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Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by miloofcroton, Feb 22, 2019.

  1. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton On the Game Day Roster

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    Obviously not a big need, but the team is laden with draft picks, and Michel has been an amazing addition but leaves plenty of injury concerns.

    I was just looking at a few guys for fun. The one that really jumped out at me is Alexander Mattison from Boise St. Super explosive and runs hard. He might make a great lightning to Michel's thunder.

    Elijah Holyfield looks pretty solid, for similar reasons to Mattison. Not quite as explosive though.

    I was a big fan of Travis Homer and LJ Scott entering the season, but both were kind of disappointing. I've given up on Scott, but Homer would be a guy you pick up as an UDFA, and then he makes the team, and surprises everyone later on.

    The Alabama guys are solid, but it's hard to evaluate RBs on that team.

    Overall, just looking at what's out there, out of curiosity, and I don't see a ton that catches my eye to be honest.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 20, 2019

  2. ChrisR2223

    ChrisR2223 Pro Bowl Player

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    Great find on the Mattison kid he looks explosive.
     
  3. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton On the Game Day Roster

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    Seems like he lacks moves though. I don't see a lot of jukes or broken tackles, but I could be nitpicking.

    You know who he reminds me of? Aaron Jones, who was the top rated RB in the NFC North last year.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2019
  4. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton On the Game Day Roster

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    Karan Higdon reminds me a lot of Dion Lewis and James White. Would be a very Pats-type pick in the mid rounds.
     
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  5. SBLIII

    SBLIII 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Darwin Thompson is my favorite based on projected value. Terrific playmaker who breaks a lot of tackles
     
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  6. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton On the Game Day Roster

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    Darrell Henderson is a beast. He can be the next Kareem Hunt/Alvin Kamara type. He won't be the first back taken, but he'll probably have the best career.

    The more I watch of his teammate Tony Pollard, the more I'm convinced that he could succeed basically anywhere, sort of like Percy Harvin or Reggie Bush. I don't want to say he's a gadget player though because I've seen him make some great catches. He might be one of the most versatile players in the draft.

    Also, I like the Penn State RB, Miles Sanders. Good size and shiftiness. Runs pretty hard.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 20, 2019
  7. cupofjoe1962

    cupofjoe1962 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I have a feeling we are going to draft Bryce Love with one of our 3rd round picks.

    He is a great talent who would be a 1st round pick if he was not coming off ACL surgery.

    He was a finalist for the Heisman in 2017.

    Yes we are set at RB, but this would be a VALUE pick.
     
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  8. JerseyShore99

    JerseyShore99 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Is Love going to go that high? I'd love Love in the 5, 6, and 7 but not sure about anything before that, probably the best pure rusher in this class as of last time he played
     
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  9. SBLIII

    SBLIII 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I don't think we will consider drafting Love.
     
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  10. Snooky97

    Snooky97 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Love is arguably the best RB in the class. Watch his 2017 tape when he was fully Healthy. He was projected as a mid to late 1st rounder last year but he decided to return to see if he could end up like Barkley in the draft top 10 kinda guy.. sadly he tore his knee up..

    If he’s there in the 6/7 rounds when we are picking I’d love to see him here, he reminds me of Deion Lewis - he has huge potential to be a 3 Down back and would be a good compliment to Sony.
     
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  11. jboston19

    jboston19 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Devine Ozigbo out of Nebraska is a big back that’d do well here. Really like him.
     
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  12. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Snell from Kentucky is a touchdown machine. Which would seem like the perfect compliment to mickel.
     
  13. sircole

    sircole On the Game Day Roster

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  14. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I'm not sure what the takeaway is here? I'm also blinded by sadness over Gronk, so . . . ;)
     
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  15. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton On the Game Day Roster

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    Darrell Henderson -- big play RB! Potential rock star.

    Josh Jacobs -- excellent short to medium range RB that lacks deep speed.

    Tony Pollard -- playmaker.

    Dexter Williams -- good open field runner that sucks in the first 10 yards.

    Trayveon Williams could be a solid immediate starter that someone picks up in the mid rounds. He's an every down back but still paired best with someone that complements him with power running.

    Miles Sanders is a beast in short yardage. Kind of average production otherwise.

    Devine Ozigbo and Darwin Thompson are the only guys on this that stand out and are also guys that I haven't really looked at yet. Stats are great, and brief looks at their highlights say the talent is there. Sleepers!
     
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  16. sircole

    sircole On the Game Day Roster

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    Just a breakdown of carries for some of the RBs in the draft measuring:
    • carries that went over 10+yds%
    • carries that over 20+yds%
    • TD%
    • # and % of carries that converted 3 & short
    • % of third and short conversions that went over 10+ yds
    • RB measurables from the combine.

    I am sad about Gronk too though.:(
     
  17. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton On the Game Day Roster

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    The big play numbers are interesting, but my favorite RB breakdowns are % of runs that go for 0-2 yards, 2-4 yards, 4-6 yards. (Or something of that nature). I think the people that judge a RB on their total ypc have it all wrong because the goal of running the ball is not really to get the most yards. If you wanted to get the most yards, you would pass it.

    There's a website that does these breakdowns on pro RBs, although you have to adjust the stat boundaries manually:

    Running Back Run Catalog

    Running Back Performance Frequencies

    The results are somewhat predictable. The guys who are known as big play finesse guys tend to be not so good at keeping the offense on pace to get first downs.

    All that being said, we need to take these college stats with a grain of salt because so much of running comes down to scheme, blocking, and talent disparity of the opposing teams.
     
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  18. sircole

    sircole On the Game Day Roster

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  19. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Sorry, I should have been clearer. I get all that. I mean, what is he getting at with "Never just use raw stats.. Who/what stands out?"

    Is he trying to disprove a narrative? Or is he just providing info?
     
  20. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton On the Game Day Roster

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    There's so much in there. My favorite stuff is the tendency breakdowns for offense, where it shows snap counts by formation and personnel. I did a bunch of analysis on that a while a go to extract statistical categories for the offensive strategies in the NFL instead of using something like a coaching tree or what the reputation of a team is. I also did that for defense, but I needed other sources.
     

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