Presume That We Keep Revis and McCourty at $20M a Year

[mgteich]

We're getting close. So, as decisions start to be made, I thought that I'd start a 4th thread on the cap ramifications of our decisions, another fresh start.

We have one that focuses on Wilfork and Mayo, another that focuses on Revis, and a 3rd flaming contest over McCourty.
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OK, most everyone wants us to sign Revis (saving $10M or so) and franchising McCourty if necessary (for almost $10M.

So, that leaves us about $5M OVER the cap with 9 free agents.
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Folks suggest saving $2M on Amendola and $3M on a Wilfork pay cut.

Now we are even with the cap with EIGHT free agents, and some needs.
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There will be a lot of work to do to maintain the offense, defense and special teams, especially if we don't want to move major money into the future. I would note that 2016 will be presumed to absorb $35M - $40M a year for Hightower, Jones, Solder, McCourty (or another corner) and Revis. So, while we will always move some money forward, we are somewhat constrained. We'll might need a Brady and Gostkowksi restructure
to pay for the rookies, Practice Squad and for an in-season reserve. That would push a manageable $6M or so into the future.

Miguel has been diligent and creative about suggesting ways that cap money might be created. There are serious tradeoffs as Belichick makes room for signing ANY of the free agents or their replacements from free agency.

Before you all tell me how easy this is, I will note that Mayo has a $4.5M guarantee against injury and cutting him before March 10th to help sign free agents would save NO cap money at all, NONE.

 

[supafly]

This is pretty much what I've been trying to say all along, although I think it's being viewed as pessimistic.

I just cannot reasonably see any way that we can keep all of the "important players," let alone some of these expensive fringe players like Shane Vereen etc.

Either way, Belichick certainly has his work cut out for him, and we'll have to see what the next few weeks bring about.

 

[BobDigital]

It's fine if you have that point of view. Personally I do not believe BB wants to push expenses forward ad infinitum but he will back load a few contracts to stroke egos but we all know he will not pay those.

I do not think we can keep both for 20 million. I think 25 will probably be closer at least after this first year.

Jones/Hightower will need to be paid next year but we can pick up 5th year options if we want and hold it off for another year before doing a long term deal. Also I will assume that is the year Wilfork & Mayo come completely off the books and will probably make that affordable.

 

[patsfan-1982]

they cant keep everyone that's the NFL, Devin McCourty and Revis are the only unreplaceable FA's but even with that said they cant pay Revis 20 million they have to work out a deal fast or let him go

 

[mgteich]

It's fine if you have that point of view. Personally I do not believe BB wants to push expenses forward ad infinitum but he will back load a few contracts to stroke egos but we all know he will not pay those.

I do not think we can keep both for 20 million. I think 25 will probably be closer at least after this first year.

Jones/Hightower will need to be paid next year but we can pick up 5th year options if we want and hold it off for another year before doing a long term deal. Also I will assume that is the year Wilfork & Mayo come completely off the books and will probably make that affordable.

Picking up the 5th year option costs more than a long-term deal. Consider Solder. Solder would cost less than $7.45M if we sign him to a long term deal. The situation will be the same for Hightower and Jones in 2016.

The $20M AAV number is equal to $13M for Revis and $7M for McCourty. I'm not sure that the patriots will pay more. Perhaps, the team would go to $22M ($1M more for each), perhaps not.

I have no reason to believe that Mayo will be completely off the books in 2016. He will be 30 years old. We'll see if he is healthy and is part of the best linebacking corp in the NFL.

 

[mgteich]

I'll post this question in a different way. After we sign Revis, franchise McCourty, give pay cuts to Amendola and Wilfork, we will be EVEN with the cap.

Mayo is basically locked in until he passes a physical. At that point, a reasonable restructuring can take place, and will likely happen.
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Now that we have discussed this for a few weeks, how do you all think that we'll re-sign ANY free agents?
I find it unlikely that we will re-sign Gostkowski, Vereen or Ayers. Each will cost at least $3M.

 

[kennyb]

Cut Wilfork put mayo on incentives reduce amendola that's about 12m maybe. Put Brady into signing bonus that's another 3 or 4.

So that's 15m in new room.

Say goodbye to mccourty vereen. Sign branch ayers for low money and the draftees.

Not a good plan imo.

 

[JMC00]

So this is the Pats are doomed in FA thread?

 

[mgteich]

So this is the Pats are doomed in FA thread?

Nope.

That thread comes on the first day of free agency when we know whether we have agreements with Revis, McCourty, and Gostkowski, and what other moves we have made.

Personally I expect us to re-sign Connolly, Casillas, Branch, Ridley and White. The cap effect would be about $5M and would be covered by a restructure or two.

 

[Patriots1364life]

I would cut wilfork. I like big vince but not at 8.5. Mayo will restructure but idk about vince.

 

[Wilfork#75]

It's certainly going to be interesting how the Pats approach things going forward. I think it is important to prioritize our current and future free agents because some tough decisions may need to be made. Of the 5 guys you mentioned I would rank their importance:

1. Revis
2. McCourty
3. Hightower
4. Jones
5. Solder

Revis and McCourty to me a no-brainers. I would keep them at all costs, even if it means having to sacrifice one of our future free agents.

