Patriots not receiving serious offers for 3rd pick

[Love The Drake]

It seems that the media has caught word, because I’m now seeing stuff like three 1sts and a 3rd from the Vikings. I don’t think they realize that an extra 3rd is only something like 3% of an increase on the overall trade value.

Media just wants to see Maye or McCarthy throwing to Jefferson vs Bourne.

 

[varjao]

One variable to look at is the team to make a trade like this. Its got to be a team that suck constantly, like the giants.

The Vikings are kinda good and their division is now Rodgers free so you're risking trading with a team that will be in the 20's for the next few years

 

[MrTibbs]

No offer of a bag and the Pats continually saying "we're open for business" tells teams they aren't sold on the QB's at pick 3 and the Pats are probably going in another direction. Harrison Jr. or an offensive tackle. The Pats will look stupid if they say this all week and draft a QB they clearly were saying they were ok not having. If they're not sold on the QB's and not getting a bag, just take the best player in the draft in MHJ and grab a 2nd tier QB or Rattler in the 3rd or 4th round until their dreamy QB comes from where ever or until they get fired.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

One variable to look at is the team to make a trade like this. Its got to be a team that suck constantly, like the giants.

The Vikings are kinda good and their division is now Rodgers free so you're risking trading with a team that will be in the 20's for the next few years

You could be right, but with a rookie QB they could stink for 2025 which is all we need.

 

[Joey007]

No offer of a bag and the Pats continually saying "we're open for business" tells teams they aren't sold on the QB's at pick 3 and the Pats are probably going in another direction.

Some bold leaps of logic going on here.

Why would the Patriots make their intentions that obvious? Why wouldn’t they at least want to listen to major offers? If the offers so far have been considered “laughable” wouldn’t that indicate they do like the QB’s?

 

[ahmed]

Given all the noise around trading down, Pats FO clearly wants to do i for the same reason nobody wants to trade with them: there are not 3 top QBs in the draft.

 

[slash83]

Given all the noise around trading down, Pats FO clearly wants to do i for the same reason nobody wants to trade with them: there are not 3 top QBs in the draft.

Or it could be to drive up the offer? Noise is noise, it’s the draft a lot of bs being put out there.

 

[Ross12]

A trade with the Giants does sound decent. I’ve mentioned it in other threads with the idea of moving back up but let’s just look at it from the idea of moving down and staying there.

3 traded for 6 plus 47 plus a 2025 first. Pats would then sit at the 6th pick and see what happens. If another team trades up with Arizona or LAC at 4/5 and takes the 4th QB then that means that both of Nabers and Odunze are likely still on the board. Conversely, if both AZ and LAC take WRs then QB falls to 6. If you take your WR at 6 you can use picks 34+68 to move up into the 20s and get Penix or Nix and still have pick 47. If you take QB at 6 then you don’t necessarily need to move and can use picks 34, 47, 68 as needed, which is the prime zone of this draft. Possibly trade one of those picks for Aiyuk, Higgins, Brown etc.

 

[lancerman]

One variable to look at is the team to make a trade like this. Its got to be a team that suck constantly, like the giants.

The Vikings are kinda good and their division is now Rodgers free so you're risking trading with a team that will be in the 20's for the next few years

The issue with it all is that you are basically betting on a team to make the trade and then for them to make a mistake in their pick. If the team ends up correctly assessing the value of the player they are trading for, they are going to be good to and they might be in the 20's. Especially since the players picked will either be the most valuable position in QB or WR which in recent years landing a stud WR has been a huge boon to teams for having success.

It all becomes a crapshoot, because if we make the trade, there's a chance that whoever we passed on is a big stud and then the trade wasn't worth it no matter what we got for picks. Especially if it ends up being Maye and it turns a franchise around.

 

[lancerman]

Given all the noise around trading down, Pats FO clearly wants to do i for the same reason nobody wants to trade with them: there are not 3 top QBs in the draft.

I think it's more that there aren't many suitors with the ammunition to make the trade attractive to the Pats and the one that really does (the Vikings) don't have real competition bidding against them and can now play hard ball and lower the price they pay if they want to do it.

One of the downsides to saying that you are open to a trade down very publicly is that you are kinda telling everyone, "we aren't completely sold that whoever the QB that slides to us is a got have it player and we are okay getting someone else". That puts the heat more on the Patriots to decide if they will accept a lower price or blow a high pick on someone they aren't crazy about. You could also be right and the Vikings and other teams might not value the remaining QB's enough to give the value the Pats would like out of the pick.

It's a big game of chicken at this point. Are the Patriots sold on Maye and/or are they going to feel content using the #3 on him

 

[zimmy]

I'm almost certain their dream is to trade down to 6 and take JJ. Possibly by also trading back up to 4 if necessary.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

3 firsts and i am ok to trade our 3rd

But in the end it’s not 3 first. It’s only 2 because you swap one.

