It's pretty clear that if Collins had been in a functional college program he would have been a big name player. As is, though, his development is pretty incredible: from high school quarterback to having his position changed every year on a hapless, winless small-conference team, to wearing the green dot and making plays all over the field as a 2nd-year pro. And still improving, fast.
For all that we rightly bemoan a string of 2nd-round Pats busts, the fact is they also have some spectacular round-2 triumphs in Collins, Gronkowski and Vollmer. (When you hear the stat that the league only hits on half of 2nd rounders, remember that a player like Pat Chung counts as a hit. Gronk et al are off the charts.)
Time for a rant.
The media, and much of this board, has the expectation that every draft pick should become a star. That's not only unrealistic - and draft experts like Baltimore assistant GM Eric DeCosta openly acknowledge that the draft is a crapshoot, even for the experts doing their homework and with all the resources available to them - but also unfeasible. If teams hit on a higher percentage of their draft picks they wouldn't be able to afford keeping all of them beyond their rookie contracts, due to the salary cap. Good teams acknowledge this uncertainty and plan for it. BB trades down; the Ravens let FAs go when the market overvalues them, and use the extra comp picks to pipeline more players. Extra draft picks are very valuable - they give teams the ability to move around freely in the draft, and to take some calculated risks. Recently BB has developed a practice of acquiring low-cost veterans by exchanging draft picks rather than giving them up, so that he retains the same number of "chances" in the draft.
Having a low-cost guy on his rookie deal produce is a GM's dream. The converse is having a high-priced player who doesn't produce. Those are killers. So smart teams like the Pats are very careful who they pay big money to, especially external FAs with whom they don't have direct experience.
People bemoan guys like Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon as "busts". There are lots of ways of measuring busts. These guys have not developed into starters, or major rotational guys, so they have not met hopes in some respects. But they are not unproductive. Both are good STers, and both have performed well in limited duty this year, including yesterday. One way to assess the "success" of a draft pick is whether they get a 2nd deal from the team, and both Harmon and Wilson are likely to move on after their rookie deals expire. (Aside: the Pats have drafted quite well by this standard.) But getting decent depth and ST production from the back end of the roster at low cost isn't to be despised. There are many players taken around the same time as those guys who have already been jettisoned by their original teams. Even Josh Boyce is still on the PS, has won practice player of the week awards, and provides reserve depth at minimal cost, with some (albeit long shot) potential to develop into something more. Guys like Fleming and Stork, who become significant contributors as rookies, are gold.
And then there are guys like Collins, Gronk and Vollmer - guys who play at a pro bowl level early into their rookie deals. Those guys are lottery winners. Collins is Gronk on defense - a freak who teams have to account for on every single pay, with the ability to blow things up at any time. He can do more things well than almost any other player in the league, and he is developing football intelligence, consistency and sound technique. If he makes another leap he will be a legitimate candidate in the discussion of best defensive players not named JJ Watt. The DBs say that he could probably play safety, he could be a 10+ sack/year guy if kept on the edge and allowed to rush, he can match up with TEs and RBs, he can play MLB. He can block kicks. He's a 4 down player. Hell, he could probably be a terrific move TE if the Pats wanted to use him there. No defensive player other than Watt has as much freakish ability as Collins. And yet even as recently as 2 months ago people were talking about him as a "bust", a "bad draft pick", and "slow". Which simply underscores how inept most people are at assessing talent and production.
