Double edge sword...which one of your offensive lineman spoke of.
Spread em out? Means you put more pressure on the OL against a great front to hold up if that initial quick throw isn't there.
But I think that is the plan for NE. As a massive Panther fan I will say...the spread em out dink and dunk isn't the type offense we would prefer to face. Our scheme general in ideal situations is to give those short passes up.....but we have to alter that against a team that chooses to do it (and Brady is an all time great).
I would like to ask a question. I do fully understand Brady has been limited in terms of recieving weapons this year....but he just hasn't looked himself overall on the year? Do Patriot fans agree with that or put it purely on limited weapons.
I'm sure Carolina's plan will be to keep on keepin on....run, take what the D gives and eat up the clock with LONG ball control drives limiting Brady's shots against a stout D. Carolina use to be a big play machine during Newton's first 2 years but the new OC has altered this identity and it is working. Carolina has been the best in the league at it. Newton has been on of the best 3rd down and short throwers in the NFL this year...surprisingly. Most of the "this is how you beat Newton" standards don't apply. He has had great accuracy under pressure....heck, he is probably at this worst unpressured with open guys deep this year
I'd say it's appeared to be 70% weapons, 30% him, but it's hard to tell because they run so many option routes. Sometimes it's borderline impossible to tell if he missed the throw or if he and the receiver made different reads. It's really impossible to overstate this, though:
Player Receptions
Welker 118
Lloyd 74
Gronk 55
Hernandez 51
Woodhead 40
Edelman 21
Branch 16
Vereen 8
Ridley 6
Hooman 5
Fells 4
Bolden 2
Stallworth 1
Winslow 1
That's 402 total receptions in 2012, and 368 came from players who were unavailable for the first half of the season. 91% of his completions in 2012 were to people who were gone in 2013.
Welker 1,354
Lloyd 911
Gronk 790
Hernandez 483
Woodhead 446
Edelman 235
Vereen 149
Branch 145
Hooman 109
Fells 85
Stallworth 63
Ridley 51
Winslow 12
Bolden 11
That's 4,844 receiving yards, of which 4,438 yards was unavailable for most/all of the first half of 2013. Again, 91%
Touchdowns:
Gronk 11
Welker 6
Hernandez 5
Lloyd 4
Woodhead 3
Edelman 3
Vereen 1
Stallworth 1
34 receiving touchdowns, of which 30 were gone. 88%
So yes, while people typically understand the "his weapons were missing" argument on some level, they really don't understand the degree of it because it's unprecedented. Furthermore, it was exacerbated by the fact that the guy brought in to replace a ton of that production, Amendola, was also gone. No matter how you slice it, the simple fact of the matter is that for the first half of the season, the Patriots were missing 90% of the 2012 passing offense, as well as the primary guy brought in to replace that 90%.
Meanwhile, Belichick decided to get cute with the running game for god knows why, depriving the offense of by far its most effective running threat more often than not. That seems to be changing somewhat, as he's finally unleashing Ridley a bit.
Now, factor in that Gronk is back, and he was the #1 option in both last year's offense and this year's (the 2012 numbers don't reflect it because he missed a bunch of the season). Amendola is back, and he was brought in to replace most of the production of the #2. Vereen should be back, and he took over Woodhead's role late season. If you combine Vereen and Woodhead's 2012 numbers, it becomes clear that we're talking about the 4th most productive player in the passing game.
This still leaves Lloyd and Hernandez unreplaced, but frankly I'll take Dobson over Lloyd anyway. The lack of a second tight end is still a glaring weakness in the lineup, and that alone (as well as the downgrade from Welker to Amendola) means that the offense probably won't be as good at any point this season as it was in 2012. It forces them into more 3WR sets, which are more predictable to defend against, plus our #3WR, whether it's Edelman or Thompkins, is nowhere near as good as Hernandez was.
But still if the first half of 2013's passing game is a 1, and 2012 is a 10, then you're probably looking at a 7 or 8 right now. The change has been that dramatic, and we saw the results against Pittsburgh even with Vereen still gone. Obviously the Pats aren't going to hang 55 on the Panthers, but they won't have to. I think they can put up 35
if the interior of the line holds up against your DTs. If the interior of the line can't hold up, then we're probably looking at a ~14-21 point output. Unfortunately, the interior of the line has a track record of being overmatched in games like this, so I'm definitely worried, but if the Pats can win that matchup, and/or if Gronk can consistently beat Kuechly, I think they win the game. If the opposite happens, then they lose. Either outcome is totally plausible.
The only way the Panthers win a high scoring game is if one of your receivers goes nuts in a way that he hasn't all year. The only way the Pats win a low-scoring slugfest is if Talib comes back and immediately plays at his best-in-the-league level (which he was before he got hurt: shut down AJ Green, Julio Jones, and Jimmy Graham in consecutive weeks). I think Talib will come back, but I think it's a tall order for him to get to that level right away. More realistically, I see him on a limited snap count, used against LaFell on most downs and maybe against Olsen on obvious passing downs. Based on that, I think the Pats can only realistically win a high-scoring game.
