Slater to Return in 2023

[mgteich]

You can absolutely correlate them.

When a gunner makes a tackle, that limits potential return yardage.

When a gunner redirects the returner or blows up the blocking scheme on the return, that allows another player to make a limiting tackle. That is hidden yardage.

Coaches look at the disruption. They look at a punt return which went for a FC or went for a 5yd return b/c Slater beat his double-team block and was down the field in the returner's grill. That is also hidden yardage.

This has a cascading effect on the entire game. A limiting special teams tackle in turn limits starting field position which means if the D does it's job it will provide better starting FP for the offense. That is another example of hidden yardage.

I know you'll have a hard time quantifying this and I'll tend to agree it's not easily quantifiable. You'll have to watch some film of Slater doing these three things, come to your own conclusion what yardage he accounts far and his impact his on each of those plays and then you might appreciate his value and how it directly impacts games.

IMO, what we need is to replace the ST coach. The group had a lack of discipline.

We have the personnel, and Belichick will add more if needed. Schooler was a really good addition (replacing Bethel). We should be re-signing Wilson and/or Mitchell. Davis (S/ST) is a question mark. He was injured much of the year.

 

[RobertWeathers]

IMO, what we need is to replace the ST coach. The group had a lack of discipline.

We have the personnel, and Belichick will add more if needed. Schooler was a really good addition (replacing Bethel). We should be re-signing Wilson and/or Wilson. Davis (S/ST) is a question mark. He was injured much of the year.

Agree. Archord just isn't the guy.

Injuries hurt as well. Losing Cody Davis was a blow but he might be too old now. Losing Schooler for the Jill's game was a killer.

 

[DaBruinz]

IMO, what we need is to replace the ST coach. The group had a lack of discipline.

We have the personnel, and Belichick will add more if needed. Schooler was a really good addition (replacing Bethel). We should be re-signing Wilson and/or Mitchell. Davis (S/ST) is a question mark. He was injured much of the year.

Who is this Mitchell you're referring to? Or do you mean RaeKwon McMillan?

I agree that the team's STs discipline was lacking last year.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Were the ST a disaster for the last two season or not?

Like I said, in one rookie season, Marcus Jones has accomplished more than Slater for his entire career. Marcus already has 3x as many TDs. And Slater fell on his one career TD in the end zone with no one near him.

There have already been a lot of terrible takes on this site in 2023, but this has to be the new leader in the clubhouse for the worst. BB was asked to comment:



Are you you trying to be controversial and edgy or are you just not very bright?

 

[crawhammer]

There have already been a lot of terrible takes on this site in 2023, but this has to be the new leader in the clubhouse for the worst. BB was asked to comment:



Are you you trying to be controversial and edgy or are you just not very bright?

Call me an idiot if you think it supports your argument. But taking personal shots at me doesn't make Slater anymore valuable and it shows that you have an obvious lack of actual support for your argument.

My take is you are overrating Slater and he's not even close to being in the NFL HOF conversation. Since there's very little else to point to, we're left with his on-field contribution being loosely tied to hidden yardage, which involves a number of variables and circumstances unrelated to Slater (because he's not on the field or not touching the ball when he is). Besides that, according to the study provided in this thread, hidden yardage only explains approximately 4% of the likelihood of winning a game. 96% of the likelihood of winning a game is related to other factors (unrelated to Slater). So Slater effects an indeterminant small amount of a 4% likelihood of winning a game. But I'm the idiot looking at actual data.

 

[mgteich]

Who is this Mitchell you're referring to? Or do you mean RaeKwon McMillan?

I agree that the team's STs discipline was lacking last year.

Thank you for the correction.

Mitchell is under contract.

It is Wilson and McMillan who are free agents.

 

[crawhammer]

When a gunner redirects the returner or is double-teamed (which Slater is all the time) on the return, that allows another player to make a return-limiting tackle. That is hidden yardage.

I think that's taking it a step too far... effectively giving Slater credit for a teammate's tackle. There are too many moving parts on any single play to start divvying up hidden yardage like that. Slater also benefits similarly on other plays so I'm sure this sort of thing generally balances out.

You can absolutely correlate them. I'll show you...

When a gunner beats the blocking scheme and makes a tackle, that limits potential return yardage.

Coaches look at the disruption. They look at a punt return which went for a FC or the returner disengages because of the gunner and lets the ball bounce and be downed or lastly, went for a 5yd return b/c Slater beat his blockers and was quickly down the field and in the returner's grill. All of these are circumstances of hidden yardage.

This has a cascading effect on the entire game. A great special teams play limits offensive starting field position which means if the D does its job it will provide better starting FP for the offense. That is another example of hidden yardage. During the course of a game this hidden yardage can be small or significant and game-altering.

