Putting the offense into focus....so far

[patfanken]

Day Two of FA is in the books. Still lots to do and plenty of time to do it. Still amused by the fans who are pulling their hair out and worrying about why we haven't done more...even though there are close to 6 months before we play a meaningful game.

Love it or hate it, one of BB's greatest attributes is that he's not only willing to make tough decisions, he's not afraid to make changes ahead of when it seems he has to. Sure the offense was still #1. Many coaches would ride that wave until they started to see a significant fall off. BB is staying ahead of the curve. The "Welker-centric" offense was reaching a point of diminishing returns. Good defenses were starting to catch up. He tried to start to make the transition last season, but injuries forced him to continue the familiar pattern.

The decision to move from Welker is a calculated risk for certain. But clearly the FO feels that while the defense will have to continue to grow and improve, so does the offense. I think they would have rather have made this transition WITH Welker than without him. (It was reported that Amendola was coming even if Wes came back), but were comfortable if he didn't

They have made the decision to get more balance into the passing game. Welker wasn't going to get close to the 100+ receptions he's gotten in the past, even if he stayed. Getting Welker the looks necessary to catch that many balls would have meant that the rest of the offense wouldn't be balanced both in distribution to a wider variety of receivers, and where they caught the ball. What would be best for the team was NOT necessarily best for Welker. He can now go and be Manning's binky. The Pats are hopefully going to build a passing game where Brady won't need a single "safety net" to be effective

Amendola is only a start in what might be one off BB's complete positional makeovers. We don't know right now. What we do know....well actual not KNOW exactly, but strongly speculate, is that the Pats want to attack more areas of the field than in the recent past. Make the pass offense less predictable and more dangerous.

I would still love to finally see that big WR who would add to our red zone attack and take some pressure off Gronk. I'd hope that he would also have the speed to create that "deep threat" that everyone lusts for, but that would be a bonus. For this team if I had my choice of Anquan Boldin or Torry Smith, I'm taking Boldin.

Maybe its Donald Jones or a draft pick. We don't know yet. I'm less sure today that Julian Edelman will be back with the Leon Washington signing. The other thing I think the offense needs badly is the presence of that big SY/GL RB. A guy that would make 3rd and 2 NOT an automatic passing down.

I still think that Volmer SHOULD be signed, and the fact that he hasn't been one of the immediate targets of a lot of teams tells me that his back is an issue to more teams than just the Pats. The fact that most of the contracts given out so far, have fallen well below the current OL franchise tag, makes taking a risk on Volmer's health more reasonable. IF part of the offensive change is to attack deeper, then the OL has to be more than just adequate. It needs to be outstanding, and an OL with Volmer at RT has the chance to be exactly that. One without him or a similar talent, the chances of that OL being "outstanding" would be lessened.

BOTTOM LINE - We know the offense is going to transition into something more balanced and aggressive. What we don't know are the people who are going to make up the primary WRs in that offense...at least not all of them. Until we finally get a picture of who the WR's the Pats are going to take to camp and what their skill sets are, it will be hard to even speculate how it would look...not that that's stopped us before...

BTW- I read in a thread something to the effect that the Pats ARE going to get some cap relief from the Fenene Deal. Can anyone confirm or debunk this?

 

[Fencer]

What's your argument again that the Pats' desire to have both Welker and Amendola on the roster illustrates their intention to deemphasize the kind of passes Welker and Amendola tend to catch?

 

[ewg_gestalt]

Maybe its Donald Jones or a draft pick. We don't know yet. I'm less sure today that Julian Edelman will be back with the Leon Washington signing. The other thing I think the offense needs badly is the presence of that big SY/GL RB. A guy that would make 3rd and 2 NOT an automatic passing down.

Washington is a KR/RB. Edelman is a PR/WR/lots of other stuff (even if he's doing at it a barely NFL-caliber level, remember how much he's making!). Washington's also on a one-year deal. I don't see how this reduces the need for Edelman at all.

 

[everlong]

BTW- I read in a thread something to the effect that the Pats ARE going to get some cap relief from the Fenene Deal. Can anyone confirm or debunk this?

They only received permission to have it go to a hearing. So its sill pending.

 

[bagwell368]

Gronk and AH will ply the middle of the field (and sometimes Ballard)

AH will take more snaps at slot than any other player

DA will primarily play wide

BB will sign a FA(s) and/or draft a WR to fill 3 more WR roster spots, my best guess (some of the following): Edelman, Donald Jones, Kevin Walter, draft Justin Hunter, 7th round or UDFA Mark Harrison

Catches will be more spread out than the past few years. RB's led by Vereen will catch more balls as well.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

What's your argument again that the Pats' desire to have both Welker and Amendola on the roster illustrates their intention to deemphasize the kind of passes Welker and Amendola tend to catch?

