pick 6? Did you learn nothing with Mac?

Trade back, accumulate assets and grab a QB in the second or third round since you don't seem to have the premium on a top guy.

 

[LightSkinSmurf]

Your take is specifically on QB.

No one should be debating the higher the pick the better isn't true.

No one can honestly think that's not true.

You still have to hit on your pick....

It's as dumb as trying to argue that having 1 dollar is better or the same as having 20 dollars because all these people with 20 dollars spent it on dumb stuff. That's how idiotic that logic is.

No **** having a higher pick doesn't guarantee anything. No one is trying to argue it does. You still have to get the damn pick right.

 

[KCSVEN]

changing our pick from top 3 to maybe 5 or 6. You’ve been making a case that it’s a very big deal, but the recent history of QB picks says otherwise.

I think people miss out on the caliber of QB when analyzing this. Williams ranks in the top 10 of historical prospects which equates to an 80% chance of being a long-term quality NFL starter and 50% chance of perennial all-pro. The level of top 3 drafted QB prospect like Bryce Young and Stroud and any QB the last decade, outside of Lawrence, has about a 25% chance of becoming a long-term quality NFL QB and much less in terms of perennial all pro.
.
Maye will fall somewhere between Daniels and Williams depending on his workouts, he has the potential to move very close to Williams. He's built to blow away the combine workouts ala Josh Allen so I suspect he'll be pretty close to Williams in the end, but we shall see
.
Daniels will be in that 25% success realm as a prospect which equates to an average first round QB prospect. If Maye and Williams were not in this draft, he would go top 2, if Maye and Williams were in the draft last year Young and Stroud do not go in the top 2. It is all relative.

This year is unique where you have a prospect ranking just behind Manning, Elway and Luck and about even with Trevor Lawrence historically. The second-best prospect is not too far behind.
90% of the time picking 5-6 vs 3 would be meaningless. This year is unique.

 

[Steve102]

It is more probable than not that neither Williams nor Maye will end up being the best QB in the upcoming draft. Find the guy who got overlooked as the top dog. Easy peasy. Ha.

I’m not sweating the fact that they dropped a notch in terms of draft position and I’m happy for the coaches and the players that they pulled out the win in a prime time game because those guys put in a crazy amount of time in preparation for each game.

I’ll be happy if they land any of the following with their first pick:

Williams/Maye/Daniels
MHJ
Fashanu/Alt

So, in my humble opinion, as long as they don’t fall below pick 6, they will be in good position to choose a guy who moves the needle significantly at a critical position.

MHJ won't be there beyond 3 in my opinion, but to your point, yeah, wherever they pick needs to be guy that shores up a problem position for years.

 

[Grogan14]

The NFL should start an NBA style lottery if it wants to minimize tanking.
The teams with the worst 6 records do the ping pong ball contest

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

The history of the NFL is more important than the last couple years sample size.

You wanna take the third QB off the board with pick 6? Did you learn nothing with Mac?

Trade back, accumulate assets and grab a QB in the second or third round since you don't seem to have the premium on a top guy.

Mostly agree but jayden daniels is starting to join the discussion with the other 2 , not sure how you feel about him. He will be there at 4, in fact some even have him going before one or both the other 2 in which case we could probably get maye at 4 (i think mhj is going top 3 probably to az as theyll hold onto kyler and mhj is too good a prospect to pass up for a trade down).

Id also be tempted to stay put for nabers if we slip to 5 and daniels and maye/williams/mhj are gone. The top 6 almost guarantees a top prospect at qb or wr that’s the way id hope we go since we clearly struggle hitting on wr at our traditional picking spots. Whereas We have plucked good ol all over the place in the past.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I don't agree with it but I heard Ted Johnson and Tom Curran both make that claim. Their reasoning was bolstered by the curious decisions late in the KC game.

The whole dialog is complete BS fabricated by a couple of media idiots with on going agendas. No one is going to pay attention if they don't come up with something to talk about. While extremely putrid football to watch, the game strategy was intended to limit the opportunities for counter productive plays on offense to keep the game close enough to win if the team caught a break. As the offense becomes more reliable, the strategy will evolve to depend more on the offense.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I am nervous for the Jete game.

 

[Clonamery]

I am nervous for the Jete game.

We should start drinking now.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I think people miss out on the caliber of QB when analyzing this. Williams ranks in the top 10 of historical prospects which equates to an 80% chance of being a long-term quality NFL starter and 50% chance of perennial all-pro. The level of top 3 drafted QB prospect like Bryce Young and Stroud and any QB the last decade, outside of Lawrence, has about a 25% chance of becoming a long-term quality NFL QB and much less in terms of perennial all pro.
.
Maye will fall somewhere between Daniels and Williams depending on his workouts, he has the potential to move very close to Williams. He's built to blow away the combine workouts ala Josh Allen so I suspect he'll be pretty close to Williams in the end, but we shall see
.
Daniels will be in that 25% success realm as a prospect which equates to an average first round QB prospect. If Maye and Williams were not in this draft, he would go top 2, if Maye and Williams were in the draft last year Young and Stroud do not go in the top 2. It is all relative.

