Quick Game Thoughts - Digging for Gold Nuggets in loss to the 49ers edition

[BelichickFan]

Broncos' Strength of Voctory (winning % of teams they've beaten) is .396. Patriots SoV is .515, second only to Seattle. And Denver's is a little artifically high by beating a weak Baltimore who had a good record.

2012 NFL Playoff Standings - National Football League - ESPN

 

[Buchanty]

I like the thread title, it reminds me of an old Yorkshire saying "where there's muck, there's brass" and there was certainly a lot of muck especially in the first half, but plenty to spare in the second as well.

Muck 1

Ball security: I hope they have Ridley and Vereen in early this week to practice and learn. I would add Hernandez to that list - not so much on carrying the rock, but committing to the ball; on the second interception he looked hesitant almost fearful on reaching out for the ball resulting in the 49ers takeaway. Good time to focus on a key aspect of the game (see RB Brown of the Eagles).

Muck 2

Tackling: another early practice request, this game reminded me of our return from the bye week when we faced Buffalo. This is week 15 and we looked porous on D, ST and even O - I hate seeing TB as the last line of protection on a turnover (but having said that - appreciate the effort).

Muck 3

Over Confidence: I really think that the young'uns and a few of the vets got ahead of themselves after the win over the Texans. The first half was a wake up call announcing that very little separates teams in the NFL and you can be down multiple scores in the blink of an eye (49ers learned that one too). I am almost glad they lost, as this lesson will sink in further than if they had won the game. Approaching the playoffs with this loss still reverberating should help stem any recurrence.

Muck 4

Third Down Conversions: 2/15 is embarrassing for this O. The brass in this one is that we managed 5/6 4th down conversions, which is hard to believe. This is tempered by the incomplete 4th down attempt in the 4th quarter, as that as much as the KO return killed the game by allowing the 49ers to kick an easy FG and put the game up almost out of reach (up 2 scores) with only 2 minutes left. I guess McD rolled the dice on that one after 3 consecutive successful 4th down conversions. I wish they would indicate drops on the box scores as I would like to know the effect of dropped passes on the conversion rate. It does send a message to the rest of the league however that 4th and whatever is not a unbeatable challenge for this O.

As a postscript - on this one 33% of those 3rd down attempts were to Lloyd and all of those thrown to him were incomplete, which tempers a little his 190 yds receiving. Some of those were on Brady though, but TB knows the team as a whole needs better execution.

Muck 5

QB Passer Rating: 68.9 passer rating and 55.9 QBR and a very good case study for why it doesn't matter - contrast that with 83.9 and 96.9 achieved by one QB yesterday, who was not the reason his team won. It may knock TB's chances of MVP, but I don't care a fig for that award. He was gutsy, inspiring and relentless and I'll take that in my QB any day, especially in December with the playoffs looming.

Edit: might have to rephrase my comment on Ponder (for it was he with the superior rating), as apparently he had one key play on 4th and 1 that resulted in him scoring. So he was one of the reasons for the win, though it still doesn't explain such high QBR.

 

[Ivan]

Losing always sucks but it was good to see them fight back and put the game in question the way they did, most teams would have folded and they showed a ton of character despite losing at the end. The fact is that the Patriots have gone on big winning streaks during the season heading into the play-offs for a number of years in recent history and then have one game in the play-offs where they falter and the season ends on the wrong note. The road to a Lombardi got a little harder after last night but they faced a really good offense in Houston 2 weeks ago and a great defense last night, and both should prepare them for what they face in the play-offs. They split the games but showed they can stop a great offense and score on a great defense, they should do what they can to get some rest the next 2 weeks and get healthy, they should be able to win these games even resting some players who need it, and they are completely capable of going on the road and beating any team they will face in the play-offs. I believe they are going to go on a 6 game winning streak to close this season out and will hoist the Lombardi when all is said and done, so while last nights loss still sucks I think this will mark the beginning of their championship run.

 

[everlong]

I don't know how the league assigns Hoculi's crew to a game of this magnitude. That was embarrassing. They looked more confused than the replacement refs. Really a game like that should be Steratore's crew or at least somebody like Carey. Hoculi's crew should get a game like KC @ OAK that nobody is watching.

Chandler Jones getting benched is depressing. Ridley and Vereen unable to hold onto the ball likewise. Solder had an up and down night as well. On the other hand Hightower and Francis played really well. Mixed night for the youngsters. Most concerning however is the status of Dennard. If he's unable to go in the playoffs they aren't going very far. It wasn't his best night but he's still so much better than Arrington. Arrington has been OK in the slot but on the outside he is what fans used to think Ellis Hobbs was.

