Looking at who isn't practicing for the Colts, I think the Pats could win this one in a blowout. Their top CB is on IR. They hope their #2 guy may return Sunday, but hasn't practiced yet this week. Neither has the #4 CB or Freddie Keaho or Reggie Wayne for that matter. These injuries are too much for the Colts to overcome in my mind.
Assuming those guys are out or at least far less than 100%, my prediction is:
Pats win 31-17.
Even assuming all those players play and are close enough to 100% to contribute, I predict:
Pats win 27-24
I think Jackson not there to cover Welker in the slot and Hayden, after missing nearly a month with a significant knee injury, covering Moss creates significant mismatches in the Pats' favor (although not as bad if Jennings has to cover Moss). I think Wayne is good for a TD difference on the other side.
P.S. for the contest purpose, I will use the 31-17 score as my official answer. Not confident about that score until I see the official injury report, but it will be a far sweeter score to win the contest on.