I know you'll have a hard time quantifying this and I'll tend to agree it's not easily quantifiable. You'll have to watch some film of Slater doing these three things, come to your own conclusion on what his impact his on each of those plays and what hidden yardage he accounts for. Depending on how well you understand the coverage design, lane containment, etc and his role in the play, then you might appreciate his value and how he directly impacts games.

This is great, very well thought out and stated. I wouldn't necessary dispute much of it, except for the excerpt above, and the suggestion that hidden yardage can be "significant and game-altering." That I believe is extremely rare and again, according to the study provided in this thread, hidden yardage only explains approximately 4% of the likelihood of winning a game.

I'm not disputing Slater has been good at what he does, he's been impactful in his ST role, (however) which I contend is of relatively limited value to the overall success of the team. QB, WR, TE, RB, OL, DB, LB, DL, K, P, KR, PR... all generally provide higher value. But some people are talking NFL HOF for Slater.

 

[Pape]

But I'm the idiot looking at actual data.

when no data exists, yeah, you are.

But some people are talking NFL HOF for Slater.

who? not a single person has said this in this thread.

if you are solely referring to the RKK statement, well thats his opinion on what Matthew Slater has brought to his team. Otherwise, who has said the HoF is in his future?

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think that's taking it a step too far... effectively giving Slater credit for a teammate's tackle.

It isn't. It's akin to a great DT drawing a double team so a LB or another lineman can make the play. You look at the play to determine it.

There are too many moving parts on any single play to start divvying up hidden yardage like that. Slater also benefits similarly on other plays so I'm sure this sort of thing generally balances out.

I know. It's a lot easier to look at Profootballreference and PFF to see who gets the statistical credit.

This is great, very well thought out and stated. I wouldn't necessary dispute much of it, except for the excerpt above, and the suggestion that hidden yardage can be "significant and game-altering." That I believe is extremely rare and again, according to the study provided in this thread, hidden yardage only explains approximately 4% of the likelihood of winning a game.

If a punt or kickoff is returned for a TD and the reason is ****ty lane containment that is game altering.

When a punt or kickoff is returned for 40 yards in the 4th quarter that is game altering.

The article explains hidden yardage but excludes expected punt/kr return yardage vs actual. That's where guys like Slater come in.

I'm not disputing Slater has been good at what he does, he's been impactful in his ST role, (however) which I contend is of relatively limited value to the overall success of the team. QB, WR, TE, RB, OL, DB, LB, DL, K, P, KR, PR... all generally provide higher value.

There is a reason offensive linemen, Ray Guy and PKers are in the HoF. Dirty work and special teams matter.

But some people are talking NFL HOF for Slater.

Because he should be and other notable ST players as well such as Tasker, Bates, etc and some of the returners you mention.

Like I said, you just don't understand the nuance of the gunner role which limits your ability to assign value to it.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Call me an idiot if you think it supports your argument. But taking personal shots at me doesn't make Slater anymore valuable and it shows that you have an obvious lack of actual support for your argument.

My take is you are overrating Slater and he's not even close to being in the NFL HOF conversation. Since there's very little else to point to, we're left with his on-field contribution being loosely tied to hidden yardage, which involves a number of variables and circumstances unrelated to Slater (because he's not on the field or not touching the ball when he is). Besides that, according to the study provided in this thread, hidden yardage only explains approximately 4% of the likelihood of winning a game. 96% of the likelihood of winning a game is related to other factors (unrelated to Slater). So Slater effects an indeterminant small amount of a 4% likelihood of winning a game. But I'm the idiot looking at actual data.

First, I didn’t call you an idiot. I gave two possibilities for what you wrote, one of which was the possibility that you may not be so bright.

Second, in the future, if you don’t want to be called an idiot, don’t say or write idiotic things. It’s one thing to argue that special teams are overvalued and that Slater’s impact in particular has been overblown. I strongly disagree with that, but it’s not an outrageous argument. On the other hand, it IS absurd to write “In one rookie season, Marcus Jones has accomplished more than Slater for his entire career”. It is, frankly, an embarrassing take that zero percent of NFL head coaches, assistant coaches, scouts and GM would agree with……but you probably know better than they do. John Henry probable has some stats geek on his payroll who would agree with you, so there’s that.

 

[1960Pats]

This is in the category of it's better to get rid of a player too late than too early.
It also puts to rest the false notion that Bill doesn't have favorites.

 

[Jlaff]

I didn't call you and idiot because I don't think you are one. I said you are ignorant pertaining to this aspect of football and cannot grasp its importance.

You can absolutely correlate them. I'll show you...

When a gunner beats the blocking scheme and makes a tackle, that limits potential return yardage.

When a gunner redirects the returner or is double-teamed (which Slater is all the time) on the return, that allows another player to make a return-limiting tackle. That is hidden yardage.