Special teams was a nightmare. Losing contain on the punt fake when you have two players on that side is just awful. The kick return completely changed momentum. They start that drive from inside their own 30 and it's completely different outcome.

Which leads to the defensive call. SF hasn't done anything in over a quarter so you blitz them there instead of making them earn it and one of your starters is out at corner. As it was CK threw that ball short. I think that was a place where you play sound coverage and make them earn it and I've been all for the more aggressive style we've seen of late but not there.

Over all you have to tip your cap to Harbaugh. He showed the stones Kubiak lacks. They came out aggressive and didn't do what they normally do. He setup the run with the pass. SF in general came out aggressive and the Pats were playing slow, conservative and afraid.

I do think if we get the chance to play them again having Gronk will mean the world to this offense.

This pretty much assures that the Patriots will have to do something they haven't in the BB/Brady era. Play wild card weekend and win a SB. There's no chance Denver dumps a game to KC or Cleveland at home. The upside is the AFC has the late game on Saturday wild card weekend which the Pats will just about certainly land. That will also mean they'll have the late game Sunday. Given it will be Brady vs Manning no doubt they get the extra days rest. That could be huge.

I think Denver is over-hyped and played a cupcake schedule but playing in Denver is not to be overlooked. It's been a horror show historically for the Pats over the years. I also think going @Denver and @Houston is going to be a lot to ask. You look at Houston and then SF back to back and how hard that was. Not that it's impossible but there chances took a serious hit. The missed FG against AZ and the two blown leads vs Seattle and Baltimore could ultimately be what dooms this team.

Not just tonight but in general this season the Patriots receivers drop way too many passes. I have no idea where they are vs the rest of the league but it seems every week there's at least 2-4 easy drops.

Great game by Brandon Lloyd.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Which leads to the defensive call. SF hasn't done anything in over a quarter so you blitz them there instead of making them earn it and one of your starters is out at corner. As it was CK threw that ball short. I think that was a place where you play sound coverage and make them earn it and I've been all for the more aggressive style we've seen of late but not there.

As bad as Arrington is on the outside on coverage, one thing he's not criticized for is tackling. Usually he recovers and makes the tackle right after the catch.

Over all you have to tip your cap to Harbaugh. He showed the stones Kubiak lacks. They came out aggressive and didn't do what they normally do. He setup the run with the pass. SF in general came out aggressive and the Pats were playing slow, conservative and afraid.

Best coach outside of NE.

This pretty much assures that the Patriots will have to do something they haven't in the BB/Brady era. Play wild card weekend and win a SB. There's no chance Denver dumps a game to KC or Cleveland at home. The upside is the AFC has the late game on Saturday wild card weekend which the Pats will just about certainly land. That will also mean they'll have the late game Sunday. Given it will be Brady vs Manning no doubt they get the extra days rest. That could be huge.

This is what I was waiting to read. Last year Denver had the huge emotional OT game Sunday vs. Pittsburgh, then came into NE on Saturday and got steamrolled, not even bothering to put up a fight. The first 30+ minutes last night seemed earlily similar, with the Pats looking a bit soft on short rest after an emotional win. Having the full week or that 8th day between games means a lot.

I think Denver is over-hyped and played a cupcake schedule but playing in Denver is not to be overlooked. It's been a horror show historically for the Pats over the years. I also think going @Denver and @Houston is going to be a lot to ask. You look at Houston and then SF back to back and how hard that was. Not that it's impossible but there chances took a serious hit. The missed FG against AZ and the two blown leads vs Seattle and Baltimore could ultimately be what dooms this team.

I cannot remember the last time the Pats beat a fully-equipped Broncos team in Denver. The famous 2003 MNF game came against backup Danny Kanell. The 2000 surprise win came in those early post-Elway doldrum years. Am I missing any?

Unfortunately, the only two teams I see beating Houston on divisional weekend will be playing in Denver. So it does look like the Pats' SB47 run goes through both Denver and Houston. Ugh. Horrible travel. Shades of 2006 (San Diego, then Indy).

Crazy how 12-4 used to win HFA years ago, now gets you a 3rd seed.

Regards,
Chris

 

[mayoclinic]

Crazy how 12-4 used to win HFA years ago, now gets you a 3rd seed.

12-4 got us a #4 seed in 2006, and we still came within a minute of going to the SB.