I wouldn't be giving Solder a big, long term contract. His health scares me and I don't think he will be worth the kind of money he could demand. If I were more comfortable moving Vollmer to LT I would even look to trade Solder now, save over $7mil against the cap and probably get a nice pick in return. Either way I'm looking for our LT of the future with a high pick in this years draft.

The interesting one for me is going to be Jones. I love the guy and he flashes so much potential but would anyone here pay him like a top tier pass rusher? Right now I certainly wouldn't. To me he hasn't lived up the hype or expectations but he has always shown the potential to. I would pick up the 5th year option on him and make him prove that he is a top tier pass rusher before I pay him like one. Hightower I think has proved his value to this team and I would definitely look to sign long term.

I think a lot of what we do this offseason is going to come down to what happens with big Vince. Hopefully he plays ball and we can keep him at a reduced rate, otherwise we are probably gonna have to make the tough decision to let him go.

I have no idea what is going to happen but it will definitely be interesting to watch everything unfold.

 

[BobDigital]

Picking up the 5th year option costs more than a long-term deal. Consider Solder. Solder would cost less than $7.45M if we sign him to a long term deal. The situation will be the same for Hightower and Jones in 2016.

The $20M AAV number is equal to $13M for Revis and $7M for McCourty. I'm not sure that the patriots will pay more. Perhaps, the team would go to $22M ($1M more for each), perhaps not.

I have no reason to believe that Mayo will be completely off the books in 2016. He will be 30 years old. We'll see if he is healthy and is part of the best linebacking corp in the NFL.

Well the 5th year option is not ideal but cheaper than a franchise tag at least. Solder is a higher pick than both so i think neither Hightower/Jones are quite that high. I would rather they extend both and it probably be cheaper but the 5th year options are probably manageable if a long term deal can not be worked out.

Also we are not far off from the 20M mark. I just think Revis is closer to 14M than 13M and McCourty is closer to 8 than 7. I think they would go that and those are fair amounts. Hopefully both are willing to take a bit of a cut to stay.

We seem to agree Wilfork is gone. Mayo I think he not completely off the books but cut and mostly off which saves them 7.5M or so that year with only 2.5 In dead money for that year and about the same next.

I do not think they will want to invest a lot of money in 3 LBs if they only are in their base less than 40% of the time. Just my feeling. Maybe a trade is possible too. We will see.

 

[supafly]

Well the 5th year option is not ideal but cheaper than a franchise tag at least. Solder is a higher pick than both so i think neither Hightower/Jones are quite that high. I would rather they extend both and it probably be cheaper but the 5th year options are probably manageable if a long term deal can not be worked out.

While it's better than a franchise tag, the possibility exists that they could be looking at the 5th year option for at least a couple of the three players, which will be insanely expensive.

Solder was taken at #17, Chandler at #21, and Hightower at #25--so they're all within eight picks of each other in the first round, and all three will be very expensive. After you get out of the first ten picks, players #11-32 are all the same in terms of the average of the highest 25 paid players at their position, so it really doesn't matter at all.

We seem to agree Wilfork is gone. Mayo I think he not completely off the books but cut and mostly off which saves them 7.5M or so that year with only 2.5 In dead money for that year and about the same next.

I doubt Mayo gets cut. I think he's an excellent candidate for taking less money, but I don't think that Belichick cuts him.

 

[patsfan-1982]

I'll post this question in a different way. After we sign Revis, franchise McCourty, give pay cuts to Amendola and Wilfork, we will be EVEN with the cap.

Mayo is basically locked in until he passes a physical. At that point, a reasonable restructuring can take place, and will likely happen.
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Now that we have discussed this for a few weeks, how do you all think that we'll re-sign ANY free agents?
I find it unlikely that we will re-sign Gostkowski, Vereen or Ayers. Each will cost at least $3M.

in a perfect world they re-sign Revis at 12 million per give McCourty a long team deal 8 million per a lil back loaded and they re-sign Gost. rework a few other contracts and Ayers Vereen and branch you throw a number at them and let them hit the market like Edelman if they come back great if not move on,

here is the way I see it you cant pay a 30 year old Revis, Tom Brady type money but you also cant cut him just to bring back a hand full of roll players. as long as McCourty and Revis are back and they have the money to sign Draft picks and a few camp vets to see who sticks I am happy

 

[mgteich]

I doubt Mayo gets cut. I think he's an excellent candidate for taking less money, but I don't think that Belichick cuts him.

Agreed. However, I suspect that Mayo's new contract will be signed after the team knows more about his health. If he isn't ready to pass a physical, I don't think would want to pass on the $4.50M guarantee for injury in the contract. There is lots of room for cuts and/or moving some money to NLTBE bonuses. I expect that a $4M cap savings is there, at least $3M, but not in the next month.

As a reminder to all, if we cut Mayo before March 10th, while he still injured, there would be no cap savings at all.