SB seasons and the first quarter of the year

[ivanvamp]

Different teams, different seasons, etc.

2001 (11-5 season, 1-3 first quarter)
L, 23-17 at Cin
L, 10-3 vs NYJ
W, 44-13 vs Ind
L, 30-10 at Mia

2003 (14-2 season, 2-2 first quarter)
L, 31-0 at Buf
W, 31-10 vs Phi
W, 23-16 vs NYJ
L, 20-17 at Was

2004 (14-2 season, 4-0 first quarter)
W, 27-24 vs Ind
W, 23-12 at Ari
W, 31-17 at Buf
W, 24-10 vs Mia

2014 (12-4 season, 2-2 first quarter)
L, 33-20 at Mia
W, 30-7 at Min
W, 16-9 vs Oak
L, 41-14 at KC

2016 (14-2 season, 3-1 first quarter)
W, 23-21 at Ari
W, 31-24 vs Mia
W, 27-0 vs Tex
L, 16-0 vs Buf

Their total record for these five championship seasons was 65-15 (.813). Their first-quarter record these five championship seasons was 12-8 (.600). That means over their last three quarters of these seasons, they've gone 53-7 (.883). That's just...insane.

Each of these seasons was different, and had different players and circumstances. We all know this. Past performance is not indicative of future results. But the point is that the Patriots, when they've won the Super Bowl, haven't exactly tended to come out like a house of fire in the first quarter of the season. Last year they were without Brady. In 2001 they had Bledsoe first. But in 2014 they weren't very good to start. In 2003 they weren't very good to start. They have a way of figuring it out, even if the fan base (and media) worry that there are massive problems.

This isn't to say that losing in the early part of the year is good, or that it guarantees that the Pats will win the SB or anything ridiculous like that. It just means that we can relax a little, knowing that the Patriots under Belichick have a history of figuring things out as the season goes along, and that losing early, even in ugly fashion, isn't a death knell of any sort.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

Good point here and solid data to back it up. I'm torn because all the above is true, and certainly we should know not to count BB and TB out EVER. However, I am not sure how we address the lack of talent at LB which is, I believe, where the fault line is. That group just reminds me too much of the Monty Biesel days where there just aren't playmakers. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see how it improves without an outside addition, and I don't see much talent available barring a trade.

 

[ivanvamp]

Good point here and solid data to back it up. I'm torn because all the above is true, and certainly we should know not to count BB and TB out EVER. However, I am not sure how we address the lack of talent at LB which is, I believe, where the fault line is. That group just reminds me too much of the Monty Biesel days where there just aren't playmakers. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see how it improves without an outside addition, and I don't see much talent available barring a trade.

They didn't have much OLB talent last year either. Last year they had Van Noy and Roberts playing big minutes in the Super Bowl. Roberts played nearly 30% of defensive snaps and Van Noy played 61%. McClellan played 16% of the defensive snaps. Those three - Roberts, Van Noy, and McClellan - aren't exactly Taylor, Lambert, and Butkus.

It was still enough to win a Super Bowl. The secondary needs to play well and the front four (or three, depending on their alignment) needs to improve considerably. I really think if Nink comes back and Hightower can go back to LB, that single move alone could be enormously helpful. But it doesn't solve the lack-of-speed-at-LB issue, but again, they weren't really fast last year either...basically the same group of guys.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

ok $1million fine for pats intentionally tanking first qtr of season!

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

They didn't have much OLB talent last year either. Last year they had Van Noy and Roberts playing big minutes in the Super Bowl. Roberts played nearly 30% of defensive snaps and Van Noy played 61%. McClellan played 16% of the defensive snaps. Those three - Roberts, Van Noy, and McClellan - aren't exactly Taylor, Lambert, and Butkus.

It was still enough to win a Super Bowl. The secondary needs to play well and the front four (or three, depending on their alignment) needs to improve considerably. I really think if Nink comes back and Hightower can go back to LB, that single move alone could be enormously helpful. But it doesn't solve the lack-of-speed-at-LB issue, but again, they weren't really fast last year either...basically the same group of guys.

The d line needs a bounce back game. I wanna see more wise. I think the guy has a lot of talent.

 

[brdmaverick]

Their total record for these five championship seasons was 65-15 (.813). Their first-quarter record these five championship seasons was 12-8 (.600). That means over their last three quarters of these seasons, they've gone 53-7 (.883). That's just...insane.

That's the money stat right there.............during championship seasons the Pats have lost more total games in the first quarter of the season than in the last three quarters combined.

 

[ivanvamp]

That's the money stat right there.............during championship seasons the Pats have lost more total games in the first quarter of the season than in the last three quarters combined.

It really is amazing when you think about it. Five championship seasons.

First quarter: 12-8 (.600) - which isn't bad
Last 3 quarters: 53-7 (.883) - which is...ludicrous

 

[IllegalContact]

lol......the miami game 3 years ago was worse than this last one

 

[Tony2046]

If you've watched any of the Do your Jobs or the America's game you'll know how valuable film study is to the Pats. The problem with the first three or four games of the year there isn't any fresh film on any of the opponents. KC did not play a typical KC game. Alex Smith does not typically throw down field. Hell Footballs Outsiders named an airless stat after him. So credit Andy Reed for a great game plan.