This year is unique where you have a prospect ranking just behind Manning, Elway and Luck and about even with Trevor Lawrence historically. The second-best prospect is not too far behind.
90% of the time picking 5-6 vs 3 would be meaningless. This year is unique.

Just curious where you get the "Williams ranks in the top 10 of historical prospects which equates to an 80% chance..." Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be angry if he went to the Pats, but I just wonder about this whole "generational" (not your words but just in gerenal) business.

2 days ago, his replacement Miller Moss in the USC Holiday Bowl against #16 Louisville won 42-28 throwing 23-33 (69.7%) for 372yds, 6TDs and 1INT. Caleb against top 25 teams in the last 2 years had a record of 2-7 (0-4 in 2023), throwing for 68.5% 330yds 2.3TD 0.7INT per game over the last 2 years.

I didn't even mind the crying in his Mama's lap within the context. Losing to UW but going 27 for 35 for 312yds and 3TDs 0INTs in his final game... Yeah not a good look, but it's not like the GOAT didn't cry either.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

The history of the NFL is more important than the last couple years sample size.

You wanna take the third QB off the board with pick 6? Did you learn nothing with Mac?

Trade back, accumulate assets and grab a QB in the second or third round since you don't seem to have the premium on a top guy.

Here’s the thing: you don’t know what guys are going when. By draft day, Daniels could be rated higher than Caleb, and a DE could be the 2nd rated player.

As far as our chances of landing a top QB, I’m just as comfortable with the 6th pick as the 2nd or 3rd, cause history has proven again and again that just as many top QBs are taken at 5-10 as at 2. That’s indisputable.

 

[festy1986]

Here’s the thing: you don’t know what guys are going when. By draft day, Daniels could be rated higher than Caleb, and a DE could be the 2nd rated player.

As far as our chances of landing a top QB, I’m just as comfortable with the 6th pick as the 2nd or 3rd, cause history has proven again and again that just as many top QBs are taken at 5-10 as at 2. That’s indisputable.

You're saying you don't want first crack at it cause history shows other organizations got it wrong?

Interesting take.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

You're saying you don't want first crack at it cause history shows other organizations got it wrong?

Interesting take.

What first crack? We were never in line for #1. We were #2 briefly. Pats aren't laying down so we'll probably pick between 5 and 7, and as fans it's out of our control. History also shows that the best QB's are frequently taken between 5 & 10, and that there's many misses at 2 and 3 (in the same drafts). There are also some great looking non-QB's that will go in the top 5.

So I'm not sweating picking at 6 or so. We have just as good a chance of landing an impact QB as anyone higher than that.

 

[festy1986]

What first crack? We were never in line for #1. We were #2 briefly. Pats aren't laying down so we'll probably pick between 5 and 7, and as fans it's out of our control. History also shows that the best QB's are frequently taken between 5 & 10, and that there's many misses at 2 and 3 (in the same drafts). There are also some great looking non-QB's that will go in the top 5.

So I'm not sweating picking at 6 or so. We have just as good a chance of landing an impact QB as anyone higher than that.

You've made your point quite clear.

Just make sure you keep the same energy next year when they burned their first rounder on the third or fourth QB off the board and all you're left with is Mac Jones 2.0

 

[upstater1]

I guess I don’t know what you’re talking about, maybe you’re changing the subject? This has been a discussion about how big a deal is it to win an unexpected game or two here at the end of the season, changing our pick from top 3 to maybe 5 or 6. You’ve been making a case that it’s a very big deal, but the recent history of QB picks says otherwise.

Picking very high gives a team more options and flexibility, including the option to trade down for a bounty. But it doesn’t guarantee a better QB pick. There are more top tier QBs that were drafted 5 to 10 than 1 to 4.

I'm not too sure about that (first I'd note we're comparing QBs pick in 4 spots as opposed to 6 spots).

1-4. CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Goff, Luck, Cam Newton, Stafford, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Peyton Manning.

5-10. Tua (at 5), Herbert, Josh Allen, Mahomes.

Even though a lot more successful QBs can be found at 1-4, I don't think this year's class is clear cut, and no one can really argue that Williams will definitely be better than Daniels or vice versa.

Whereas a lot of these earlier classes had some clear cut distinctions (Trevor Lawrence, Cam Newton, Luck, Manning, etc.)