San Diego Points For/Against Analysis (Long Read)

[Oswlek]

1) wasn't trying to skew facts, wanted to make sure the analysis was fair. i could've ignored it since it worked against the chargers but that wouldn't be right.

2) trend figures are an inaccurate depiction of the two teams.

3) the last 5 games of the season, however, were against much stronger opponents for the chargers than for the patriots. view:

SD last 5 : Buffalo, Denver, KC, Seattle, Arizona
NE last 5 : Detroit, Miami, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee

the only team the patriots faced that had a shot at going to the playoffs were the jags (tenn was a long-shot, and clearly not playoff caliber).

denver, was bumped out by SF.. KC and seattle both made it to the playoffs. so to look at the last few games and to try and compare the results from the chargers to patriots, you don't come anywhere near an accurate depiction of how the two teams are.

new england barely beat detroit and lost to houston.

1) The points analysis weights teams by how well they scored and defensed points against their oppositions averages, so a "quality of opposition" weighting is already applied.

2) The last 4 games are the ones used (excluding Arizona for SD) so it is really:

SD - Buffalo, Denver, KC Seattle
NE - Houston, Jacksonville, TN and NY

I don't see a huge difference and neither did the PF/PA figures.

 

[Oswlek]

I wouldn't call Olshansky a difference-maker. Well, maybe. He does his job, which is to tie up blockers and open lanes for the linebackers. He's very much a prototypical 3-4 defensive end...he won't put up big numbers but he does his job. He's kind of Jamal Williams-lite. (And thank God Jamal was the one guy in the front-7 who was healthy all year. In reality he's probably the most important player on our defense.)

The reason Castillo is a difference-maker is that he does everything Olshansky does and he gets pressure on the QB and makes plays in the backfield. If teams double-up Jamal and rotate the LT out on Merriman, Castillo is the guy who can beat 1-on-1 blocking and get pressure. If teams double up Jamal and Luis, it usually leaves Merriman on a tight end or back and that's a mismatch.

Jacques Cesaire, Castillo's replacement, is more of a rotational guy and journeyman, and we missed Castillo's ability to disrupt.

Jamal is ridiculously good. If I was starting a team, I would take him over Merriman. What gives me hope is that NE's interior lineman are very good. If NE has a weakness it is on the edges and they usually protect that by having TE's stay in to block. NE's TEs and RBs are actually quite good at blocking, particularly Daniel Graham.

 

[abyzmul]

Do you really believe that a midseason thrashing of Green Bay or Minny (the week after they dominated Seattle) compares in any way to TN with Collins?

if you view the play by play you will see that vince young entered the game in the third quarter with the score 17-0 (chargers ahead). game ended 40-7.

minnesota dominated seattle???? minnesota was winning 17-10 when matt hasselbeck was injured at 8:45 left in the 3rd quarter. but somehow minnesota over seattle (without hasselbeck) is different than san diego over tennessee (without v. young) right?

thanks for the insight...

 

[Oswlek]

if you view the play by play you will see that vince young entered the game in the third quarter with the score 17-0 (chargers ahead). game ended 40-7.

minnesota dominated seattle???? minnesota was winning 17-10 when matt hasselbeck was injured at 8:45 left in the 3rd quarter. but somehow minnesota over seattle (without hasselbeck) is different than san diego over tennessee (without v. young) right?

thanks for the insight...

Uhh....

Considering that one game actively affects the rating and one does not, yes. It is different.

Oh, you're welcome.

 

[DagoTom]

Jamal is ridiculously good. If I was starting a team, I would take him over Merriman. What gives me hope is that NE's interior lineman are very good. If NE has a weakness it is on the edges and they usually protect that by having TE's stay in to block. NE's TEs and RBs are actually quite good at blocking, particularly Daniel Graham.

If we're having trouble penetrating against your interior line you may start seeing some up-the-middle blitzes with Merriman and Phillips showing blitz and then dropping back in coverage. We generally save this tactic for teams with immobile QB's because it can backfire against QB's with escapability. But Wade Phillips has been pretty good at finding ways to get pressure this year. Our pressure doesn't always result in sacks, of course, but we can often disrupt the QB's timing in conjunction with short zones or press-coverage / combo defenses that force the QB to make the right decision very quickly.

 

[Oswlek]

If we're having trouble penetrating against your interior line you may start seeing some up-the-middle blitzes with Merriman and Phillips showing blitz and then dropping back in coverage. We generally save this tactic for teams with immobile QB's because it can backfire against QB's with escapability. But Wade Phillips has been pretty good at finding ways to get pressure this year. Our pressure doesn't always result in sacks, of course, but we can often disrupt the QB's timing in conjunction with short zones or press-coverage / combo defenses that force the QB to make the right decision very quickly.

Techniques like this are why I view the Pitt defense to be a decent frame of reference.

