Random thought about drafting QBs

[slam]

There really are QB needy franchises and GMs of such teams who missed out on drafting the following players:

2017 Mahomes and Watson (8 and 10)
2018 Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (7 and 32)
2020 Justin Herbert (6), throw in Jalen Hurts 2nd round if you're so inclined.
2021 Mac Jones (15)

Fans of Jets, Giants, Bears, Panthers, Broncos, Dolphins, Colts must want to cry.

 

[zimmy]

It's sort of true but equally those drafts had some high profile busts at QB that can really set you back so you really need to be sure in your evaluation. People talk now as if Mahomes, Allen and Jackson were can't miss prospects but the truth is that they were raw and developmental with upside - and all have paid off big time. It seems like 50% of first round QBs bust every year so the stats say that 2 or 3 of the 5 taken in 2021 will also bust - so its not looking good for Zach Wilson et al.

2017: Trubisky
2018: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield?
2019: Jones, Haskins
2020: Love, Tua?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Lynch and Shanahan will be fired

 

[slam]

I can understand and sympathize with the teams that went and drafted the wrong guy. They tried but it didn't pan out. The teams that never even tried drafting one when they were available baffle me. Every year for the past four years I'm convinced the Broncos will draft a top 10 QB and, nope, gonna give Drew Lock a shot again.

Lynch and Shanahan will be fired

What if the stories are true that Shanahan was talked out of drafting Mac Jones by everyone else, though? Does he get more cred for having the right evaluation or less because he wouldn't stake his rep on drafting Mac at 3 despite intense draftnik criticism?

 

[Deus Irae]

The teams that never even tried drafting one when they were available baffle me.

You want to know why it happens? I'll give you a shining example of the why of it: Tim Tebow.


In 2010, the Broncos needed a QB. The team's then HC and GM maneuvered around enough to, effectively, gain a second, "free" first round pick. But they had the bad luck of doing it in a terrible QB year.



And, despite having an excellent overall draft that year,



McDaniels get crushed, to this day, for gambling on the QB who was there, even though it was with a practically free pick.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I can understand and sympathize with the teams that went and drafted the wrong guy. They tried but it didn't pan out. The teams that never even tried drafting one when they were available baffle me.

What about a team that picks Darnold #3 overall followed by Wilson at #2 overall? You are sympathizing with the NY JETE? I think that is HILARIOUS.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

You want to know why it happens? I'll give you a shining example of the why of it: Tim Tebow.


In 2010, the Broncos needed a QB. The team's then HC and GM maneuvered around enough to, effectively, gain a second, "free" first round pick. But they had the bad luck of doing it in a terrible QB year.

View attachment 37714

And, despite having an excellent overall draft that year,

View attachment 37715

McDaniels get crushed, to this day, for gambling on the QB who was there, even though it was with a practically free pick.

It wasn't a "free" pick. Denver traded 3 picks to move up.
//

"Tim Tebow, McDaniels said, "has all the traits you're looking for in terms of toughness, competitiveness, he's intelligent, he's won a lot of games, he's a leader, he works hard, he's got all the intangibles you look for in a player at that position. The Broncos traded three picks to Baltimore for the Ravens' first-round pick, then took Tebow at No. 25 "

Broncos deal three draft picks to move up, take Tebow in first round

The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.

www.nfl.com

 

[PF_SU]

It wasn't a "free" pick. Denver traded 3 picks to move up.

Deus describes it as "free" because of all the wheeling and dealing the Broncos did to increase the number of picks in that draft, which started a year earlier when they dealt Jay Cutler to Chicago and among the return was the Bears' 2010 first rounder, which ended up 11th overall. To recap all the subsequent trades the Broncos did as a result of that pick:

11th overall - dealt to the 49ers for 13th overall and 113th overall
13th overall - dealt to the Eagles for 24th overall, 70th overall, 87th overall
24th overall and 113th overall - dealt to Patriots for 22nd overall

So in the end, they used the 11th overall pick and ended up with the 22nd overall, the 70th overall and the 87th overall.

Additionally, by trading Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins prior to the draft the Broncos held the 43rd overall pick in addition to the 45th overall pick, meaning they had 3 extra picks in that draft within the top 100.

After picking Demaryius Thomas at 22, the Broncos still held the following picks in rounds 2 through 4:

43rd overall
45th overall
70th overall
80th overall
87th overall
114th overall

They had more than enough picks around in those rounds to afford trading 43, 70 and 114 to move back into the 1st. They just blew it by using it on the wrong player.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Deus describes it as "free" because of all the wheeling and dealing the Broncos did to increase the number of picks in that draft, which started a year earlier when they dealt Jay Cutler to Chicago and among the return was the Bears' 2010 first rounder, which ended up 11th overall. To recap all the subsequent trades the Broncos did as a result of that pick:

11th overall - dealt to the 49ers for 13th overall and 113th overall
13th overall - dealt to the Eagles for 24th overall, 70th overall, 87th overall
24th overall and 113th overall - dealt to Patriots for 22nd overall

So in the end, they used the 11th overall pick and ended up with the 22nd overall, the 70th overall and the 87th overall.

Additionally, by trading Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins prior to the draft the Broncos held the 43rd overall pick in addition to the 45th overall pick, meaning they had 3 extra picks in that draft within the top 100.

After picking Demaryius Thomas at 22, the Broncos still held the following picks in rounds 2 through 4:

43rd overall
45th overall
70th overall
80th overall
87th overall
114th overall

They had more than enough picks around in those rounds to afford trading 43, 70 and 114 to move back into the 1st. They just blew it by using it on the wrong player.

Thanks. A lot of words to say the Broncos went 6-22 with McD, who thought Tim Tebow was a 1st rounder, and explains why the Pats thought NKeal Harry, Michel, Chad Jackson, Laurence Maroney were 1st rounders.

