Ringer on NE player acquisition strategies

[SEA_Pat]

Another point I'd make about UDFAs is that we get a lot of good ones it seems, guys who were expected to be drafted but choose to sign here and either make the team or catch on at their next destination.

It seems almost counter-intuitive - why sign with the most loaded team in the league instead of a weak team where your odds would appear to be higher? I think the UDFAs have seen over and over again that if you outplay other guys, you'll get a shot here whereas in other places if it's a close call they'll keep the guy they drafted because they don't want to be seen as having made a mistake. The Patriots are clearly a meritocracy that values guys who work hard and are dedicated to football.

If that's your UDFA profile, you want to sign here because while competition is high, it's fair. In addition, if you're cut from the Patriots, it's probably looked at as less damaging to your rep anyway since it's not like you've been cut by the Browns or Jags.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

The move back from 64 to 72 is worth 40 value points - equivalent to the 132nd overall pick - according to the old trade value chart. According to the new AV trade value chart, this trade down is worth o.7 points, the equivalent of the 204th pick.

Assuming that Ealy is a one-year rental, and given the cap situation heading into 2018 I would think he is, then he stands to net the team a comp pick.

If Ealy replicates Mingo's role on the team (core STer with minimal contribution to the defense), then signs elsewhere, the team maybe nets a 7th round comp pick. In this situation, Ealy costs the equivalent of a mid 7th round pick according to the old chart. The cost is off the AV chart because it is so low.

If Ealy performs similarly to Sheard then signs elsewhere - probably the most likely scenario - then the team nets a comp pick in the 4th to 5th round range. In this case, you get a year of Ealy for free according to the old chart, and gain the equivalent of a low 5th according to the AV chart.

If Ealy has a Mark Anderson 2011 kind of year, posting double digit sacks while defenses load up against Flowers, he signs a big money deal and the Pats get a 3rd round comp pick. In this case, the Patriots are getting a year of star play and earning dollars to the penny in draft value.

This move gets lost in the hype of Gilmore, Cooks, Butler and Garoppolo, but it could end up the best value trade of the Belichick era.

Excellent points.

And I'm still scratching my head over this from Carolina's perspective.

Fellow Panthers DE Charles Johnson had 4 sacks, and got re-signed for 2 years, $9M. He's much older obviously, but if he's an asset, why not Ealy for less than $1M?

Sheard has had more production than Ealy at times, but both had 5 sacks last year. Sheard just signed a 3-year, $25.5M deal. Chris Long had 4 sacks last season and got a 2-year, $4.5M deal.

But the Panthers traded away a 25-year old pass rusher who has 4 or 5 sacks a year. Not a star, but a solid player. He's making less than $1M this season. It couldn't have been for salary cap reasons. And was a year of solid value from Ealy really worth the equivalent of a late 6th-round pick for the Panthers, especially if he could have gotten them a potential comp pick based on the same scenarios you outlined?

It makes no sense for Carolina to do this, and other teams seem to be okay with it, so I'm glad BB is taking advantage of it while he can.

 

[slam]

I agree. It's unimaginable to me that Carolina couldn't shop around and get something better than the Pats offer. A conditional 5th? A trade up two rounds instead of 1/2 round? And yet, evidence suggests that this was the only offer they got.

Even if Ealy totally busts as a player this year, well, you only paid that slight trade down and a small amount of money to get him.

 

[luuked]

Excellent points.

And I'm still scratching my head over this from Carolina's perspective.

Fellow Panthers DE Charles Johnson had 4 sacks, and got re-signed for 2 years, $9M. He's much older obviously, but if he's an asset, why not Ealy for less than $1M?

Sheard has had more production than Ealy at times, but both had 5 sacks last year. Sheard just signed a 3-year, $25.5M deal. Chris Long had 4 sacks last season and got a 2-year, $4.5M deal.

But the Panthers traded away a 25-year old pass rusher who has 4 or 5 sacks a year. Not a star, but a solid player. He's making less than $1M this season. It couldn't have been for salary cap reasons. And was a year of solid value from Ealy really worth the equivalent of a late 6th-round pick for the Panthers, especially if he could have gotten them a potential comp pick based on the same scenarios you outlined?

It makes no sense for Carolina to do this, and other teams seem to be okay with it, so I'm glad BB is taking advantage of it while he can.

It makes all the sense in the world for the Panthers to do the trade. Why ? Because they had already decided to cut him at that point.

So the question really is not so much why would Carolina trade him for so little and more about why did they decide to move on. And the mistake I think you are doing here is that you are comparing Ealy in terms of game stats to other players. Now obviously that's all you (and everyone outside the Panthers org) can do because we are not privy what happens every day during the season in practice. But that's the point. Ealy has been around that coaching staff for a couple of years on an almost daily basis outside the offseason.

So most probably they have gotten to the point where they think he can't be coached up more. Maybe it is his fault or maybe their coaching just doesn't get to him but for all intents and purposes they have come to the conclusion that the opportunity cost of him eating up reps and a roster spot is not worth it.

Many people make the mistake of getting hung up on the spot players get drafted and assume that this means that there is some hidden potential still in them, when in reality the difference between a first round pick and a fourth round pick very often is just a full year of development, strength & conditioning and technique refinement.

