Rams Defense Since Week 10

[Belichick8384]

Going into the home game vs KC, LA's defense looked like this:

Allowing
23.1 pts/game
233.1 Pass yds/game
122.1 Rush yds/game

Going into that game, KC's offense looked like this:

35.3 pts/game
410.7 Pass yds/game
117.6 Rush yds/game

Against KC they allowed

51 pts
448 Pass yds
98 Rush yds
27 1st downs
KC was 5/10 on 3rd down and 1/1 on 4th down
Intercepted Mahomes 3x
Recovered 2 forced fumbles
Turnover differential was +3 in favour of LA

Against the #1 offense this is to be expected. And these numbers turned out to be outliers compared to the numbers that followed. The numbers KC put up are consistent or exceed what LA's defense was shown to be capable of holding to. Their opponents after their bye week weren't exactly high powered offenses. They looked like this:

@DET (4-7) (won)
Came in with:
21.64 pts/game
241.36 Pass yds/game
101.36 Rush yds/game

@CHI (8-4) (lost)
Came in with:
28.67 pts/game
236.17 Pass yds/game
115.42 Rush yds/game

vsPHI (6-7) (lost)
Came in with:
21.62 pts/game
254.77 Pass yds/game
101.15 Rush yds/game

@ARI (3-11) (won)
Came in with:
13.71 pts/game
160.79 Pass yds/game
82.36 Rush yds/game

vsSF (4-11) (won)
Came in with:
20.67 pts/game
240.2 Pass yds/game
118.33 Rush yds/game

Their best opponents in this stretch beat them. And so in these 5 final games of the regular season LA looked like this:

20.4 pts/game
200.2 Pass yds/game
127.6 Rush yds/game

Their run D slipped while everything else seemed to improve. But then in the playoffs:

vsDAL
Allowed:
22 pts (Dallas game in with 18.65/g)
258 Pass yds (Dallas came in with 192.94/g)
50 Rush yds (Dallas came in with 112.53/g)

That could just be an outlier game. But its consistent with their next game in New Orleans

@NO
23 Pts (NO came in with 28.29/g)
242 Pass yds (NO came in with 223.53/g)
48 Rush Yds (NO came in with 116.29/g)

The biggest thing I noticed is that they stepped up their run D. But their pass D seems pretty solid as well. I know they don't rank very high with the rest on the whole year but recently it does seem like they've only gotten better and better. I wonder how the Pats plan to get around their newly improved defense. We have Michel, White, and Burkhead with Develin to help. I wonder if this fully healthy Pats team can run past their D line with better success than LA's last two opponents.

I think its safe to say if we can get over 75 yds rushing along with a successful passing game we will be alright. But another thing I haven't mentioned yet is the INTs the Rams D has been getting. In the last 6 games of the regular season they've amassed 11 INTs. And only 1 so far this post season. Brady and his recievers gotta stay sharp, especially after giving up 2 (almost 3) against a worse defense.

I will say, though, that in the 2 games they lost in the final stretch, they lost the turnover battle in each despite getting plenty of their own. That will be crucial. Interesting to note about that, last week was NE's 3rd game on the whole year without a turnover. LA has turned the ball over quite a fair amount this year, so hopefully the NE can capitalise on that and make LA turn it over a few times.

 

[JMC00]

And i'll say that defense since that Chiefs game hasn't played anything like how the Pats have been playing on offense the last few weeks

Pats just put up 41 & 37 in playoff games and they could have easily had 50 against the Chargers if they wanted to. They were basically calling preseason scrimmage plays for much of the 2nd half

 

[ALP]

did they do anything to sell out more to defend the run in the playoffs?

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Everyone was saying the Chiefs had an "improved" defense heading into last Sunday too....

 

[Belichick8384]

And i'll say that defense since that Chiefs game hasn't played anything like how the Pats have been playing on offense the last few weeks

Pats just put up 41 & 37 in playoff games and they could have easily had 50 against the Chargers if they wanted to. They were basically calling preseason scrimmage plays for much of the 2nd half

You're right there, we're the best offense they've played since KC (with a better defense!). I'm just saying the Rams' defense is better than KC's and they've got a new gameplan on stopping the run. And they do seem to have a way with getting turnovers. Not that their offense hasn't been prone to turning it over. I think the better of the two defenses wins this game, not the better of the two offenses.

Everyone was saying the Chiefs had an "improved" defense heading into last Sunday too....

I mean, that shouldn't mean we should overlook them either. I sure hope the actual Patriots aren't as arrogant about their D as you guys are being

 

[Belichick8384]

Interesting stat sbout LAR's defensive front:
In their first 10 games they recorded 26 sacks. In their last 6 games, just 15 sacks (12 since their BYE). Against their 2 best opponents (CHI, PHI) just 1 sack. In the post season the Rams have recorded 4 sacks. Since week 10, Rams have sacked opposing QBs 19 times; 16 times since their BYE.

Their defensive pressure on QBs is starting to fade....

