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Agree. If Mankins wanted to really cross up the Patriots, he'd sign the tag immediately. That would put pressure on the Patriots to sign him to a long-term deal, or trade him to a team that would.
How would that cross them up? If he signs the tag he has to show up for everything once any work stoppage ends so any decisions are really theirs and the difference in cap hit between his tag price and the hit on a long term deal averaging $8M would be about $3M...and the other differences for the team would be about $9M in signing bonus they didn't have to shell out and $14M in guaranteed committment they don't have to make. Pending what happens in the draft and with Light, that flexibility would be ideal for the team.