Anyways I'm not worried but am enjoying the overreaction Hawt Take lunacy.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

The CBA several years ago eliminated "2-a-day"practices and placed limits on padded practices. The result is poor quality during the first month across the league.

Tony brings up a good point regarding film study.

The first quarter of the season has become extended summer training.

Please do not twist what I am saying - going 0-4 is certainly not virtuous.
Never the less the first quarter of the season seems to carry a lot less weight
than the later portions.

 

[luuked]

Different teams, different seasons, etc.

2001 (11-5 season, 1-3 first quarter)
L, 23-17 at Cin
L, 10-3 vs NYJ
W, 44-13 vs Ind
L, 30-10 at Mia

2003 (14-2 season, 2-2 first quarter)
L, 31-0 at Buf
W, 31-10 vs Phi
W, 23-16 vs NYJ
L, 20-17 at Was

2004 (14-2 season, 4-0 first quarter)
W, 27-24 vs Ind
W, 23-12 at Ari
W, 31-17 at Buf
W, 24-10 vs Mia

2014 (12-4 season, 2-2 first quarter)
L, 33-20 at Mia
W, 30-7 at Min
W, 16-9 vs Oak
L, 41-14 at KC

2016 (14-2 season, 3-1 first quarter)
W, 23-21 at Ari
W, 31-24 vs Mia
W, 27-0 vs Tex
L, 16-0 vs Buf

Their total record for these five championship seasons was 65-15 (.813). Their first-quarter record these five championship seasons was 12-8 (.600). That means over their last three quarters of these seasons, they've gone 53-7 (.883). That's just...insane.

Each of these seasons was different, and had different players and circumstances. We all know this. Past performance is not indicative of future results. But the point is that the Patriots, when they've won the Super Bowl, haven't exactly tended to come out like a house of fire in the first quarter of the season. Last year they were without Brady. In 2001 they had Bledsoe first. But in 2014 they weren't very good to start. In 2003 they weren't very good to start. They have a way of figuring it out, even if the fan base (and media) worry that there are massive problems.

This isn't to say that losing in the early part of the year is good, or that it guarantees that the Pats will win the SB or anything ridiculous like that. It just means that we can relax a little, knowing that the Patriots under Belichick have a history of figuring things out as the season goes along, and that losing early, even in ugly fashion, isn't a death knell of any sort.

Not sure why you limited your listing to SB years. We have been starting slow in almost every year since 2012 and each of this years ended in the AFCCG.

 

[DarrylS]

ok $1million fine for pats intentionally tanking first qtr of season!

They compromised the so-called "Integrity" of the NFL.. or in other vernacular, a classic "Rope a Dope"...

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

lol......the miami game 3 years ago was worse than this last one

Wasn't that the game where the Dolphins allegedly knew the audibles and line calls?????

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Not sure why you limited your listing to SB years. We have been starting slow in almost every year since 2012 and each of this years ended in the AFCCG.

2012 2-2 overall 12-4
2013 4-0 overall 12-4
2014 2-2 overall 12-4
2015 4-0 overall 12-4
2016 3-1 * overall 14-2 (playoffs excluded)

cumulative
first quarter 15-5 .750
rest of season 47-13 .783
If you include playoffs (10-3) rest of season becomes 57-16 .781

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Mods delete

 

[mosi]

Agree that the early games are meaningless but at the same time, the Patriots need to realize how they played dictated the outcome of the game. I hope to god there are not Patriots players doing what fans are doing on this web-site. The Pats lost because the Chiefs were better coached, played better defense, played better offense and played better special teams. KC deserved to win that game. That game reminded me 100% of the 2014 Miami game. Just going through the motions and not responded when you get punched in the mouth...

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

mods (@Ian @Ross12 ) mind merging this with @ivanvamp 's thread? Figured there's enough overlap

SB seasons and the first quarter of the year

 

[IllegalContact]

Wasn't that the game where the Dolphins allegedly knew the audibles and line calls?????

don't remember, but they fell flat on their faces even worse in the 2nd half in that game

tannehill threw for like 400 yards.........................tannehill

 

[BabeParilli]

If this D plays anything like they did last game, Brees will eat them alive.

 

[luuked]

2012 2-2 overall 12-4
2013 4-0 overall 12-4
2014 2-2 overall 12-4
2015 4-0 overall 12-4
2016 3-1 * overall 14-2 (playoffs excluded)

cumulative
first quarter 15-5 .750
rest of season 47-13 .783
If you include playoffs (10-3) rest of season becomes 57-16 .781

Oh wow thanks. I didnt mean for you to actually give the stats but was just pointing out that we have been starting slow for a long time. And the numbers often don't tell the whole story. Take 2013 for example. I think Brady looked as bad as ever with a completely revamped receiver group and Dola getting that groin injury during his first game against the Bills. We barely squeezed out a win at Buffalo with a game winning FG, won a disastrous TNF game against the Jets and then overwhelmed the Bucs at home without it ever being impressive.