It’s just one more pick in 2024 and probably a low 1st round pick in 2025.

I am not trading a potential franchise QB for that.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

We would still need to draft a QB. But it’d be a less exciting one.

A less exciting one and probably a worse one.

It make absolutely no sense to punt on a QB. So if you trade down you get 2 more 1st round pick. 1 this year and 1 next year then in 2-3 years when you are stuck in no man’s land because you don’t have a QB and you’ll need to trade 3 1st to move up to get one and screw up you are even in a worse shape.

What do you do if you trade down with the Vikings to take Penix at 11 and one of the broncos, raiders trade to 8 to take the guy you want?

Just take the QB at 3 and trade down next year if you have to. A trade down would seal the Patriots in mediocrity for a long time. It’s just not worth the risks.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

No offer of a bag and the Pats continually saying "we're open for business" tells teams they aren't sold on the QB's at pick 3 and the Pats are probably going in another direction. Harrison Jr. or an offensive tackle. The Pats will look stupid if they say this all week and draft a QB they clearly were saying they were ok not having. If they're not sold on the QB's and not getting a bag, just take the best player in the draft in MHJ and grab a 2nd tier QB or Rattler in the 3rd or 4th round until their dreamy QB comes from where ever or until they get fired.

Yeah I don’t buy it. I think they like the QB but they realize that they need a lot so they try to entice a team to make a ridiculous offer for them to trade out.

NE beats writer are trending toward the Patriots picking a QB at 3. The only guys that pushed the Patriots trade down narrative are national guys that I think are fueled by teams wanting to trade down that face negative response from the Pats

 

[State]

Good, stay at @3 and take a QB.

Fine Stay at #3 and take the OT1.

 

[Rob0729]

Several things:

- I think the best offers won't really come in until they know who is available at #3. This isn't like last year where the Bears were trading the #1 overall pick and the Panthers knew they could choose any QB or in 2021 where it was known that the Jags were taking Lawrence and the Jets were clear to take Wilson and the 49ers didn't even know who they wanted to take. Although it is generally believed the Commanders will take Daniels, that isn't a guarantee. Depending on who is available at #3 will probably affect who is in on trading and for how much.

- Even if the Pats have the offer they would take, it is in their best interest to claim the offers aren't anywhere near what they want until they accept the deal. You have several teams who want to trade up until #3. If the Commanders draft Maye or McCarthy over Daniels, several other teams might jump into the mix. Saying you have competitive offers only encourage marginal bidding. Claiming all the offer sucks might prompt a team desperate to get the #3 pick to do something stupid and give up way too much.

- The Pats might really not want to trade the pick and just making it clear that a team will have to offer something ridiculously good to change their mind. Even if they absolutely love Drake Maye, there is a point somewhere where a trade offer is too good to pass up. It may be a point that no team would ever do, but who knows. If the Vikes got desperate and stupid and offered a deal similar to what the Panthers gave last year with two firsts (both this year), two seconds, and Justin Jefferson (assuming they think they can't get a deal done with him) for #3, is that too rich for the Pats to pass up even if they think Maye is likely to be become a top 5 QB?

 

[Bill Lee]

Maybe I'm wrong but the various stories, to me at least, say that the Pats want to move down as their first choice. If they were in love with a QB they wouldn't be continuing to encourage trade offers - just as the Bears and Commanders aren't. I think they want to trade down and aren't fully convinced by Maye but they can't get the daddy offer that Carolina gave up last year.

How much do the Pats really like Maye or Daniels if they are open to trading back?

They must not be too enthralled if they are considering it.

I don't think you can read it that way.

It doesn't make sense to do the opposite, signal you've made up your mind and won't be trading down, especially since there are two draft spots ahead of you and you can't be sure what will happen till you're on the clock, nor can your potential trade partners.

It makes more sense to put a value on all the various different outcomes including trading down while understanding that you'll have the most leverage when you're on the clock because a player another team really wants might be still available so they might make an unexpectedly huge offer.

Till then, just say we have yet to get an offer good enough to make us want to trade down, which is obvious since they haven't made a move, but also puts pressure on the others to bid higher.

 

[Triumph]

 

[Ross12]

I'm almost certain their dream is to trade down to 6 and take JJ. Possibly by also trading back up to 4 if necessary.

Yeah, that is probably the "dream" scenario. They get a few extra assets and still get a top QB they like. Ideally getting NYG's 2nd rounder this year. They'd just need to be wary of Minnesota, Vegas or Denver jumping up to 4 or 5 and would have to outbid them if they did - but it would be a lot easier to outbid them with the 6th pick versus 11th/12th/13th. Or alternatively, let it go and take MHJ, Nabers or Odunze at 6 instead, and target Penix or Nix later.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Remember when Lawrence was a "generational talent"? That phrase is so @#$%ing meaningless in the draft process.