 

[abyzmul]

Do you really believe that a midseason thrashing of Green Bay or Minny (the week after they dominated Seattle) compares in any way to TN with Collins?

if you view the play by play you will see that vince young entered the game in the third quarter with the score 17-0 (chargers ahead). game ended 40-7.

minnesota dominated seattle???? minnesota was winning 17-10 when matt hasselbeck was injured at 8:45 left in the 3rd quarter. but somehow minnesota over seattle (without hasselbeck) is different than san diego over tennessee (without v. young) right?

thanks for the insight...

Uhh....

Considering that one game actively affects the rating and one does not, yes. It is different.

Oh, you're welcome.

nice attempt at the kick-save on that one buddy. too bad you can't back pedal fast enough. your question was regarding if you can compare the charger win over the titans to the viking win over the seahawks. answer: yes. i gave you proof. end of story.

 

[Oswlek]

BTW, what should give SD confidence (not that they need any ) is the fact the NE almost universally plays better the second time they face a QB/coach combo. It just seems as if they need to see guys interact with the NE team to get a complete understanding of how to attack them.

This is actaully something that I am legitimately worried about.

 

[Oswlek]

nice attempt at the kick-save on that one buddy. too bad you can't back pedal fast enough. your question was regarding if you can compare the charger win over the titans to the viking win over the seahawks. answer: yes. i gave you proof. end of story.

I have to ask you again:

Do you understand the figures that I have posted?

It doesn't matter in the least how Minny's win over Seattle compares with the Chargers' win over TN any more than Denver's loss to StL compares with NE's loss to Denver.

One game affects the rankings and one does not. If you don't see that than I just don't know what else to say.

 

[Mooch]

1) wasn't trying to skew facts, wanted to make sure the analysis was fair. i could've ignored it since it worked against the chargers but that wouldn't be right.

2) trend figures are an inaccurate depiction of the two teams.

3) the last 5 games of the season, however, were against much stronger opponents for the chargers than for the patriots. view:

SD last 5 : Buffalo, Denver, KC, Seattle, Arizona
NE last 5 : Detroit, Miami, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee

the only team the patriots faced that had a shot at going to the playoffs were the jags (tenn was a long-shot, and clearly not playoff caliber).

denver, was bumped out by SF.. KC and seattle both made it to the playoffs. so to look at the last few games and to try and compare the results from the chargers to patriots, you don't come anywhere near an accurate depiction of how the two teams are.

new england barely beat detroit and lost to houston.

The decent teams you played down the stretch were slumping mightily when you played them. Denver, KC and Seattle were all riding at least 2 game losing streaks before playing you -- Those teams were ICE COLD.

The Patriots played the hottest team in the league the last week of the season (the Titans had won 6 straight) and blew them out. Then? They played the second hottest team in the league the first week of the playoffs (The Jets). Blew them out too.

 

[csfoster]

The Chargers roster is loaded and their regular season record speaks for itself. However, none of that means squat this week. The Patriots have a proven playoff track record, while the Chargers don't. If the Chargers want to move into the "elite" ranks of the NFL, they need to beat the Patriots. They have home field advantage, are healthy, and have had two weeks to prepare for the game. There are no excuses for them not to win.

Exactly right because there are no excuses and moving into the "elite" ranks is why our preference was to play the Pats this week rather than the Jets or KC.

 

[DagoTom]

Techniques like this are why I view the Pitt defense to be a decent frame of reference.

Are you referencing this year's Steelers or the '04 team that you played in the postseason?

Pittsburgh is probably a decent frame of reference, though I would say that we're much less likely than Pittsburgh to come with an all-out blitz including the SS. We tend to come with one or two guys (leaving 6 in coverage) and rely on those guys to win their individual battles. We're more likely to try to confuse a QB with coverage schemes than blitz schemes, requiring him to move to his second or third option and giving the pressure time to get there.

If you're referencing this year's Steeler team, our defense is better at getting pressure than theirs due, IMO, to some of the individual players we have. We had 22 more sacks than Pittsburgh this year. Pittsburgh also allowed over a 60% completion rate compared to our 57% and we have better corners. The Steelers have a much better SS than we do, though.

 

[DagoTom]

The decent teams you played down the stretch were slumping mightily when you played them. Denver, KC and Seattle were all riding at least 2 game losing streaks before playing you -- Those teams were ICE COLD.

The Patriots played the hottest team in the league the last week of the season (the Titans had won 6 straight) and blew them out. Then? They played the second hottest team in the league the first week of the playoffs (The Jets). Blew them out too.

One of the games Denver lost on their streak was to us, in Mile High, on national TV. In fact, that was one of the "final-straw" games that made Shanny go to Cutler. So if they were "ice cold" it had a lot to do with us.

The Seattle game was just a crap-storm. The Seahawks weren't guaranteed a playoff spot and were playing for their lives. It was pouring rain the entire game and their crowd is probably the loudest in the NFL. Everyone played poorly on our offense in the first three quarters. We had like 6 dropped passes in that stretch which is something we never do. It was just a crap game that we still somehow managed to win.