You could definitely use that as evidence that the Pats plan on using Amendola differently than Welker. Letting Welker walk for a rather small amount of money could indicate they're moving on from his specific role.

 

[patfanken]

What's your argument again that the Pats' desire to have both Welker and Amendola on the roster illustrates their intention to deemphasize the kind of passes Welker and Amendola tend to catch?

I ts not MY argument, it was the Pats'. I just mention it because I read that they had told Wes they wanted him back and DA was coming. Clearly they thought that both could be used. I can only speculate how. Maybe the knowledge that DA was coming regardless, was one of the reasons he chose to leave. I don't know. Just like I don't "know" exactly what the Pats offense is going to transition to. I just know its going to transition into something different. It may be slightly different or I wouldn't put it past Bill to do something radically different. All we can be fairly certain of is that they will attempt to be more balanced in the passing game, and attack more areas of the field

 

[chasa]

Gronk and AH will ply the middle of the field (and sometimes Ballard)

AH will take more snaps at slot than any other player

DA will primarily play wide

BB will sign a FA(s) and/or draft a WR to fill 3 more WR roster spots, my best guess (some of the following): Edelman, Donald Jones, Kevin Walter, draft Justin Hunter, 7th round or UDFA Mark Harrison

Catches will be more spread out than the past few years. RB's led by Vereen will catch more balls as well.

I see a lot of 3 te sets

 

[signbabybrady]

Nice read as usual PFK.

But I am going to take a different stance just for the sake of discussing the now without worrying about the potential changes to the offense.

Say what you will about Amendola's skill level and his ability to stay on the field. Bottom line he was the most like Wes in FAency.

We were the number one offense in the league last year. By bringing in Amendola and until someting happens with Lloyd this allows us to albeit on paper look almost the exact same as last year. We still need to fill out the WR group to at the very least replace or re-up what Edelman and Branch and the rest got you.

We can also right off the bat just assume DA wont get close to 120 catches.

Where does that leave this offense right now. Well obviously based on the above it leaves us behind last years production but one that would seem very much capable of coming close.

And we are only a few days into Free Agency and there is still plenty of work to do including the possibility of upgrading Lloyd and Edelman.

We let Wes walk and brought in half the guy for half the price and he has potential to be more than just half of Wes. From there the rest of the work will have to make up the rest of the difference which in reality being number one overal on offense is not a requirement and if they can vastly improve the D and keep the O even somewhat close to last years production that is a huge win.

 

[Metaphors]

Love it or hate it, one of BB's greatest attributes is that he's not only willing to make tough decisions, he's not afraid to make changes ahead of when it seems he has to. Sure the offense was still #1. Many coaches would ride that wave until they started to see a significant fall off. BB is staying ahead of the curve. The "Welker-centric" offense was reaching a point of diminishing returns. Good defenses were starting to catch up. He tried to start to make the transition last season, but injuries forced him to continue the familiar pattern.

Exactly right. Welker is a high volume receiver. There are times when he can suck the oxygen out of the offense. Not enough to dramatically hurt their efficiency, but it can start to make drives more difficult than they should be. Run for 3, pass to Welker for 5, convert 3rd-n-2. Rinse and repeat. Pats can do this consistently at extremely low risk, so it is tempting to keep it up. Except those 3rd-n-2 situations get much harder in big road games and in the playoffs.

The decision to move from Welker is a calculated risk for certain. But clearly the FO feels that while the defense will have to continue to grow and improve, so does the offense. I think they would have rather have made this transition WITH Welker than without him. (It was reported that Amendola was coming even if Wes came back), but were comfortable if he didn't

This is the part some in the media (Schein in particular) have totally missed. The Pats didn't "botch" the Welker situation. It played out almost exactly how they thought it would. They've known for a while Welker wouldn't accept their market assessment before FA. The Pats stuck to their assessment and were eventually proven correct (or close). They assumed they would lose Welker, had Plan B in case they did but left the door open if he came back willing to meet their price (maybe lowered once Amendola signed). He didn't and moved on. No muss, no fuss. Pats even had the ability to sign him after the Denver offer but chose not to. So they clearly didn't "lose" Welker to Denver...they just competed on their terms and were content with losing him.

They have made the decision to get more balance into the passing game. Welker wasn't going to get close to the 100+ receptions he's gotten in the past, even if he stayed. Getting Welker the looks necessary to catch that many balls would have meant that the rest of the offense wouldn't be balanced both in distribution to a wider variety of receivers, and where they caught the ball. What would be best for the team was NOT necessarily best for Welker.

Amendola is only a start in what might be one off BB's complete positional makeovers. We don't know right now. What we do know....well actual not KNOW exactly, but strongly speculate, is that the Pats want to attack more areas of the field than in the recent past. Make the pass offense less predictable and more dangerous.

