Pats are #1 in DVOA again... (updated through week 12)... but the Ratbirds are closing...

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oldrover

"You're gonna have to serve somebody..."
So that's cool. :)

Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Must be a good thing. But to me, it sounds a little out there... a little unsettling...

like...





...crazy Joe D'VOA. o_O
 

luuked

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To put it into one sentence:

Think of it as a statistic that shows you how much better you do than the average NFL team.

It is a better indicator than a lot of other "magical" stats and definitely better than looking at individual numbers. Obviously it comes with its own set of issues but so does any metric that tries to condense the game of football into numbers.
 
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Kasmir

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
THE ULTRA-SHORT VERSION:
DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

THE SHORT VERSION:
DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.​

This page explains everything in detail: Methods To Our Madness | Football Outsiders
 

jmt57

Moderator
Staff member
While it is far more difficult to grasp, over the years I have found DVOA to be a much more accurate measure then the official NFL ranking of yardage, or - somewhat surprisingly - even rankings based on points allowed/points scored. (The latter does not take into account special teams scoring, turnovers resulting in points or superior field position, etc.)
 

primetime

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DVOA and EPA (expected points added per play) are the two best team stats. For EPA, the Patriots currently sit absurdly high on defense and right at the league average on offense. The Patriots were actually below the league average but the average fell last week while they were on bye...
 

Bleedthrough

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

DVOA is the best offensive stat imo. It penalizes teams for playing in a dome/easy schedules. Pats are 11th in offense right now, need top 10 by seasons end to extend the streak
 

TheRainMaker

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Anybody catch during the Ravens game Pro Football Focus ranked Stephon Gilmore the 20th best CB?
 

fnordcircle

The poster who James White said inspires him.
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This season. I brought it up during the game day thread and ......crickets.

I mean if you want to say he's top 5 I'm not gonna bother arguing but if you're telling me they really think there are 19 teams who wouldn't trade their CB1 for Gilmore straight up that is insanity.
 

TheRainMaker

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
I mean if you want to say he's top 5 I'm not gonna bother arguing but if you're telling me they really think there are 19 teams who wouldn't trade their CB1 for Gilmore straight up that is insanity.
The only thing I may have misread is it could be for all players. However, other players had positional rankings so who knows?
 

primetime

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Anybody catch during the Ravens game Pro Football Focus ranked Stephon Gilmore the 20th best CB?

They have Jonathan Jones as #1. Safe to say both are having absurd years, but Gilmore goes against a team's best receiver. He's a DPOY candidate.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

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Points are fake ...

Pats DVOA after 10 weeks
O D
38.5 1027.5

Next highest for D is SF at 761.8
Carolina 640.7
Chicago 458.4. Chicago's offense is one of the worst in football at 506.1.
Both Carolina & Chicago have bad O's that are holding their teams back.
 

fnordcircle

The poster who James White said inspires him.
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The only thing I may have misread is it could be for all players. However, other players had positional rankings so who knows?

Top 20 overall players would be fine. Certainly not worth a ton of arguing about.
 

Joker

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I watch the NFL to ESCAPE the incredibly brain draining semesters of statistical analyses I endured at B.U. a half century ago ...jeezus krist...it's a gladiatorial SPORT not an egghead dweeb convention
 

Joker

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I'm on MY team...Team Joe Kerr...I manage a number of my own educational and social institutions such as Joe Kerr's Church of Good Looks and the attendant School Of Good Looks....all moderately priced for TODAY'S man on the go...;)
 
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