 

[Oswlek]

Are you referencing this year's Steelers or the '04 team that you played in the postseason?

Pittsburgh is probably a decent frame of reference, though I would say that we're much less likely than Pittsburgh to come with an all-out blitz including the SS. We tend to come with one or two guys (leaving 6 in coverage) and rely on those guys to win their individual battles. We're more likely to try to confuse a QB with coverage schemes than blitz schemes, requiring him to move to his second or third option and giving the pressure time to get there.

If you're referencing this year's Steeler team, our defense is better at getting pressure than theirs due, IMO, to some of the individual players we have. We had 22 more sacks than Pittsburgh this year. Pittsburgh also allowed over a 60% completion rate compared to our 57% and we have better corners. The Steelers have a much better SS than we do, though.

2004 and 2005 are the defenses I am refering to.

Thank you for explaining some of the differences.

 

[psychoPat]

Fascinating discussion.
Owl, you are standing up for yourself right well.

Makes me think that we haven't played such a potent team
since '01.

Sure hope this year's Patriots have as much heart
as did the '01 Patriots!

 

[The-Beast]

We can break the chargers down even further, in the 3 games where our starting defensive unit played they allowed 16 points. But thats too small of a sample.

 

[Oswlek]

We can break the chargers down even further, in the 3 games where our starting defensive unit played they allowed 16 points. But thats too small of a sample.

Who did they play?

 

[AzPatsFan]

i acknowledge your attempt to provide a quality analysis, but there are some gaping holes in your thesis (as well as data inaccuracies).



san diego @ home scores 31.1 vs 21.8, a +9.3 differential
san diego @ home allows 16.5 vs. 18.9, a +2.4 differential (not 3.4)

san diego has also been plagued with key starters missing games due to injury and suspension on defense, but all starters will be healthy for the patriots. review the first few games of the season for the chargers in order to obtain an accurate picture as to what the patriots are in store for.

SD week 1 vs. Oakland
0 PA, 183 total yards (96 passing, 87 rushing), 9 sacks, 0 INT

SD week 2 vs. Tenessee
7 PA (with 3:09 remaining in the 4th), 218 total yards (163 passing, 55 rushing), 0 sacks, 2 INT

SD week 4 vs. Baltimore (week 3 was a bye)
16 PA (intentional safety after punter was hurt and TD with 34 seconds remaining), 214 total yards (158 passing, 56 rushing), 1 sack, 1 INT

to use the statistics that you provided paints an inaccurate picture as to what defense the patriots are going up against. the chargers, when healthy, have one of the best defenses in the league. they have 61 sacks on the season, a punishing run defense, above average corners, and mediocre safeties.

as much as patriot fans will argue using these ppg figures i can assure you that BB and friends would not agree with your skewed statistics. BB knows what he's up against --> the chargers at full strength.

How can you have a good defense that allows over 300 points and yields 4.2 YPC and a Opponents passer rating of 77 ? And all that mediocrity in spite of, & while still getting 61 sacks?

 

[abyzmul]

The decent teams you played down the stretch were slumping mightily when you played them. Denver, KC and Seattle were all riding at least 2 game losing streaks before playing you -- Those teams were ICE COLD.

The Patriots played the hottest team in the league the last week of the season (the Titans had won 6 straight) and blew them out. Then? They played the second hottest team in the league the first week of the playoffs (The Jets). Blew them out too.

i'm sorry you see things that way.. denver, KC, and seattle are definitely stronger than tennessee and the jets. for you to attempt at spinning that in your favor is just idiotic. nice try though.

 

[abyzmul]

How can you have a good defense that allows over 300 points and yields 4.2 YPC and a Opponents passer rating of 77 ? And all that mediocrity in spite of, & while still getting 61 sacks?

when you have the #1 scoring offense, your defense will inherently have more opportunities to give up points because the opposing team will have more possessions. on the other extreme, if you are a low scoring team with high time of possession, your defense will have lower points allowed due to less opponent possessions. instead of looking at points allowed you should be looking at the differences between points & allowed points scored to get a better perspective on the overall performance of the team.

remember when everyone was talking about denver having the stingiest defense? their offense was a time of possession machine.. they grind the clock by pounding their notorious chop blocking running game up and down the field. it takes a long time to score like that though, which is why both their PF and PA are low.

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/standings

SAN DIEGO = 14-2, 492 PF, 303 PA, differential +189
NEW ENGLAND = 12-4, 385 PF, 237 PA, differential +148
NEW YORK JETS = 10-6, 316 PF, 295 PA, differential +21

CHICAGO = 13-3, 427 PF, 255 PA, differential + 172
DENVER = 9-7, 319 PF, 305 PA, differential + 14

just for kicks:

OAKLAND = 2-14, 168 PF, 332 PA, differential -164

hope that answers your question.