I think you are seeing this play out today. Amendola, Jones and potentially E.Sanders are players that are less specialized. Lloyd as well if he is back. So I think you are exactly right that this year is the transition (reversion?) to a balanced distribution of targets.

I would still love to finally see that big WR who would add to our red zone attack and take some pressure off Gronk. I'd hope that he would also have the speed to create that "deep threat" that everyone lusts for, but that would be a bonus. For this team if I had my choice of Anquan Boldin or Torry Smith, I'm taking Boldin.

I don't see Boldin as being particularly "big" but I think I get your point. Strong with body positioning, able to elevate and hands like vice grips. Lloyd has the hands and hops but there is something missing that keeps him from being the red zone guy you describe. There are a good number of players of that mold that should be around late in the draft (Rodney Smith, Marcus Davis, Mark Harrison) and could possible be the Givens-type player for Brady.

The other thing I think the offense needs badly is the presence of that big SY/GL RB. A guy that would make 3rd and 2 NOT an automatic passing down.

I've been too agreeable so I'll part ways with you here. Ridley or Bolden are plenty big enough to push forward 6 feet. Unfortunately this is an area where Wendell and Connolly don't excel so the RBs often get ripped before they get started. I'm thinking this is where the TEs are the answer. Gronk, Ballard and Hernandez can line up tight and force the defense to go big. But they can shift everyone off the line (including the RB if they go complete spread) which would almost certainly expose someone on defense that just can't cover. Do that enough and you start keeping them in base or nickel even in running situations. I wouldn't mind seeing a swing guard that is a mauler and allows Connolly to shift to center in short yardage.

I still think that Volmer SHOULD be signed, and the fact that he hasn't been one of the immediate targets of a lot of teams tells me that his back is an issue to more teams than just the Pats.

There is only one explanation I will accept. Vollmer is effectively signed but they are waiting until FA is more fleshed out (in case they need the cash) before finalizing the distribution of his cap hits. Other situations will not be tolerated and I refuse to leave the reality I've built up for myself.

BOTTOM LINE - We know the offense is going to transition into something more balanced and aggressive. What we don't know are the people who are going to make up the primary WRs in that offense...at least not all of them. Until we finally get a picture of who the WR's the Pats are going to take to camp and what their skill sets are, it will be hard to even speculate how it would look...not that that's stopped us before...

Not sure why this reasoning isn't conventional wisdom. The Pats are sitting on plenty of current and future cap space and they always spend to the cap. Yet people continue to think they are cheap and are being out-maneuvered. Isn't it more likely that the Pats are transitioning their WR corps one last time for Brady's final 5 year run? Remember, Gronk, Hernandez and Amendola are all signed through the end of Brady's contract. Get the remaining WR spots settled now and Brady will be throwing to the same targets for several years...with all of them in their prime during this window.

 

[Clonamery]

Isn't it more likely that the Pats are transitioning their WR corps one last time for Brady's final 5 year run? Remember, Gronk, Hernandez and Amendola are all signed through the end of Brady's contract. Get the remaining WR spots settled now and Brady will be throwing to the same targets for several years...with all of them in their prime during this window.

Great point.

 

[DarrylS]

Not sure why this reasoning isn't conventional wisdom. The Pats are sitting on plenty of current and future cap space and they always spend to the cap. Yet people continue to think they are cheap and are being out-maneuvered. Isn't it more likely that the Pats are transitioning their WR corps one last time for Brady's final 5 year run? Remember, Gronk, Hernandez and Amendola are all signed through the end of Brady's contract. Get the remaining WR spots settled now and Brady will be throwing to the same targets for several years...with all of them in their prime during this window.

One of the better, more balanced arguments that I have seen in quite a while.. while our defense is excellent in the regular season, when we went up against premier teams in the tournament, we were very predictable.. injuries to Gronk did not help, but with the new folks we seems to be faster and that may help us in the long run.

These moves remind me of the '01 team, not a lot of stars.. but a lot of complimentary players, with a mix of young and old.. and some legendary "bridge" players who will provide leadership. And of course Brady..

 

[AzPatsFan]

One of the better, more balanced arguments that I have seen in quite a while.. while our defense is excellent in the regular season, when we went up against premier teams in the tournament, we were very predictable.. injuries to Gronk did not help, but with the new folks we seems to be faster and that may help us in the long run.

These moves remind me of the '01 team, not a lot of stars.. but a lot of complimentary players, with a mix of young and old.. and some legendary "bridge" players who will provide leadership. And of course Brady..

The whiner idjuts forget that by the second Q of the AFCCG, the Pats were playing without Jones, Talib, Gronk, Stallworth, Love, and assorted others. That was not the same team that got them to the AFCCG.