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Interesting stat sbout LAR's defensive front:
In their first 10 games they recorded 26 sacks. In their last 6 games, just 15 sacks (12 since their BYE). Against their 2 best opponents (CHI, PHI) just 1 sack. In the post season the Rams have recorded 4 sacks. Since week 10, Rams have sacked opposing QBs 19 times; 16 times since their BYE.

Their defensive pressure on QBs is starting to fade....

So they averaged 2.6 sacks per game for 10 games, 2.5 sacks per game since then with a marginally lower sack rate against good teams. I'm not convinced that is a trend that we can take to the bank.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

And i'll say that defense since that Chiefs game hasn't played anything like how the Pats have been playing on offense the last few weeks

Pats just put up 41 & 37 in playoff games and they could have easily had 50 against the Chargers if they wanted to. They were basically calling preseason scrimmage plays for much of the 2nd half

They could have put more than 40 on KC to

 

[Belichick8384]

So they averaged 2.6 sacks per game for 10 games, 2.5 sacks per game since then with a marginally lower sack rate against good teams. I'm not convinced that is a trend that we can take to the bank.

True. But compared to the Patriots' sack trend, doesn't bode well for the Rams; especially considering the Rams O line have given up 34 sacks (15 since week 10) and the Pats O line have given up just 21 (only 5 since week 10).

Comparitively, Pats are doing much better on this front and have improved better recently than the Rams

 

[pencilneckgeek]

I agree that the Pats' pass rush could be a difference maker in this game (It's fun to be able to say that again), but Suh and Donald are beasts and could make Brady very uncomfortable for parts of the game with their inside pressure.

 

[Belichick8384]

I agree that the Pats' pass rush could be a difference maker in this game (It's fun to be able to say that again), but Suh and Donald are beasts and could make Brady very uncomfortable for parts of the game with their inside pressure.

Guess it depends on how the O line does. They held up pretty well these last couple weeks, and even KC's "playmakers" were unable to get there. I sure hope the O line is ready to go lights out one more time. Would help if Brady is comfortable and alert if someone gets through. He is lightning quick when he knows someone's closing in.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

The Pat's haven't given up 100 yards rushing in BOTH playoff games combined. They're both playing well going into this game, that's how they got here. I still think easy Pat's win and haven't felt this for a long time.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I also think the Pats are going to win but also have lingering questions that will be answered Sunday.

Yep, Gurley has been held in check and injured etc. But he’s still Todd Gurley. Can they stop him at the point of attack and limit his damage out of the backfield receiving?

The Rams have given up less than a hundred Yards combined to Elliot and Kamara, two of the best backs in the league. Can Michel and White break their recent two game trend? This is a defense that was a sieve vs the run all season. Not sure what to make of their run stopping ability.

Can Andrews play the way he has to vs Donald? Everything relies on that offensive line Sunday. As the Giants before and the Titans this season proved, if Brady can’t step up in the pocket he is vulnerable.

Those are my lingering doubts, what ifs that need to be dealt with by the Pats.

Despite those, Confident that they will be able to run to the outside, Gronk is going to have a game we have not seen in a while. 100+yards and 2 TD’s. They got noone who can cover him and I’d love for Talib to try. Just opens up Pandoras box for the receivers.

 

[BobDigital]

It's clear the Rams defense has improved, but I don't think it has improved as much as people tend to think. Clearly they are a better team with Talib but it isn't night and day like the stats indicate. The issue with the NFL is the sample size is small and you need to look very closely at what you are looking at while also almost disregarding outliers that will mess with the sample size too much.

Lets look at the Rams from week 13 on (Since they've gotten back Talib. So right after their bye).

Lions - 20.3PPG, 25th overall. They were held to 16. By this point they had already traded Tate (their #1 weapon) and have become one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Since trading Tate they have scored. 14, 9, 22, 20 16, 16,17, 13, 9 and 31 (against GB who clearly had given up). It's hard to call giving up ONLY 16 points against this offense proof of anything. Verdict: Average/Wash

Bears - 26.3PPG, 9th overall. They were held to 15 points. On the surface this looks like a very good defensive game for the Rams. But a low score doesn't always mean good defense. Sometimes it's just the tempo of the game and other factors. The fact the Rams were held to 6 points caused the Bears to not lean on their shaky QB and play a very conservative style. While the Bears PPG is high, much of that has to do with their defense giving their offenses chances and scoring points by themselves (They capitalized for only 3 in this game though). It's kind of like when the Jags had the 5th best offense last year with 26.1PPG. No one would mistake them for a good offense. The Bears are structured the same. They scored 7 defensive TDs and had lead the league in take aways with 36. The Bears ran more than they passed and took the ball pretty much completely out of the QBs hands late in the game. Their QB didn't attempt another pass after his last interception with about 19 minutes left. This was simply the Bears saying "We don't believe you can score 9 points on us. We will run and punt and dare you to prove us wrong." This was arguably the best defensive performance of the Rams and some of it had to do with how badly their offense was beaten. The Bears offense only played about 2/3rds a game. Verdict: Pretty Good/Average