Coaches look at the disruption. They look at a punt return which went for a FC or the returner disengages because of the gunner and lets the ball bounce and be downed or lastly, went for a 5yd return b/c Slater beat his blockers and was quickly down the field and in the returner's grill. All of these are circumstances of hidden yardage.

This has a cascading effect on the entire game. A great special teams play limits offensive starting field position which means if the D does its job it will provide better starting FP for the offense. That is another example of hidden yardage. During the course of a game this hidden yardage can be small or significant and game-altering.

I know you'll have a hard time quantifying this and I'll tend to agree it's not easily quantifiable. You'll have to watch some film of Slater doing these three things, come to your own conclusion on what his impact his on each of those plays and what hidden yardage he accounts for. Depending on how well you understand the coverage design, lane containment, etc and his role in the play, then you might appreciate his value and how he directly impacts games.

Good post. I thought @crawhammer had valid points and someone has finally presented a well thought out counterpoint (apart from repeating the hidden yardage stuff, which was unnecessary).

 

[festy1986]

Maybe it's time to move away from players who perform literally one role on the team.

Slater is a HOF but he's not moving the needle for us either way.

 

[libra957]

One of the last true patriots.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Just curious Crawhammer, are you an engineer?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Maybe it's time to move away from players who perform literally one role on the team.

Slater is a HOF but he's not moving the needle for us either way.

Hes paid 1% of the cap and core STers typically don't play on O and D.

Purging for the sake of purging doesn't make sense.

 

[crawhammer]

when no data exists, yeah, you are.

No data? There's plenty of data. I provided it. A source was also provided (by DaBruinz) which analyzed a variety of situations and numbers. Maybe you're not paying attention.

who? not a single person has said this in this thread.

if you are solely referring to the RKK statement, well thats his opinion on what Matthew Slater has brought to his team. Otherwise, who has said the HoF is in his future?

I've heard it. Not just here (but if you put up a poll then I'm willing to bet a majority would vote yes for the NFL HOF). I think we've all heard or read it somewhere. Originally I only referenced Kraft's comment with regard to the HOF.

Edit: Robert Weathers said it in the next post lol

Because he should be and other notable ST players as well such as Tasker, Bates, etc and some of the returners you mention.

Like I said, you just don't understand the nuance of the gunner role which limits your ability to assign value to it.

I appreciate much of what you're saying. I just don't agree with all of it. I understand the nuance of the gunner role, and I'm assigning value to it (from what I believe to be my informed perspective), it's just different from yours. Slater's good at what he does so he's not without some value. But his on-field role is relatively small, which caps his impact below meaningful. I cited those other STers, all outstanding returners who are far more impactful in that role only, but they also contributed elsewhere (and most of them significantly). That really distances Staler from that group.

You mention Tasker, who I wouldn't put in the HOF either, but at least he added 9 receiving TDs in his career. Bates was an accomplished returner. An accomplished returner is more important than a gunner.

it IS absurd to write “In one rookie season, Marcus Jones has accomplished more than Slater for his entire career”. It is, frankly, an embarrassing take that zero percent of NFL head coaches, assistant coaches, scouts and GM would agree with

If that's all you're talking about then I'll admit that's a hyperbolic statement (which you took literally). However, you realize Marcus had an offensive, defensive and ST TD this season? He already has 2 more TDs than Slater. Plus he won a game for the team on his punt return. Slater has never won a game with a ST play. But no, I'm not saying a rookie is more accomplished than a 15-year veteran. But he's off to a great start.

Also, if we're going to put a Patriots STer into the NFL HOF then I'm making a case for Troy Brown far ahead of Slater. Brown made significant contributions as a returner, including in the postseason, plus he was a good WR, and he even played a little defense (effectively). In the real world Brown's not a HOFer, but with a hypothetical choice between Brown and Slater, it's Brown easily for me.

 

[Pape]

No data? There's plenty of data. I provided it. A source was also provided (by DaBruinz) which analyzed a variety of situations and numbers. Maybe you're not paying attention. < snip >

same thing over and over and over... you are as bad a ring6 and dkf...

the only thing left to say is suck it up buttercup, cuz he's back whether you see the value or not


.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

When people are arguing over a 37 year old special teamer....

When people are arguing with Crawhammer .....

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Maybe it's time to move away from players who perform literally one role on the team.

Slater is a HOF but he's not moving the needle for us either way.

With a salary cap, the value depends on the role and $$. For example, gunners (low $$s) need to be fast and sprint the field multiple times a game. You don't want your X receiver (high $$s) doing that and wearing them out. Special teams guys keep your high skill, high cost guys fresh while avoiding injuries. If you try to eliminate one role, low cost guys, the team can not afford extra multiple role, high cost X receivers.