 

[stinkypete]

A side note about Ealy. Before the 2014 draft I wanted the team to trade out of round 1, then move up from their second round slot, to draft two if Easley, VanNoy and Ealy.

Looks like I finally got what I wanted.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

It makes all the sense in the world for the Panthers to do the trade. Why ? Because they had already decided to cut him at that point.

So the question really is not so much why would Carolina trade him for so little and more about why did they decide to move on. And the mistake I think you are doing here is that you are comparing Ealy in terms of game stats to other players. Now obviously that's all you (and everyone outside the Panthers org) can do because we are not privy what happens every day during the season in practice. But that's the point. Ealy has been around that coaching staff for a couple of years on an almost daily basis outside the offseason.

So most probably they have gotten to the point where they think he can't be coached up more. Maybe it is his fault or maybe their coaching just doesn't get to him but for all intents and purposes they have come to the conclusion that the opportunity cost of him eating up reps and a roster spot is not worth it.

Many people make the mistake of getting hung up on the spot players get drafted and assume that this means that there is some hidden potential still in them, when in reality the difference between a first round pick and a fourth round pick very often is just a full year of development, strength & conditioning and technique refinement.

I understand the points you're trying to make, generally speaking. In some scenarios, I might even agree with them. But I disagree about this specific instance.

I agree that the Panthers had already decided they would cut him. The question is why. And maybe there are legit reasons.

But opportunity cost/roster spot don't apply here. His cap hit is ridiculously low at around $1.1M (and they'll now eat around $250K in dead money), and roster spots are abundant right now at the fully-expanded 90 spots. Over 2 months after the trade, Carolina still had 5 open roster spots before rookie mini-camp started.

He was a late 2nd-round pick (60th overall) so I understand the point that some may be attached to his original valuation. But as a role player who played less than 60% of defensive snaps for Carolina and generated some pass rush, combined with his friendly contract and a final season that may make him eligible for a comp pick, I just don't see the value being similar to the value of a late 6th-round pick like this trade generated.

Unless there's something off the field or in the locker room, this deal simply makes no sense.

 

[Oswlek]

Ron Rivera hinted strongly that Ealy wasn't buying into their program.

 

[TommyD4207]

Ron Rivera hinted strongly that Ealy wasn't buying into their program.

To be fair, last year, nobody on that team bought into Rivera's program.

 

[DarrylS]

IMO BB has so much equity with this franchise he is beyond reproach..

One of the smartest things that Kraft did was hand over the reigns of this franchise and leave it in competent hands..

BB has rare license without oversight to run this team.. consider all the meddling owners in the NFL..

 

[luuked]

But opportunity cost/roster spot don't apply here. His cap hit is ridiculously low at around $1.1M (and they'll now eat around $250K in dead money), and roster spots are abundant right now at the fully-expanded 90 spots. Over 2 months after the trade, Carolina still had 5 open roster spots before rookie mini-camp started.

Spots might be abundant but reps and individual coaching is not. Carolina had already decided to move on -- for whatever reason -- so the entire move makes sense. Which is why nobody should assume that Ealy will make it through training camp cuts. Hopefully the change in environment / coaching will make a difference but being send packing by a team at this point in the season is a major red flag.

 

[ChessToCheckers]

Spots might be abundant but reps and individual coaching is not. Carolina had already decided to move on -- for whatever reason -- so the entire move makes sense. Which is why nobody should assume that Ealy will make it through training camp cuts. Hopefully the change in environment / coaching will make a difference but being send packing by a team at this point in the season is a major red flag.

All interesting points. IIRC, BB has often said that some players do better in other systems and that a fresh start on another team can make a difference.

Thanks to this thread, I'll be watching Ealy this year closer than I would normally have. Great stuff!

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Spots might be abundant but reps and individual coaching is not. Carolina had already decided to move on -- for whatever reason -- so the entire move makes sense. Which is why nobody should assume that Ealy will make it through training camp cuts. Hopefully the change in environment / coaching will make a difference but being send packing by a team at this point in the season is a major red flag.

I get what you're saying, they decided to cut bait, so they got something instead of nothing. But I disagree they had to cut bait. They could have coached through it or worked through it. Lots of awkward situations get resolved if people are willing to focus time and attention to it.

Josh Norman could have been a potential distraction, so they cut him. But that could have resolved itself. We've seen that with Mankins and Wilfork here. Situations that seem so far down the road can actually be turned around if people are willing to be patient and reasonable.

So I don't see it as a red flag that the Panthers moved him at this time. I think that speaks more to their own internal issues than anything else.

And Ealy doesn't have to turn out to be a good player for this deal to be worth it. It's classic buy low, as well as low-risk, high-reward.

If he busts, you're out maybe $500K max if he makes the roster to start the year, or else costs you nothing.

If he's okay, you got a 25-year old situational pass rusher who has flashed at times under a very reasonable contract.

If he is great, you've hit the lottery and can cash out with a potential comp pick.

You didn't lose a pick. You gave up a bit of draft value. If you make this deal 10 times and fail 7 times, the 3 times you hit still make it worth doing.

 

[Wheelman]

To be fair, last year, nobody on that team bought into Rivera's program.

I'm not surprised. After Rivera pouting how they should have been able to open up at home to celebrate their Superbowl Loss. What a loser! And for him to double down this off season. Shameful. I'd want to get out of that loser club as quick as I could if I were a player.