Eagles - 22.9PPG, 18th overall. They scored 3o points. So okay. Not a good day for the Rams.
It should be pointed out the Eagles were a bit hot offensively during this stretch so this isn't as bad as it looks on the surface. Verdict: Pretty Bad/Average

Airzona - 14.1PPG 32nd overall - They scored 9 points. You held the worst offense in the NFL to 9 points. I mean. You held them below their average but what can that really tell us? I guess good job? But I don't see what this has to do with anything. This isn't evidence for if they are good or bad either way really. If they were held out of the endzone I may give your D credit. But they weren't. All the points were scored during meaningful snaps. Verdict: Average/Wash

SF - 21.4PPG 21st overall - They scored 32 points but that is a bit misleading. They were kind of playing catch up all day and got some garbage points at the end. IDK if anything good or bad can be drawn from this. It can be said though until the 4th quarter SF was on their usual pace offensively with 17 points in 3 quarters but even that be misleading. I don't think any positive nor negative conclusions can be made here. Verdict: Average/Wash

How about the playoffs?

Dal - 21.2PPG 22nd overall -They scored 22 and no, none of it was garbage time IMO. You don't let a team score just cause you think you will get the onside kick. So Dallas did what they usually do on offense. In fact you could argue they did better; seeing as they only had the ball for 24 minutes due to their D getting run over so badly. It was an okay day for the Rams D. Not really an impressive or unimpressive performance IMO. Verdict: Average/Wash

NO - 31.5PPG 3rd overall - They were held to 23 points. Clearly to me this is the Rams best performance in their Talib run. The Bears were the only other game I'd give them credit for as a good defensive game but even that is questionable. However I think we need to pump the breaks here a bit. NO while a good offense had some issues in the later part of the season. After week 11 in which they torched the Eagles for 48 points they score 31, 10, 29, 12, 31 (I won't count week 17) and 20 in the Divisional Round. For a top offense that is pretty inconsistent. Something was happening there. Maybe it was injuries to their OL along with other things. In that stretch going into the NFCCG they averaged 22.1PPG. Some good games and some bad ones. I think maybe it had to do with their offense being figured out as pretty much a 1 WR show with Karama out of the backfield. The lack of consistency here is concerning. It is also worth pointing out at the end of this game they were held to a FG instead of a TD in large part due to an uncalled PI (not to mention a number of other times the Rams got away with holding). Assuming the Rams found a way to tie up the game it would have been a 27-30 OT win if the Rams answer. In any case while I think this is a good defensive performance, we need to take into account the facts. NO was having issues offensively at this time, and were injured on the OL, and there are points the Saints (maybe) should rightfully have had if a certain call was made. Verdict: Pretty Good/Average

So what is the final verdict? 7 defensive games in our pool. 2 Pretty Good/Average, 4 Washes/Average and 1 pretty bad/average. Looks like an average D to me.

 

[ralmat55]

As much as we’re conditioned to say the opposite, injuries both in terms of players being out or playing at a reduced capacity are significant factors in the performance of teams and the outcome of games.

Truth is both the Cowboys and Saints offensive lines were dealing with the effect of injuries and both of those offenses are very reliant on superior OL play to be effective. Dak Prescott was Dak Prescott and Drew Brees looked rather pedestrian with a leaky OL and no healthy TEs.

Because of this, the Rams defense has really not been tested by a good healthy offense since they lost to Philly at home.

We’ll see, but it’s more likely the poor Rams’ regular season run defense will return facing a team with a good and healthy OL supported ably by an excellent fullback and two of the best blocking TEs in the NFL.

 

[RobertWeathers]

They could have put more than 40 on KC to

Yep.

If only our system, caretaker, unathletic QB hadn't thrown a pick in the EZ

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Interesting stat sbout LAR's defensive front:
In their first 10 games they recorded 26 sacks. In their last 6 games, just 15 sacks (12 since their BYE). Against their 2 best opponents (CHI, PHI) just 1 sack. In the post season the Rams have recorded 4 sacks. Since week 10, Rams have sacked opposing QBs 19 times; 16 times since their BYE.

Their defensive pressure on QBs is starting to fade....

Sounds like Donald and Suh clamped down on the run against Dallas and NO and stopped chasing sacks. Not sure this is good for us.

.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Yep.

If only our system, caretaker, unathletic QB hadn't thrown a pick in the EZ

Speaking of INTs, Brady’s alwayd good for at least one every super bowl

 

[BTTA]

Yep.

If only our system, caretaker, unathletic QB hadn't thrown a pick in the EZ

I think he just doesn't see very well anymore.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Speaking of INTs, Brady’s alwayd good for at least one every super bowl

Yea lemme think...
0 last year
1 atl
2 sea
1 in 2 games vs Gints
0 in 04
1 03
0 in 01

Not too bad especially with all those throws.