And it's not a "free" pick if you had to trade away an all pro in Brandon Marshall and consider that "free". This is some bad john carroll math right there.


.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Its hard to say that the Pats were smarter than the other teams who took QBs in the first rd last year, because of the fact that the Pats picked last out of those teams. Who knows who they actually wanted? I think it was Mac the whole time, but maybe they were pissed when Chicago took Fields?

I thought that Lawrence was the only true talent available last year. I thought that Mac could be a decent NFL QB. I had no confidence in the other three (1 guy that played 11 games from Div 2, a Mountain West QB, and an Ohio St. QB).

I know teams will never admit it, but they might be greatful to the Jetes of the world for taking awful QBs off the board before they have to pick.

 

[farn]

There really are QB needy franchises and GMs of such teams who missed out on drafting the following players:

2017 Mahomes and Watson (8 and 10)
2018 Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (7 and 32)
2020 Justin Herbert (6), throw in Jalen Hurts 2nd round if you're so inclined.
2021 Mac Jones (15)

Fans of Jets, Giants, Bears, Panthers, Broncos, Dolphins, Colts must want to cry.

I guess. But on this day, in 2021, how many of those do you WANT ? They are all above avg/to very good, but I don’t want Watson - for sure. Mahomes I do want, but he isn’t quite the TOURCH bearer a poster once suggested. Allen & Jackson are both talented, yet have never sniffed the SB. Both QBs are flawed and their teams have confounding losses this month. Herbert is the most overrated player since Andrew Luck, but he might amount to something. I can’t see SBs in Hurts’ future…

The only one on that list you can definitely ‘win because of’ is Mahomes. And he’s been - at times - a WTF INT machine.

(devil’s advocate signing out)

 

[Pats2000]

Its hard to say that the Pats were smarter than the other teams who took QBs in the first rd last year, because of the fact that the Pats picked last out of those teams. Who knows who they actually wanted? I think it was Mac the whole time, but maybe they were pissed when Chicago took Fields?

I thought that Lawrence was the only true talent available last year. I thought that Mac could be a decent NFL QB. I had no confidence in the other three (1 guy that played 11 games from Div 2, a Mountain West QB, and an Ohio St. QB).

I know teams will never admit it, but they might be greatful to the Jetes of the world for taking awful QBs off the board before they have to pick.

The whole 5 seconds the Pats took to make the pick tells you where they had the guy graded. They didn't think, ponder, or discuss it. Pats are in the board, 5 seconds later the pick was in. They knew exactly who they wanted

 

[Le Numéro Douze]

Maybe, just maybe, it is not necessarily about WHO you draft, but about WHO develops your QB.

Too many young QBs are thrown into the fire expected to save a franchise. Some can get over the hump and develop nicely, most can't.

I think you need a good situation to properly develop. Like, look at the Jets. Wilson is like the 3rd high-drafted QB they will destroy in 10 years... or is it the 4th? At some point, it is not about who they pick, but more about how they develop them.

Mahomes was a risky pick at the time, but he landed in a good place for him, sat for a year and was groomed by Andy Reid who is a great offensive coach.

Jackson sat at the beginning and then Harbaugh crafted an offense to suit his strength. Sure, it is a high-school level offense and it relies on Lamar being the best athlete in the league, but it is still why he is successful.

Josh Allen struggled at first and was thought to be a bust. Buffalo got its **** together, surrounded him and helped him reach the next level.

 

[borg]

Its hard to say that the Pats were smarter than the other teams who took QBs in the first rd last year, because of the fact that the Pats picked last out of those teams. Who knows who they actually wanted? I think it was Mac the whole time, but maybe they were pissed when Chicago took Fields?

My "guy" who is a better than a blue check mark source fed me two bits of info this year.....

A month before the draft I was told "Jimmy G made sense"

But after the Niners let it be known Jimmy G was staying put, NE finalized its draft plans.

An hour before NE selected at #15, I got word.... (refer to links below)
Post #736
DRAFT DAY DISCUSSION - OFFICIAL 2021 NFL DRAFT - ROUND 1 - Discussion Thread | Page 37 | New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard
Post #760
DRAFT DAY DISCUSSION - OFFICIAL 2021 NFL DRAFT - ROUND 1 - Discussion Thread | Page 38 | New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard

"Plan A....Mac...and NE was willing to trade up a slot or two to secure him"
"Plan B.....OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern" (drafted at #13 by LAC)
"DT Micah Parsons was removed from their board" (drafted at #12 DAL)
"If Mac was gone, NE would target QB David Mills in round 2, and move up if they felt they had to" (drafted 3rd rd TEX)

Regarding "who knows who they actually wanted at QB" ......I have no idea how NE would have drafted if say NE had the #1 pick.
I do know their "Plan A" is currently under center after the team kicked Superman to the curb during preseason.

I can infer NE was very comfortable selecting Mac and comfortable with their draft day strategy and ability to execute their plan because at no time during or after the draft did we hear "NE was trying to move up in round 1"

 

[slam]

I guess. But on this day, in 2021, how many of those do you WANT ? They are all above avg/to very good, but I don’t want Watson - for sure. Mahomes I do want, but he isn’t quite the TOURCH bearer a poster once suggested. Allen & Jackson are both talented, yet have never sniffed the SB. Both QBs are flawed and their teams have confounding losses this month. Herbert is the most overrated player since Andrew Luck, but he might amount to something. I can’t see SBs in Hurts’ future…

The only one on that list you can definitely ‘win because of’ is Mahomes. And he’s been - at times - a WTF INT machine.

(devil’s advocate signing out)

There’s being conservative with your picks, and then there’s rolling into a season with Sam Darnold 2021 as your #1 QB when you had options.