The question, from Quinn's perspective, is whether the "lowball" is more than the "highball" he'd get at a lower draft position. In the NFL, the players are paid based on the slot in which they are drafted. At the top of round one, the drop from No. 1 to, say, No. 7 is steep.
So if Quinn isn't the No. 1 pick and if he ends up being picked by the Vikings at No. 7, the question is whether the Raiders' offer is worth more than what Quinn would get at No. 7. If it is, he should take the Raiders' offer -- especially since being the No. 1 overall pick would enhance (we believe) his off-field earning potential.
But there are some problems with this analysis. First, agent Tom Condon would never allow Quinn to take a lowball offer at No. 1, since the magnitude of the Quinn deal would then be used against Condon in future recruiting efforts by agents who would say to the potential client, "Condon got screwed by the Raiders on the Quinn deal."
The irony here, as we see it, is that Condon's allegiance to his own interests (if, in the end, his advice to Quinn is to not take the offer) really isn't that much different than Bill Henkel's allegiance to his own interests when he allegedly took a $75,000 kickback from a company that did a deal with his former client LaDainian Tomlinson.
In both cases, the agent advances his personal agenda at the direct financial expense of his client.
The second problem is that, if Quinn doesn't go No. 1, the key spot for him will be No. 3, where the Browns are believed to be debating whether to take Quinn or running back Adrian Peterson. So if Quinn turns down a "lowball" offer at No. 1, he'll be counting on landing at No. 3, where he'd possibly get paid almost as much via the slotting process as he would get under a "lowball" offer from the Raiders.
But Condon's firm, CAA, also represents Peterson. We've previously commented on the potential conflict of interest resulting from this arrangement; if Quinn isn't the guy at No. 1, the conflict at No. 3 comes into much sharper focus.
How in the hell does CAA walk that tightrope? An agent's only job at this time of year is to pimp his client. So if Quinn doesn't do a deal with the Raiders at No. 1, then Tom Condon of CAA will be calling the Browns to get them to take Quinn instead of Peterson, while Ben Dogra of CAA is calling the Browns to get them to take Peterson instead of Quinn.
The unknown factor in all of this is whether Quinn even wants to play for the Raiders, and whether any misgivings about playing for Oakland override his desire to be the No. 1 overall pick.
Still, if Quinn wants to go No. 1 for reasons other than the money, then someone needs to explain to him that the agency representing him has a very real conflict of interest that might be coloring the advice Quinn is getting.
Several years ago, Condon withdrew from the representation of Patriots tight end Benjamin Watson because (as we heard at the time) Condon didn't want to be associated with a six-year deal for a player taken at the bottom of round one. In this specific case, it could be that Condon's best call is to walk away again.
Given the rule imposing a five-day waiting period before a new agent can be signed, however, Quinn would have to finish the Oakland deal without the benefit of an NFLPA-certified agent.
We don't know how it's going to turn out. However it does, who would have thought that the presumptive No. 1 pick from a year ago at this time would fade from the top spot and then potentially re-emerge at the eleventh hour?
